Your biggest loss is 22 K in a month, did that not make you sweat? Do you set yourself a limit?
Yes losing that much is not nice but it happens, when it happens I try look at what I have made so far and think to myself well what are you going to do ? Mope about thinking about it , stop betting altogether or just soak it up. Nobody makes me place these bets it was a personal choice. If they lose they lose
You've stated that now you don't make bad bets, and you've defined that even losing bets are not bad bets, at least I think that's what you did, but I'm unsure, any chance of a similar definition of a bad bet?
Gambling is 100% about maths you simply cannot win long term unless the odds you are getting on the event happening are greater than the probability of the event happening.
If we imagine a fair coin toss , heads and harps a bookie pays you out at less than evens on a coin toss , if a bookie was pricing a coin toss he would price it as 10/11 heads 10/11 harps. It should be even/even but the bookie takes his edge.
A bad bet is when you bet in the bookie on either heads or harps , it doesn't matter if it wins or loses it was still a bad bet , long term you will lose money taking these bets.
So everything is price dependent, the reason why most people lose betting is that they ignore the price , they go to the bookies or log in online and back luiz suarez to score first and then celebrate when they win , i'd rather lose money on a good bet than win money on a bad bet. I spoke to someone this morning that told me they had luiz suarez to score first at 9/4 they had 100 quid on , they were proud of this.
Pre match Betfair odds are fairly accurate they give a very good indication of the true probability of an event happening , its like a currency or a stock its there allday and if the price is too high it will be backed and if its too low it will be layed , so it will move about until the odds settle on the agreed price , I take it as a general guide that this pre match odds is as close to the true odds as possible.
So last night suarez was 3.65 near kick off to back at betfair to get the first goal. My man backed him at 3.25 (apologies for using decimal odds its easier and I never work in fractions 3.25 is 9/4 divide 9 by 4 and add 1 ,its your return for 100 stake simplified 100 at 3.25 returns 225 +100 stake so 325)
so the true probability of suarez scoring first was
100/3.65 = 27.39%
my man was only getting paid out 3.25 though not 3.65
So 27.39% of time he wins 225
and 72.31% he loses 100
So if he does that bet 100 times 27.39 wins of 225 - 72.31 losses of 100 = 6162-7231=-1069 so he will lose 1069 or his expected loss per bet is -10.69 .
This is a bad bet and a bet many people make everyday.
I had money on Bendtner to score first because I got news during the day he would be playing , I got him at 8/1 and after team news came out he was alot lower than that say about 7.4
So my bet on Bendtner
100/7.4 13.51 true % of him scoring first
13.51% of time I win 800 10808
86.4% of time i lose 100 -8640
expected value of bet long term 21.68 per 100 invested .
I would rather be on Bendtner first goal scored at a +EV (expected value) than Suarez at a -EV even if it meant that my bet was a loser because long term if you are backing what is more likely to happen than the true probability of event happening you will be up .
So my bet on Bendtner was a good bet I had as much as I could on it and took it in doubles also , first legs of my doubles I would just take any par value match that goes onto my Bendtner bet , so i find bets that are roughly par value and back them , i picked a couple of tennis matches that were on early and had a few hundred doubled with Bentdner in total i had just shy of 1k going onto Bentdner , bookies are more keen to take bets on doubles because they are often a mug bet but they can be used wisely to leverage your stake on the value side.
Above, from your post, I've highlighted the word 'almost'. Are you not conceding there that ultimately you can lose everything. How are you going to bank yoru gains and not touch them, I think that would be important?
The return on investment is high in gambling , you can reuse your money quickly as soon as an event is over you can resuse this same cash and make more out of it , so even a 5% edge repeated over and over again can't bring in great ROI , I don't actually need that much money online , at the moment I have about 100k in bookmakers and ewallets and 200k in bank , I just cream off the top of that 100k online and stick it in the bank. If I lost the 100k I have online now it would be a total black swan event , the chances are very small , some bigger bets I have I will hedge with other gamblers and sometimes we come together to lower the variance.
If you look at optimal strategy on a 20% losses on roulette i mentioned earlier the best way to do this is 3000 on one number
1/37 * win 3000*35 2837
36/37 * lose 2400 -2335
expected value is 502 against 192 doing it on a 50/50 shot but im only going to win that 0.02% so 98% bust rate , splitting this with another gambler or 2 helps extract more profits long terms and lower the variance. So alot of times my liability could be 10k on an event but I have offset some of this to other and they do similar in return ( its very complicated to explain all this sorry, but there is a reason that my returns are solid and not so erractic as you might expect)
Your life does seem a bit lonely, I did have the image of you in a dark room full of computers and odds and sports newspapers, to me a bit like the young men on the trading floors of the big investment firms. Personally I see no difference between what you do and what they do. But it seems to me it's a very young man's game, a lot get burnt out very early, and it seems to be an almost exclusively male world. No idea how you can manage so many accounts and bets, as you said it's exhausting and ultimately unsustainable. So you're get out strategy is good, but it might have to be before 40.
Agree that bookmakers raise the limits if you lose, and ditch you if you win. What do you mean by losing 50K. What does 'palping' a bet mean.
It's not as bad as that ! but can be a bit grim at times , some days are great you work an hour and make 4 figures and life is brilliant others you can't put a foot right and lose alot and have to do lots of admin and you wonder why you are doing this.
I might be burnt out before 40 I don't know to be honest its hard work , i try get out and exercise a few times a week and get a break. The money is there to be made id like to make myself comfortable financially before I stop , ive spent alot of cash before I decided to start saving a bit , 100k a year savings is very realistic so I want to do the best i can with it , hence looking and reading on this site.
Losing 50k , bookmakers go bust all the time , mostly you lose the money you had there , bookmakers palp bets , in the terms and conditions they say they can correct palpable errors a palpable error is a mispriced event , it should really be for stuff like a 10/1 bet priced up at 100/1 accidently you bet on it and it wins and your bet will be void and "palped" they refer to the terms relating to this. But you get bookmakers making questionable decisions sometimes you bet on something at 12/1 and they say it should be 9/1 thats not really palpable but its hard to argue these cases.
Over the years ive lost 50k+ , the casinos can use irregular play clauses and any excuse possible to not pay , winning the money is only half the battle.
