Fine Gael Leader change

Shawady said:
Most likely outcome in next election is FG biggest party, Labour next and FF third.
It would be interesting if Labour had enough seats to form coalition with FF with Labour as main party i.e they have a choice to go in with FG as smaller party or go in with FF and have a Labour Taoiseach for first time ever.

It might sound like political suicide but if Enda Kenny is that unpopular and a Lab/ FF could still leave Brian Lenihan as MOF it might be a runner.
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Labour won't get the votes to be the biggest second party. Very easy to vote for labour in a poll. Different story when it comes to putting that vote into a ballot box.
 
People keep saying this Sunny, but it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.
Their % of the vote may not directly translate into seats but they should easily do better than the 33 seats they got in 1992 in the Spring Tide.
 
Shawady said:
People keep saying this Sunny, but it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.
Their % of the vote may not directly translate into seats but they should easily do better than the 33 seats they got in 1992 in the Spring Tide.
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You could be right but I am sceptical. I am not sure how strong Labour will be once the FF and FG election machines start picking apart their policies which are weak in a number of areas (some good ones though). Even today listening to Joan Burton, she is heavy on soundbites, low on detail.
 
Sunny said:
Labour won't get the votes to be the biggest second party. Very easy to vote for labour in a poll. Different story when it comes to putting that vote into a ballot box.
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They said the same thing in the UK before Blair came to power.
 
Complainer said:
They said the same thing in the UK before Blair came to power.
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True but Labour in Britain always had a very strong traditional base. Labour here doesn't have that. We are possibly seeing a shift in party politics here but I am sceptical that poll results will transfer into actual votes. FF will do better than the polls suggest despite what people think.

To be honest, personally I have no idea who I would vote for if an election was called tomorrow.
 
Shawady said:
it is obvious there are a large number of voters that do not want to vote for FF or FG. They have to vote for someone.
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Actually they don't. If people are disillusioned with the main parties and cannot find an alternative to vote for, they may stay at home, hence the party that has the infrastructure to get their vote out, may do better then the polls currently indicate
 
Mpsox said:
Actually they don't. If people are disillusioned with the main parties and cannot find an alternative to vote for, they may stay at home, hence the party that has the infrastructure to get their vote out, may do better then the polls currently indicate
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Or vote for independents which is a real worry.
 
Eamonn Gilmore is a lunatic Marxist who will drive all of the money out of Ireland. His policies are not that much different from Sinn Fein. The public sector will dance for joy when he gets in. He won't cross any unions. He'll want to tax the rich to punish them. However, he'll only be taxing entrepreneurs and people who create employment in this country. He'll create a run on the banks. I can't see the bondholders being too happy with him either. Hope and pray that FG get a majority....
 
MeathCommute said:
Eamonn Gilmore is a lunatic Marxist who will drive all of the money out of Ireland. His policies are not that much different from Sinn Fein. The public sector will dance for joy when he gets in. He won't cross any unions. He'll want to tax the rich to punish them. However, he'll only be taxing entrepreneurs and people who create employment in this country. He'll create a run on the banks. I can't see the bondholders being too happy with him either. Hope and pray that FG get a majority....
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I wouldn't worry, you'll find that Gilmore or Kenny won't really have options. When they get in the first thing you'll hear is that there is no pot of gold and they'll make the same cuts as FF would have
 
Scary thing is that adding up the various combinations Paddy thinks there is a 15% chance of the IRA being in power. Maybe that goes some way to explaining bond yields.
 
Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!
 
Sunny said:
Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!
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Maybe a bit too clever. Clearly Gilmore does not want a GE just now - that would leave FG in pole position. He hopes that by waiting FF will make a small recovery at FG's expense and that his rise will continue. That would put him as firm king maker and almost certainly king.

He is making one huge assumption though. If I was Enda I would start making noises that a coalition between the two business friendly parties (FG/FF) should not be ruled out in this our hour of emergency. After all FF as third party is unprecedented. The peculiar FG/Lab coalition was a marriage of convenience to give some possibility of ousting the dominant party. The paradigm has changed, changed utterly.

That would sure take the wind out of the commies' sails.
 
The upcoming 3 by-elections will have a huge impact. Government has zero chance of winning the court challenge due within the next few days, so unless there is a deal done involving cross party consensus on a date, these by-elections will take place within the next month or so. With jittery back benchers and independents looking at the door, a general election could be closer than we all think.

If FG want to be the commanding party in government, then they need to dump Enda now. They also need to run as a party seeking to rule alone - they need to ditch this coalition with Labour stuff. May need to go into coalition, but if I were them, I wouldnt be saying it outright as Labour are not necessarily attractive to all floating voters.

Without Enda, FG could conceivably come close to putting together a Government with the support of independents and Greens and at the very least they would be the dominant partners in a coalition with Labour.

With Enda, the best they can hope for is being roughly equal partners with Labour and there is the realistic possibility that they will be back in opposition to a Labour/FF coalition.
 
Sunny said:
Not labours biggest fan but brilliant move by Gilmore over the pairings. Made kenny look like a twat! Afraid that could be the end of enda!
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I aggree. Whatever people think of Labour they have been much more credible and smarter than FG. Even in the Garglegate episode, Simon Coveny was forced to back down and just looked silly. Labour meanwhile lashed the government for their record over the last 10 years and didn't look petty like FG.
 
csirl said:
With Enda, the best they can hope for is being roughly equal partners with Labour and there is the realistic possibility that they will be back in opposition to a Labour/FF coalition.
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This is a long shot but still probable. If Labour had more seats than FF it would be tempting to be the senior party in government. They could justify it on the basis that Enda Kenny is not seen as a credible leader by the majority of people. Brian Lenihan could be kept on as MOF, which again might go down well as a lot of people think he is one of our more credible politicians.

I agree with previous posters that the cuts in fortcoming budgets will happen regardless of who is in government as that is what the EU expect of us.
 
taking into account tomorrows poll ... with Enda as leader theres a chance FG will not form part of the next govt. