I only started studying the stock market at the start of this year. So would still most definitely consider myself a rookie. I invested a large lump sum at the start of August and lost just over 10% within three weeks and about 12% when I sold last week. (Mid sept 2015).
After a six year bull run I believed when I started investing in early August that the equities market had a year or two to go before it peaked and this may still be true. My goal was a 15 year long term investment.
It is said that the long-term investor should not try to time the market and sure, had I left my funds alone for 15 years I probably would have beaten deposit rates by a descent margin. But it just doesn't make sense to me to continue investing at the top or close to the top of a 6 year bull run, especially when there are so many negative indicators, both politically and economically. Stocks are massively overpriced and there currently seems to be tremendous economic instability. Statistical history suggests that this bull market may end fairly soon, so it seems logical to wait for better value.
I would hope within a year or two my original chosen funds would have dropped in value to a point below or significantly below what they are at now. (But who knows).
As for the timing of my exit, I did consider hanging in for a bit longer to at least try to recover my losses and at best pull out closer to the peak of the current bull run. (Greed?)
However after several restless nights concerned over when exactly that peak will be, I started to think to myself what would I do if the market suddenly dropped 5 or 10% in one day, well probably the same as most investors and consider the drop to be a temporary blip and wait for the rally the following day, potentially suffering an even greater loss if it's a genuine crash. After all the volatility in the markets in the last few weeks has frequently seen 2 to 3% falls and rises in the main indices in a single day. However I suspect a true crash would likely catch many including myself by surprise.
As Rory Gillen says in his book 3 steps to investment success (A great book I have to say), "Avoid letting volatility interrupt your savings or investment plan. I personally psychologically couldn't handle this volatility even though I had a 15 year long term investment plan. I suspect I would have handled it much better at the end of a 6 year bear run as opposed to the end of a 6 year bull run.
I am aware that I have possibly made a stupid rookie mistake and converted what may have been a temporary loss into a permanent loss. However perhaps I have saved a small fortune. Only time will tell. But either way I would prefer to bail out a year or two early then a day too late.
After a six year bull run I believed when I started investing in early August that the equities market had a year or two to go before it peaked and this may still be true. My goal was a 15 year long term investment.
It is said that the long-term investor should not try to time the market and sure, had I left my funds alone for 15 years I probably would have beaten deposit rates by a descent margin. But it just doesn't make sense to me to continue investing at the top or close to the top of a 6 year bull run, especially when there are so many negative indicators, both politically and economically. Stocks are massively overpriced and there currently seems to be tremendous economic instability. Statistical history suggests that this bull market may end fairly soon, so it seems logical to wait for better value.
I would hope within a year or two my original chosen funds would have dropped in value to a point below or significantly below what they are at now. (But who knows).
As for the timing of my exit, I did consider hanging in for a bit longer to at least try to recover my losses and at best pull out closer to the peak of the current bull run. (Greed?)
However after several restless nights concerned over when exactly that peak will be, I started to think to myself what would I do if the market suddenly dropped 5 or 10% in one day, well probably the same as most investors and consider the drop to be a temporary blip and wait for the rally the following day, potentially suffering an even greater loss if it's a genuine crash. After all the volatility in the markets in the last few weeks has frequently seen 2 to 3% falls and rises in the main indices in a single day. However I suspect a true crash would likely catch many including myself by surprise.
As Rory Gillen says in his book 3 steps to investment success (A great book I have to say), "Avoid letting volatility interrupt your savings or investment plan. I personally psychologically couldn't handle this volatility even though I had a 15 year long term investment plan. I suspect I would have handled it much better at the end of a 6 year bear run as opposed to the end of a 6 year bull run.
I am aware that I have possibly made a stupid rookie mistake and converted what may have been a temporary loss into a permanent loss. However perhaps I have saved a small fortune. Only time will tell. But either way I would prefer to bail out a year or two early then a day too late.
Last edited: