Just listening to a guy from the UK (on the Last Word) saying that the seasonal flu in Britain would normally be involved in between 6000 - 8000 deaths each year.
But swine flu has killed 200 odd.
So is it really that lethal? If you believe the hype, yeah.
Ok. First, what hype? Show me where we've had predictions of Armageddon. And I don't mean references to numbers affected because that's a whole different ball game. You see the hype is actually all in your head. No one is saying this is going to kill half the world or even come as close a proportion of the deaths seen by seasonal flu. That's an assumption made by those who don't understand the difference between an increase in those presenting symptoms (which is all the HSE and every other agency in the world state) and dropping dead on the spot.
Second where do I say I do believe hype or indicate a belief in the hype? Is it because I've read the HSE stats and can see they very clearly state this is a mild condition? Maybe use of "mild" is scare mongering. I dunno, I'm not too up on modern internet vernacular.
The only caveat anyone has ever mentioned is that we don't know how this will develop. And that's it. They've basically stated it may well just puff out of existence, but it may well come back stronger. Influenza is a very simple organism. This is good and bad for us. It's good because it's very easy to develop a nice vaccine, it's bad because its simplicity allows it to mutate and replicate quickly too.
However, unfortunately I have to go over some of those unspeakable things: facts, just to counter the point you make, though I've actually made these points several times before in this thread, alas they don't seem to sink in.
The deaths from seasonal flu are skewed because it affects a greater population of the elderly. It's not a nice thing to say, but the further past 65 you are when you get a dose of the flu, the more likely you are to experience complications as a result. The swine flu is affecting a much younger and healthier population. Another issue is that as a parent if your child is ill, you seek care for them, not always the case with the elderly.
But the age difference alone is enough to say that there will be differences in the mortality rate.
Another issue is again back to the "we don't know" but those deaths and the rate of seasonal flu (around 171 per 100,000) is at its peak. The peak for any flu in the Northern Hemisphere is January, February. We're just in November and the flu symptom rate is way above not only the average, but also the peak rate every recorded in Ireland for seasonal flu. We actually passed the peak rate of seasonal flu at the back end of August, early September. At a time when the flu virus is inactive.
All that says is that we could face a much higher level come the peak period of Jan/Feb 09. Again, just to be very clear no one is saying you'll be stepping over bodies at the check out in Superquinn or that we'll have a plague of zombies (though being honest I really, really hope I do get to see a plague of zombies at some point in my life). Yes it is true all the evil, under the thumb of big pharmachem doctors are saying is that come early next year more people will probably experience flu symptoms than is usual.
Now, that's hardly sending out a message to go and build the air raid shelter, buy a gas mask or stock up on sharp implements for beheading zombies (have mine just in case though).
So that's it. Again, how much clearer can anyone be that the hype and doom is all in other people's heads? It takes about 5 minutes to go to the HSE website and have a scan over their reports just to see people are getting ill, it is mild, but it is increasing.