Pubs are closing and more bookies opening: why?

[Protocol]

In Sligo town, many pubs have closed over the last few years.

(TDs / Poitin Stil
Cavanagh's
Hargadon's
Garavogue/Left Bank
Shenanigans
Conway's
a few pubs at the top of High street)


In the last year, 4 new bookies have opened.

I realise that the pub trade is under pressure all over the country, and I realise that gambling expenditure has increased in Ireland over the past few years.

But these trends seem to be excarbated in Sligo.

Maybe it's excessive rents being asked by landlords?

 

[ClubMan]

Maybe there are simply better margins/profits to be had from bookies shops than from pubs?

 

[MichaelDes]

Maybe there are simply better margins/profits to be had from bookies shops than from pubs?

Less manpower and general overhead costs...and it is mathematically impossible for a bookie to lose money if he offsets the bets on his books. However, thankfully for a bookie most people bet doubles and triples which are statistically remote on winning and a dream ticket [to the bookie]. During any Saturday evening count the amount of losses against the wins.

On some of the straight bets or large doubles or triples he needs to offset [only at the end stage in triples or other accumulators], but it is like poker in Vegas, he has through probability, better odds overall on his entire book compared to the likely payouts.

Surprising there is a statistical means with certainity of high winning on various bets through sports arbitrage or sure bets. These types of process allows substantial monies to be made by exploiting the odds from the various betting exchanges or shops, sometimes up to 20% margin in a single bet within 24 hours. Exchanges sometimes limit bet sizes bets to £1000 to counteract this and quickly catch on as sure bettor's are like wild fire on the internet. Bookies hate this though as it's the equivalent of card counting in a casino - giving you 3% leverage but only in this case to a much much greater degree.

 

[mickeyg]

is Hargadon's closed?? If it is what a shame - a pub in the real sense of what a pub should be!!

 

[Protocol]

Yes, it is closed.

But it is now for lease, again. There are ads in the paper for the lease.

Probably at a huge rent per week.

 

[Sunny]

Is this really one of the great financial debates???

 

[queenlex]

I realise that the pub trade is under pressure all over the country, and I realise that gambling expenditure has increased in Ireland over the past few years.

I think this is a bit of a myth in Dublin in particular (pressure on pub trade) there are more pubs than ever in Dublin and its suburbs and there always packed at the weekend and I would say busier during the week than they used to be

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Is this really one of the great financial debates???

Protocol

This is a Letting Off Steam issue. The Great Financial Debates is for consumer finance topics not for general discussion about the state of Irish society.

Brendan

 

[Niallymac]

...and it is mathematically impossible for a bookie to loss money if he offsets the bets on his books.

I'd love to know how you work that out. It is only mathematically impossible to offset all your risk if you lay off every single bet in full......in which case you are loosing money (whatever your overhead is). A bookie will always absorb some of the risk, that is how they make their money. If you have a big liability brewing on something, you will hedge it, but often at a price way in excess of the margin on the individual bet.

It's a long game, with wins and losses, and if the bookie is doing it properly, he should be able to take a 10-12% margin on t/o in a good year. If you know of a way in which you can make it mathematically impossible for a bookie to loose money without laying off every bet in full, then feel free to either post or pm me, because you'll be the first man in history to eliminate risk from gambling.