Predictions on AAM

I suppose the "Has John O' Donoghue resigned yet" is a more recent one.
 
DrMoriarty said:
Bookmark [broken link removed] for 11 years down the road. :rolleyes:
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Yep - thats an odd one - how they can predict the level of profit that far ahead when they can't even predict the exchequer deficit levels for the current year.
 
A stopped watch is correct two times a day.

With all the posts on aam you are always going to find ones that were spot on , and loads that were a mile off.
 
jhegarty said:
A stopped watch is correct two times a day.

With all the posts on aam you are always going to find ones that were spot on , and loads that were a mile off.
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In that case it is better to have a stopped clock?

The ones that were miles off were telling the time in a parallel universe?

edit: speaking of predictions, Alan Turing predicted in 1950 that by the end of the 20th century computers would have a billion words of memory. A standard word is four bytes, so he predicted 4 billion bytes or roughly 4 gigabytes. ( http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Moore's_Law#encyclopedia ). That seems a remarkably accurate prediction to me!
 
yoganmahew said:
edit: speaking of predictions, Alan Turing predicted in 1950 that by the end of the 20th century computers would have a billion words of memory. A standard word is four bytes, so he predicted 4 billion bytes or roughly 4 gigabytes. ( http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Moore%27s_Law#encyclopedia ). That seems a remarkably accurate prediction to me!
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I'd be a bit cynical about this prediction. A billion is a nice, round and probably for the 50s and their view of the future, suitably outlandish figure.

If he had said a million it wouldn't have sounded 'crazee' enough. Is it not just a bit of a coincidence that 4 gigs equates to a billion words?
 
jhegarty said:
Do you have a source for that quote ?
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Other than the one I gave?

Let me have a rummage through my 1950s papers by fathers of modern computing... darn, seem to have missed that one. I'll put it on my wish list! :eek:
 
truthseeker said:
Just roaming around some old threads there, got me thinking that AAM is wonderful to use in a retrospective sense, go back and look at old predictions and the reasons behind them, did they come true etc...

Heres one from before its time:
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=57466&postcount=8
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The trouble with predictions like this is human behaviour. An apartment worth €300k at the time of the prediction probably peaked at €400k a couple of years later is now priced at €225k.

You can have all the fundamentals correct but it can be frustrating sitting things out in an irrational market. The lesson I'd take is invest based on fundamentals long term. Any short term preictions need to take account of very volatile/irrational behavioural patterns.
 
Complainer said:
Are prices more than 20% below 2005 levels?
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In some areas they are down almost 50% of 2005 levels (and in fact its hard to say for definite because one only sees the asking prices, not the actual sale prices).

My own place is down 50% of the height of the boom (not when I bought thankfully).
I also recently assisted a pal selling a place that sold for 50% of its boom time valuation. Its asking price was higher - but what it actually went for was 50% down.
 
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