The Great Game II - the Irish Property Empire abroad

edo

Registered User
Messages
20
Hi Folks

Just spent the previous evening with a mate of mine who is thinking (actually more accurately salivating!) over the prospects of buying a piece of the property action abroad.
Just a few observations to kick off this thread:

I'll put my cards on the table first. The one piece of bricks and mortar that I do own is in Greece , a 2 bed apartment in Athens which I bought under the spell of a young Greek lady when I lived and worked there in the late 90's! (96-99). It has worked out ok - its in a good location - practically paid for - 2 years on the loan left and the rental income pays for all , including the management fees - been lucky on tenant turnover - the same couple been there for last 5 years - good tenants. I probably could take serious capital appreciation if I sold up now , but I'll probably hang on to it - it not costing me anything - I like Athens , the big dirty overgrown smog ridden 6 1/2 million filled megalopolis that it is , one of those places that gets under your skin - and when the industry Im in here in Ireland is finally outsourced to the Far East I can always go back into the tourism and teaching english game there.

With that out of the way:

Im amazed at the amount of investing Irish People are doing right around the world . From penthouses in China to igloos in the Artic - a lot of them risking far more than myself and it would seem very very little knowledge of the countries and more particularly the cultures into which they are investing in apart from what it says in the glosssy brochures produced by the Selling Agents.

In Particular what I find telling is the widespread attitude that what has heppened in Ireland over the last decade or so is just bound to happen in nearly every other country in the world whose standard of living (or maybe more accurately cost of living !) has not reached the dizzy heights that ours has. Eastern Europe ,the Med , the Middle East , the Far East - all just waiting to have their version of the Celtic tiger and we , the Irish Landlord class (isn't it amazing how easily that can be said now , without invoking images of Davitt and Parnell famine and evictions etc etc) will be housing them all!.

It is as if the whole country has read Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and has assumed that everybody will now buy into the Anglo Saxon laisse faire liberal democracy path that apparently triumphed over all others the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. And that all these countries will be lucky enough to have same miraclous alignment of economic good luck that we had since then.

I dont know about that - thats why Im fishing around for others opinions:

a few examples:

Poland:

Everybody seems to be getting in know in anticipation of a big takeoff. Well the poles have been waiting the bones of 20 years and they are voting with their feet. A President and Prime minister far more concerned with homosexuality and the death penalty and other imaginative policies, a brain drain that is making Irish Emigration over the last 50 years look like small potatoes - the brightest and best of their young are leaving at an alarming rate - and their birth rate is falling - I don't know but it sure is starting to look like in Ireland in the 50's not the pre-tiger 80's.


Hungary - once the bright star of post communist eastern europe - nows looks like is going to take over from Slovakia as the economic basket case of eastern europe - serious structural issues that will take a long time to resolve - how long do you intend investing for and will rental yield to the natives keep you covered in the meantime?

Dubai - Yeah the clean shiny heart of Middle Eastern Business - the switzerland of the levant - or wasnt that what they used to call Beirut? - A Petro absolutist monarchy in a great neighbourhood with lots of stable mature democracies as Neighbours - Saudi, Iran , Iraq - well maybe I could be wrong but I just dont see the word stability and certainty anywhere in the Future of that region at the mo.

I could go on and on - but I have to do some work now - just kicking around a few thoughts - would welcome any rebuttals and thoughts from others on the issue
 
I happen to work with a lot of Polish guys and property comes up in conversation regularly. They are amazed by the amount of Irish people asking them about buying in Poland. Many Irish seem under the impression that Poland will become the new Ireland and property will take off in the same way. Thing is, property is so over-priced in Poland now it is almost impossible to see it going much further. Most Polish people who live and work in Warsaw or Krakow cannot afford to buy there. So who or what is going to fuel even further appreciation?

Demographics are poor as well. One of the guys here said that last year only one child was born in his village. Five or six years ago that figure would have been thirty. None of them seem particularly optimistic about Poland's economic future.

As for Dubai? Apart from quite a few hapless investors overlooking the lack of a double-taxation agreement and therefore thinking they won't have to pay any tax on capital appreciation - the Dubai stock market is trading at below 2004 levels and seems very weak. Doesn't sound like a healthy economy to me.

Now don't even get me started on all those people buying in Turkey ...
 
Here's some more great stats from the Polish Central Statistics Office.

Population is projected to fall from 38 million in 2005 to 35.6 in 2030. The number of over 65s will go from 5 million in 2005 to 8.5 in 2030.

[broken link removed]

Unemployment is currently (June 2006) 16%.

