On what basis?I know discussing individual shares is not permitted on AAM, but in general, do people think it is a good time to start buying? Personally, I'm edging towards buying (but need to convince Mrs. Firefly ).
I know discussing individual shares is not permitted on AAM, but in general, do people think it is a good time to start buying? Personally, I'm edging towards buying (but need to convince Mrs. Firefly ).
judging by the share prices today, this judgement does seem to be a positive. Why is that? Does anyone know?Do you see the Liam Carroll judgement yesterday as a positive?
On what basis?
On a long-term basis. I think they'll be looked after by the state via NAMA or whatever else the gov can condure up. I wouldn't be surprised if any future profits (0-3 years) in Ireland were low, but these banks have international interests which could be more positive. I think that after NAMA the banks will take a large hit via writing off bad debts in 1 big go and then they'll be well capatilised.
Thanks for the advice Brendan, I hope this thread stays within the guidlines.
Before you even consider buying shares, ask yourself these questions.
- Have you ever read the annual report of a company?
- Can you read and understand the balance sheet of a company?
- Do you understand how the market capitalisation, dividend yield and price/earnings ratios are relevent to a stock?
If the answer to any of these questions is no, you have no business whatsoever buying stocks.
In the short run (next 12 months, say) this is all about the size of the NAMA haircut. ....
Buying bank shares at this particular point of time is a gamble on the politics of the NAMA project.
Being a "professional" has no bearing on how well you can pick stocks. Professional money managers are driven by herd mentality. They get their fees regardless of how well their picks perform. If they value their jobs; they will want to be performing in and around the level of their peers. After all, if they make an incorrect decision that's contrary to the market, they'll be fired. It's simply not worth it for them to deviate from the consensus.I hear what you're saying, but given that the vast majority of professional investors are qualified in these areas were buying these shares a year-18 months ago at 10 times their present value, I'm not sure that your points (while relevant) should preclude a non-professional from investing.
Davy Stockbrokers in their website today said:Ultimately, the value of the Irish banks still hinges on a number of key variables: the NAMA haircut; the level of capital required in the 'cleansed' banks; whether there is a levy down the road to cover any possible second loss in NAMA; and both the pre-provision profit potential and impairment outlook for the 'cleansed' bank.
However, the recent publication of the draft NAMA legislation and the relative 'cheapness' of the Irish banks (on any post-NAMA estimate, be it operating profits, TNAV or more 'normal' earnings a couple of years hence) has put the Irish banks firmly back on investors' radar screens.
Being a "professional" has no bearing on how well you can pick stocks. Professional money managers are driven by herd mentality. They get their fees regardless of how well their picks perform.
The fact that people are even comtemplating buying bank shares surely SCREAMS that NAMA is a bad deal for the tax payer?
If capitalism was to prevail, the bank shareholders would already be wiped out?
Before you even consider buying shares, ask yourself these questions.
- Have you ever read the annual report of a company?
- Can you read and understand the balance sheet of a company?
- Do you understand how the market capitalisation, dividend yield and price/earnings ratios are relevent to a stock?
If the answer to any of these questions is no, you have no business whatsoever buying stocks.
I'm sure Michael O' Leary did all of those things when he purchased 30% of Aer Lingus and much good it did it him. Ditto for the pilot's.
A monkey picking shares is just as good as any expert.