OK, I'm wrong above..
It makes no sense to add probabilities as I have done... i would have to agree now with the other guy, I knew an answer of around 35% to 40% would be about right, 43% seemed too high.
Cheers
There was a good show the other day, the girl never did a deal and won 100,000.. it looked really bad at one stage.
Then again, at five boxes to go she had the three biggest left... 250K, 100K, 35K, 1K (?) and 750 pounds.. the deal came in at 31K, she refused (and was right)...
(edited to add, deal offer may have been higher, I seem to remember an offer of 51K)
Next round.. she lost the 250K, then the 35K, then the 1K I think, (not sure about order).. nailbiting!!!! She only had the 100K and the 750 pounds... my god!
Deal was 13K... she refused (again right, you never seem to get the odds to deal, always less, but you can't always afford to lose)..
So she refused, kept her box, it was opened for 100K!!! Yes! She took a huge risk, could only have been 750 pounds.