[broken link removed]
 
yeah looked at the polish market, wroclaw to be exact. i do think there is money to be made to be honest in property there if you choose correctly. you can get for example a 3 bed flat for around 135K in the centre square there.(the best area) [broken link removed] last one in list.

With polish soon to be able to work in Germany and thus getting better wages property prices will go up.
 
With polish soon to be able to work in Germany and thus getting better wages property prices will go up.

Markets are forward discounting mechanisms. I would say the price of Polish property now equates to what Polish people will be willing to pay once they are on better wages. It may go up some from here but not much, I would say the risk/return ratio is quite high with fairly limited upside.
 
Markets are forward discounting mechanisms. I would say the price of Polish property now equates to what Polish people will be willing to pay once they are on better wages. It may go up some from here but not much, I would say the risk/return ratio is quite high with fairly limited upside.


so apply that logic to ireland.

the market is not so simple as that.
elastaticity.
the in/efficiency of entry/barrier taxations visavie stamp duty.

markets are a crude reflection of information assymetry, vested interests, cost inefficiencies and so on. the more external interference the worse the market becomes at predicting future,

eg: propery markets way off....capital markets closet to the ball...
 
http://www.google.com/trends?q=spanish+property

Its hotspot hop scotch, from Spain (see above) to Hungary to Florida to Bulgaria to Turkey to Dubai now Poland, Latvia. Once the hot spot is no longer the subject of heardonomics it becomes a place where bewildered 'investors' wonder at why they still cant sell their 'investment' after it's being on the market for a couple of years. It not as if this type of speculative mania hasn't happened countless times before, but I suppose its a first for the Irish.

The words learning, curve and steep spring to mind.
 
This is typical coverage of the housing crash in the US.

USA Today 21 September 2006

The vanishing act of speculators is accelerating the decline in home sales this year. That's making life hard for home sellers but giving buyers a bonanza of choices. It's also a stark reminder of the cyclical nature of real estate.
Though it's too early to say how far the market will fall, short-term real estate investors are learning how hard it is to make money — any money — once For Sale signs begin hanging in yards for months. Sellers cut prices, and builders hand out swimming pools to entice hesitant buyers.
Take Jeffrey Epstein, an insurance broker in Florida. When Epstein put deposits down on a condo and a town house under construction in Miami in 2004, he never actually planned to live in them — or even buy them outright.
"My strategy was just to put down a deposit and try to flip the contracts when they built the properties, which I was able to do on a couple others," says Epstein, 49. "But then I ran into a couple of problems."
Namely, a local real estate market with a 17-month supply of condos for sale and prices 11% below last year's median. In June and July, Epstein had to come up with the money to close on the condo and the town house. Now, to get them off his hands, he's offering to pay the buyers' closing costs and homeowner's association fees for a year.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-09-20-flipping-usat_x.htm
 
Interesting mate u bought in Greece no economic prospects of sort not much research there.

"Demographics are poor as well." - What planet are you on mate its the youngest labour force in europe. Go check out country to the city migration and see what the migration really is.

Go ask IBM DELL and countless other corporates with R&D centres in Poland what they make of the place. Why did unemployment drop from 20% to 15.7% in two years (maybe they all migrated ! )

Why is it that every top computer programming competiition in the world out of the top 10 places Warsaw university scores generally 3 people in the top 10 ???

Go look at your macroeconomic statistics Poland is growing around 5%-6% with mortgage growth of 60%. Latvia growing at 10% with 7% inflation. Yields do exist in these places i know i scored close to 10% 2 years ago in Warsaw. 100% in two years has been made out there by anyone in that long. Was 40% more if you were in 3 years ago.

Now look around: Spain a bigger property boom as ireland and a similiar basket case back in the 70's.

Billions is been pumped in at the moment go do a reading on the currencies the future is very bright for Poland.

Hungarys core problem is that the currency is completly overvalued the dogs on the street could tell you that until they intervene there going nowhere.

I dont see Czech Republic mentioned and from what i remember 1997 17 thousand would have got u an apartment that would sell for minimum 350K now.

People will always make mistakes in life but those who do there research will make money anywhere full stop.

By the way u can get 70 metre flat in wroclaw for around 80K.
 
Interesting mate u bought in Greece no economic prospects of sort not much research there.

"Demographics are poor as well." - What planet are you on mate its the youngest labour force in europe. Go check out country to the city migration and see what the migration really is.

Go ask IBM DELL and countless other corporates with R&D centres in Poland what they make of the place. Why did unemployment drop from 20% to 15.7% in two years (maybe they all migrated ! )

Why is it that every top computer programming competiition in the world out of the top 10 places Warsaw university scores generally 3 people in the top 10 ???

