Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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It seems that the crash is more predominant in areas are lets be honest about it off the beaten track mullingar come on who wants to live there at 500k for property?????

Sense of realism is needed in this thread not some pointed finger to some place that noone wants to live in...
 
ecstatic said:
It seems that the crash is more predominant in areas are lets be honest about it off the beaten track mullingar come on who wants to live there at 500k for property?????

Sense of realism is needed in this thread not some pointed finger to some place that noone wants to live in...
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Yeah right - last week anyone talking up the market was saying that it was only mid-high end properties in Dublin that were falling. Now it's only Mullingar or places that's off the beaten track that are falling. Next week it will only be places like Lucan or Swords. The week after that it will only be.....blah blah blah
All areas have been affected by falling asking prices.
 
thewatcher said:
In the final analysis everything must come back to wages,it is the fundamental that drives everything else.We are on a credit binge at the moment that is why wages have become detached from house prices, however a nation can only borrow so much then it hits the wall. See the USA,this is where we are going.



Is this not the road we are already on,do you think the construction industry can be sustained indefinitely ?
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The construction industry can't maintain the level of growth it has experienced in recent years. However Ireland still has a severe infrastructural deficit. Traffic is a nightmare (we need better roads, trains etc) and most of these new housing estates need schools, shopping facilities, leisure centres. There is no need for that sector to collapse. If the housing slow down is mild and prolonged rather than a crash there is no reason why those resources can't be deployed elsewhere. If house prices moderate without a crash, hopefully we can maintain the current level of immigration (and find them jobs) soaking up the current high levels of supply in the housing market. That way our economy can continue to grow, and your wages can continue to rise - hopefully faster than house prices.

There was severe irrational exuberance in the market early this year as buyers convinced themselves that there would be an SSIA related boom (causing an SSIA related boom ;-) ). In reality SSIA savings had already been priced into the market. In recent years, those that could afford to keep their SSIAs, were allowed to borrow more, and those that couldn't ploughed their savings into their deposit. The recent correction is the market readjusting itself to it's new longterm Eurozone trend (i.e. the trend since 2000). We may have overshot with our upward correction for low interest rates also.

We have permenantly lower interest rates now. You are never again going to see interest rates at 20%, the old 2.5 or 3 times your salary guideline is long outdated. We have the highest female labour participation in Europe, we have the fastest growing economy in Europe. Focusing on median industrial wages of just over 30k misses the point. The average age of a first time buyer in most EU economies is early thirties. You tend earn more as you get older. Thus the median wage of those who purchase houses is likely to be significantly higher - you can double that salary too - thanks to our high female labour participation. Also consider that a large proportion of income is unsalaried - the small business men, the contractors, the cash-in-hand black economy, the investors - these people will also earn significantly more than the median industrial wage. Then factor in low interest rates, low personal taxes and interest rate relief. What you end up with is nominally high house prices. They are also here to stay. But cheer up ;-) providing our economy stays strong you'll be able to afford the repayments. The alternative, a crash, cheap housing but no jobs and crap wages is not an alternative at all.
 
room305 said:
I think "short term pain" might be glossing things over here a little Debtwish. This will be brutal, even for those not involved in construction and related sectors. If the housing market goes into freefall then I think a deflationary recession is inevitable and almost nobody enjoys those (with the possible exception of those holding large hordes of cash and no debt).

Not a great environment for business growth or attracting investment either. Multinational companies like to invest in countries with expanding rather than contracting economies.
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Surely people are just saying what they see happening looking at all the evidence.I don't wish for a crash,i see it happening but i don't wish for one.
I think it comes down to 2 things,

if you believe the irish property market is built on sound fundamentals, then we will be ok.
if you believe the irish property market is built on rampant speculation,then we are in trouble.
 
whathome said:
Yeah right - last week anyone talking up the market was saying that it was only mid-high end properties in Dublin that were falling. Now it's only Mullingar or places that's off the beaten track that are falling. Next week it will only be places like Lucan or Swords. The week after that it will only be.....blah blah blah
All areas have been affected by falling asking prices.
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Its called denial.
 
