ringledman
Registered User
- Messages
- 620
Thoughts on the huge recent stockmarket bull run?
Correction here?
Personally, I still think this market has further to run despite the fundamentals P/E's showing expensive markets.
1) There doesn't seem to be a wave of optimism in the markets currently. We can now see that in March the pessimism was severly overdone.
Are the markets now severly over optimistic? I wouldn't say so. I get the impression that many large scale fund investors are still sitting on the sidelines.
2) Past performance would show that bull runs post a major crash rise far more than they have to date - http://www.gannglobal.com/stock-market-forecast-bullish-09-09-01/
The Western markets are still IMO in a long term bear market since 2000, which typically last 18 years or so. Nonethless I do not think the bear market will recommence yet.
Granted a correction yes, but a resumption of a full blown bear market (>20%) not yet.
Marc Faber made some interesting comments recently in which he said the worse things get, the better for stocks as the governmnets will throw more money at it! The better the economies get the worse it will be for stocks as quantitative easing is reduced and interest rates rise!
We certainly are living in interesting times where the fundamentals of investing are not the ony determinor of where to park your money!
Correction here?
Personally, I still think this market has further to run despite the fundamentals P/E's showing expensive markets.
1) There doesn't seem to be a wave of optimism in the markets currently. We can now see that in March the pessimism was severly overdone.
Are the markets now severly over optimistic? I wouldn't say so. I get the impression that many large scale fund investors are still sitting on the sidelines.
2) Past performance would show that bull runs post a major crash rise far more than they have to date - http://www.gannglobal.com/stock-market-forecast-bullish-09-09-01/
The Western markets are still IMO in a long term bear market since 2000, which typically last 18 years or so. Nonethless I do not think the bear market will recommence yet.
Granted a correction yes, but a resumption of a full blown bear market (>20%) not yet.
Marc Faber made some interesting comments recently in which he said the worse things get, the better for stocks as the governmnets will throw more money at it! The better the economies get the worse it will be for stocks as quantitative easing is reduced and interest rates rise!
We certainly are living in interesting times where the fundamentals of investing are not the ony determinor of where to park your money!