Go look at your macroeconomic statistics Poland is growing around 5%-6% with mortgage growth of 60%. Latvia growing at 10% with 7% inflation. Yields do exist in these places i know i scored close to 10% 2 years ago in Warsaw. 100% in two years has been made out there by anyone in that long. Was 40% more if you were in 3 years ago.

Now look around: Spain a bigger property boom as ireland and a similiar basket case back in the 70's.

Billions is been pumped in at the moment go do a reading on the currencies the future is very bright for Poland.

Hungarys core problem is that the currency is completly overvalued the dogs on the street could tell you that until they intervene there going nowhere.

I dont see Czech Republic mentioned and from what i remember 1997 17 thousand would have got u an apartment that would sell for minimum 350K now.

People will always make mistakes in life but those who do there research will make money anywhere full stop.

By the way u can get 70 metre flat in wroclaw for around 80K.

Agree. Yep on the 80K flat but i am/was looking at the market square. very familiar as currently am over here!!!
 
Oh dear ecstatic, am I to take it that you are heavily invested, indeed leveraged, into a global property boom?

I'm was only relaying what I've been told by the Polish workers in my office. Funnily enough, they are the young, highly educated types who you seem to think will fuel property prices to even more stratospheric heights in Poland in years to come.

Strange, that they seem so intent on finding work here and in the U.S. instead of Poland.

Still, I'm sure if capital appreciation continues to run at 20% for another few years, they'll all start running back to avail of the smaller wages and more competitive jobs market.
 
"Demographics are poor as well." - What planet are you on mate its the youngest labour force in europe. Go check out country to the city migration and see what the migration really is.

I was going to post that link to the Polish CSO figures as I assumed I posted it a different thread after reading your post, but no there it is just above yours. Do people only read what they want to hear these days?
 
I was going to post that link to the Polish CSO figures as I assumed I posted it a different thread after reading your post, but no there it is just above yours. Do people only read what they want to hear these days?

Yeah i am reminded of some quote. You can bring a horse to a fountain but you can't make it drink it.
 
"Oh dear ecstatic, am I to take it that you are heavily invested, indeed leveraged, into a global property boom?"

I think everyone on the planet is!

Polish people are quite pessimistic not so unlike the Irish people who also were harping on about a property crash circa 1990 and we all know who laughed last there :)

Say around 2 million people have left so far leaves 40 million people quite a large country dont u think ?

Was it not on BBC recently that thousands of these people were homeless in London ? How long will that last ?

Polish people love owning property have a chat with them.

When will they ever buy in Ireland / London ?

Its still growing faster than ireland and its not driven by consumer growth its driven significantly by investment growth. All cycles come and go its the timing that counts.

We all know how far consumer growth gets you reference the US dollar slide of late even on the back of increased interest rates!

Differing types of growth.

The european experiment is proven and works it is attempted to be repeated in south america (mercusor (not very successful)) and in asia (cannot remember the name off hand! ).

People dont copy things unless they work !
 
I think everyone on the planet is!

Actually no they're not. Quite a few billion have enough trouble finding sufficient food to feed themselves and their families never mind looking for the next quick rich scheme. As for the rest of your comment, I don't get what point you're trying to make but it could be because text talk annoys me and I don't have much time for people who type u instead of you.

Whether Poland represents the next property boom or not, the issue that is outstanding is the vast quantity of debt that many Irish people have amassed in "buying" their property out foreign. Debt brings problems, particularly when the cost of that debt is rising.
 
Don't you guys remember what happened in Ireland when we joined the EEC. Why house prices rocketed and unemployment and emigration nosedived. Sorry scratch that, unemployment rocketed as did emigration and house prices fell in real terms for a decade and a half. But hey I like the first version better so I'm sticking with it.
 
"I don't get what point you're trying to make but it could be because text talk " -- reference the text talk please.

The brackets would signify basic algebra that one would learn in school.

On an aside note equities in which the EBRD and European Bank invested last year in Poland returned 60%.

This is contra to a lot of other booms that occur around the planet.
 
Duplex:

House prices did rocket in the 80's mate when ireland joined EU.

My father bought a house for 12 K / 15K in 1980 and sold it for 112k - 120K in 1990. Thats quite an increase !

This is seven years after joining the EU when he bough the house.
 
"I don't get what point you're trying to make but it could be because text talk " -- reference the text talk please.

Your tendency to replace "you" with "u", as outlined above.

Either way you haven't addressed the point I've made. The issue here is not where people are buying property - because that does not really matter. The issue is how much debt they have taken on to fund those purchases at a time when that debt is becoming more expensive.
 
Back
Top