One of my kids is studying in college and was telling me they are having a hrd time getting to grips with this theory of "falsification" mainly in the form of Doppler and his white swan / black swan theory.
I've tried reading up on it but am just as confused eg.
"The Infamous Philosophical Swans
Knowledge is not advanced by the negation of falsely certain propositions. Take for example, the now famous philosophical example of the false assertion of certainty that "all swans are white". This descriptive proposition cannot of itself be an advancement of knowledge. Whereas the description that some are black is a contribution to knowledge since it distinguishes black swans from white and other possibilities such as pink or green. The finding of black swans is of value in itself. (Indeed science distinguishes itself from the unproductive ruminations of modern philosophers on classical texts by constantly producing novel and increasingly elaborate descriptions of the world and new explanatory theories.) In addition the finding of black swans says nothing about the previous existence of extinct pink, flamingo-like swans or the future evolution of finch-like green swans. The value of the description of black swans as a falsification of the unreasonably certain hypothesis that 'all swans are presently white' is almost, if not totally, nil.
Consider also the possibility that all black swans might have recently died. The constancy of falsely certain beliefs can therefore be another reason for their rejection. Certainty of either verification or falsification of hypotheses in the absence of complete and definitive evidence should be rejected. Even then, what appears to be 'definitive' evidence should always be regarded as provisional.
By contrast the formulation of non-constant less than certain propositions concerning non-constant complex systems such as living things can have value. Some swans might presently be a colour other than white, or might have been so in the past or might be in the future under different conditions. The verification of that hypothesis comes by finding swans of a different colour. "
It might be a long shot but if someone out there could throw some light on this for me that would be much appreciated as I am trying to understand what it means in laymans language.
Roy
I've tried reading up on it but am just as confused eg.
"The Infamous Philosophical Swans
Knowledge is not advanced by the negation of falsely certain propositions. Take for example, the now famous philosophical example of the false assertion of certainty that "all swans are white". This descriptive proposition cannot of itself be an advancement of knowledge. Whereas the description that some are black is a contribution to knowledge since it distinguishes black swans from white and other possibilities such as pink or green. The finding of black swans is of value in itself. (Indeed science distinguishes itself from the unproductive ruminations of modern philosophers on classical texts by constantly producing novel and increasingly elaborate descriptions of the world and new explanatory theories.) In addition the finding of black swans says nothing about the previous existence of extinct pink, flamingo-like swans or the future evolution of finch-like green swans. The value of the description of black swans as a falsification of the unreasonably certain hypothesis that 'all swans are presently white' is almost, if not totally, nil.
Consider also the possibility that all black swans might have recently died. The constancy of falsely certain beliefs can therefore be another reason for their rejection. Certainty of either verification or falsification of hypotheses in the absence of complete and definitive evidence should be rejected. Even then, what appears to be 'definitive' evidence should always be regarded as provisional.
By contrast the formulation of non-constant less than certain propositions concerning non-constant complex systems such as living things can have value. Some swans might presently be a colour other than white, or might have been so in the past or might be in the future under different conditions. The verification of that hypothesis comes by finding swans of a different colour. "
It might be a long shot but if someone out there could throw some light on this for me that would be much appreciated as I am trying to understand what it means in laymans language.
Roy