800k limit likely to rise on pension funds?

moneymakeover

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My pension fund target is 800k because I can take 25% tax free up to 200k limit.

I'm thinking however is that likely to increase?

In which case I should be targeting some higher number.
 
It depends on your time horizon.

Within five years I would think no. Within 30 years I would think almost certainly yes.
With the rise of Sinn Fein/IRA and a general drift to the left, plus wokeism, I think it’s naive in the extreme to think “almost certainly yes” in the context of things like the €200k/€800k/€2m “limits”.
 
Within five years I would think no. Within 30 years I would think almost certainly yes.
I wouldn’t be so sure.

Prior to 2011 there was no cap on the 25% TFLS. And the SFT was €5m when originally introduced.

Given the projected changes to our old age dependency ratio over the coming decades, I can’t see how the State could afford to make our pension regime any more generous, even in nominal terms.

If anything, I wouldn’t be surprised to see further reductions to the TFLS and SFT caps.
 
Given the projected changes to our old age dependency ratio over the coming decades, I can’t see how the State could afford to make our pension regime any more generous, even in nominal terms.
The thresholds for CAT have been changed up and down over the years due to fiscal necessity then political pressure as asset prices rose.

2% inflation means a €2m SFT becomes a €1m SFT in real terms over 35 years, or retirement age for a 30YO today.

Add to that the fact that DC pension savings are just much better today than a generation ago due to more contributions and the good equity run of the last decade.

In a few decades there may be a few thousand retirees hit every year by a €2m SFT where it's more likely a few hundred every year today. This is a large and growing group who will exert political pressure.

My own view is that if you wait a few decades it is likely to be higher at least in nominal terms than today.
 
In a few decades there may be a few thousand retirees hit every year by a €2m SFT where it's more likely a few hundred every year today. This is a large and growing group who will exert political pressure.

I don't know. Even if it was €1 million today, I think that the political pressure applied by those who want it raised would be far exceeded by the opposing pressure from those who would scream that such a move is "pandering to the needs of the wealthy fat-cats etc." A million euro still looks big when it appears in a tabloid newspaper.
 
The thresholds for CAT have been changed up and down over the years due to fiscal necessity then political pressure as asset prices rose.
Make that "begrudgery".

Ironically, a higher CAT rate tends to depress the yield from CAT as it discourages the making of lifetime gifts.
 
Even if it was €1 million today, I think that the political pressure applied by those who want it raised would be far exceeded by the opposing pressure from those who would scream that such a move is "pandering to the needs of the wealthy fat-cats etc."
Agreed.

It's also worth noting that Sinn Fein have proposed reducing the SFT to €1.2m, to bring us in line with the lifetime allowance up North.
 
Agreed.

It's also worth noting that Sinn Fein have proposed reducing the SFT to €1.2m, to bring us in line with the lifetime allowance up North.
Yes, but with no reference to things like ISAs which form part of retirement planning in the UK.

That’s just Sinn Fein/IRA appealing to their base (i.e. uneducated people with no money).
 
Make that "begrudgery".
Tax revenues fell 30% 2008 to 2010 which everyone forgets. Every tree had to be shaken to keep the lights on.
Ironically, a higher CAT rate tends to depress the yield from CAT as it discourages the making of lifetime gifts.
Over the long run it gets caught in inheritance though. There is an extreme point where a very high CAT rate discourages wealth accumulation but over a lifetime (and a little after!) it's a very hard tax to avoid. I have little doubt that in the long run higher CAT rates do raise more revenue
 
Tax revenues fell 30% 2008 to 2010 which everyone forgets. Every tree had to be shaken to keep the lights on.
Discouraging CAT-liable gifts was a funny way to go about assisting that effort.
Over the long run it gets caught in inheritance though. There is an extreme point where a very high CAT rate discourages wealth accumulation but over a lifetime (and a little after!) it's a very hard tax to avoid. I have little doubt that in the long run higher CAT rates do raise more revenue
Not really. We're currently inching back to the (not very) old Irish tradition that property only changes hands when its owner is on their deathbed, and that state of affairs, with effects as varied as crumbling, moribund villages, city centre dereliction and a housing crisis, is doing little good for anyone, least of all the exchequer.
 
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