The brains are most definitely not on your side. Have fun purchasing a 'bargain' investment property on the first dead cat bounce and crying about it for the next decade or so.
While his attitude might leave a certain amount to be desired, you can't be certain that he will buy in the first dead cat bounce, can you?
As a general note, one of the most interesting things about this debate, from my point of view is that it clearly identifies just how greedy and money-driven people in this country appear to have become.
People want to get wealthy from their house by the simple fact of just buying them. There was a time they just wanted to live in them.
The net result is that property has shot up in value, and that rise is dependent on 1) a sufficient number of people buying at the prices and 2) a sufficient amount of money to buy at those prices. Currently, a massive whack of that money is borrowed. How sane is that? There are horrible shades of pyramid scheme around the whole thing at the moment.
I've been watching property debates on this site for a long time now, and contributing to them, and the problem I have is this. There is no real logic to property prices in Ireland, no fundamental reason why that wealth is being generated. But they keep on rising, so that voices of reason get drowned out with "you were wrong for five years, so why should you be right now?" On another thread on the subject, there was a very heavy idea that "something will change to keep property prices up".
The only point in the favour of those arguing that it will continue to rise, as far as I can see, is that it hasn't stopped rising yet.
A rising property market, to some extent, is a good sign in an economy. But there comes a point when it becomes dangerous. I think we're at that stage because other economic indicators which speak of trouble to come are not so much in our favour. Most of our job creation is in the non-import sector (as in it's not earning money for the country) and we have massive rising consumer debt. Growth based purely on internal factors and debt isn't real growth, and I think it's interesting that our growth is being tracked with slightly higher inflation than average in the rest of the eurozone. Our money isn't buying all that much, is it? And that's as much true for a cup of coffee as it is for a house or an apartment.
Personally I'm not in this for a killing. I am in it for a home. But I see that the home I want to buy is priced out of my range by people who just want to make a killing (often - you'll find a lot of FTBs in that position) and to be honest, as I see how proud of themselves that they got it right they are with their capital appreciation - and it's not a profit until it's banked (but no one seems to understand that), I wonder why I should feel sorry for them on the way down if they are going be somewhat resentful of those who buy in falling prices.
I don't want to time the bottom of the market - I can't, for one thing. But I don't want to take a hammering from the extremists on either sides for a) exploiting the property crash and causing someone to take a heavy loss or b) or buying before the market hit rock bottom. It's very tribalistic.
Economically, our property market has to correct, and the shorter it takes for that to happen, probably the better in the long term. I'm not interested in estate agents' livelihoods, but a long drawn out property crash will probably have a worse effect on the rest of the economy than a sharp shock.
The other thing which interests me is that by and large, the debate is getting very personal, to the extent that it is becoming less and less rational on here. After yesterday I'm slightly surprised the thread didn't get locked.
What's public sentiment in housing? I don't know any more. Most people I know who are in the market to buy are not buying at the moment. Not because it's too expensive per se, but because it represents, in the short term, very bad value for money.
A recurring theme here is "okay so it rose 40%. But it can't possibly fall 40%, really, when you think about it". But there was no real basis for the rise other than demand, and demand is elastic. The only people who are actually homeless won't be in the position to buy anyway. Everyone else can actually rent which is currently a better option for many people, vis a vis location, for example.
The property market was probably over valued 4 years ago. But it kept on rising and whether they like it or not, it is the people who continued to buy who contributed to that continuing rise. Sure they got the money from the banks....but they didn't have to buy either. A lot of people didn't. They took slack for it. I find it interesting that those that did buy, or do own homes are expecting their counterparts to be magnanimous should the tables turn. It's very much the "I was smug on the rising market, but you can't be smug on the falling market". Double standards which are typical of life in Ireland, I must say.
) you might knock of 10 or 20% if the market slows but any more, I doubt it...