JayDub said:
Mullingar is only 20 minutes drive to Maynooth, what woud you rather spend 500k on

Maynooth
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=140171&search=1

Mullingar
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=132642&search=1

I work from home so commuting does not factor into where I live. Have you actually been to Mullingar lately, its a great little, growing town.
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Mullingar is 36 miles from Maynooth, you would have to do an average of 108 miles per hour to get there in 20 mins.
 
Maynooth another place thats miles away from anywhere, these places are all not what id call handy for work handy for anything...

Im bearish myself but who wants to live in leixlip ? maynooth ?? mullingar ???..

Certainly i dont want to travel two hours to work every day a waste of time.
 
I believe its rampant speculation..

But then again prices in switzerland are off the wall..

And prices in netherlands are not too far behind ireland...
 
ecstatic said:
Maynooth another place thats miles away from anywhere, these places are all not what id call handy for work handy for anything...

Im bearish myself but who wants to live in leixlip ? maynooth ?? mullingar ???..

Certainly i dont want to travel two hours to work every day a waste of time.
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um all those places are well serviced by the train to connolley.

35 min for train to connolley from leixlip

These places have infrastructure - its places like Trim, Ballivor, Navan etc without either motorway or rail services that will suffer esp given that we are reaching oil peak.

One of the big factor effecting the correction in california at the moment is gas prices, places close to work & school are staying somewhat up, but anything else is slipping in value
 
whathome said:
Why? Surely for a multinational choosing where to invest, an expanding European economy is more relevant than an imploding Irish economy? They're not likely to care much about the local economy if their focus is export based.
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We still have high wages and an infrastructal deficit. Companies are unlikely to want to base themselves in a country undergoing a recession, especially if during that recessionary period, interest rates are still rising.

They would probably prefer to pick a country that is about to undergo a period of sustained growth rather than one that has just been through a boom and is looking a bust square in the face.

Much as I am loathe to admit it, the "soft landing" for housing may be the lesser of two evils, although I very much doubt it can be achieved.
 
ecstatic said:
Show me somewhere dublin on the coastel region that has been priced down ?
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Open your eyes man! I have already posted a few links of price drops in central areas. The asking price on a decent 2 bed apt last wk in Kilmainham was dropped 20K. I saw a 3 bed apt today in Inchicore that has dropped its asking price 15K. Others have been on the market for ages. Lots of people have posted decent examples of price drops in central Dublin!!!
 
phoenix_n said:
Its called denial.
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You're right, it goes something like this...

"Prices might fall in some areas but they'll never fall in my area because we have (insert as may of the following as you like)".....

a) The Luas/Bus Corridor/Airport/Motorway/Dart/Metro
b) Lots of leafy trees
c) A local multinational
d) Redbrick houses
e) Trophy houses
f) Huge demand
g) A wonderful school only down the road
h) The new shopping centre/cinema/library/college/gym
i) A public swimming pool under construction
j) No management company fees
k) Near the coast!
l) A great local TD who will never let prices fall
 
SteelBlue05 said:
Mullingar is 36 miles from Maynooth, you would have to do an average of 108 miles per hour to get there in 20 mins.
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Jaysus, I better check my speedometer and see if its in miles or kilometers ;) I was always wondering why the country people drive so slow ;)
 
ecstatic said:
Show me somewhere dublin on the coastel region that has been priced down ?
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took 2 seconds to find these:
Dun Laoghaire...

Number 2 in the following list (Airhill, Tivoli Terace)
Was €720,000


Reduced to €595,000
[broken link removed]=

Number 8 in the following list (6 Hillview Drive)
Was €675,000


Reduced to €635,000
[broken link removed]=
 
whathome said:
took 2 seconds to find these:
Dun Laoghaire...

Number 2 in the following list (Airhill, Tivoli Terace)
Was €720,000


Reduced to €595,000
[broken link removed]=

Number 8 in the following list (6 Hillview Drive)
Was €675,000


Reduced to €635,000
[broken link removed]
Click to expand...


OK in that case find me somewhere rural on the coast, in the midlands in a small town, in Dublin center that has gone down... ;)
 
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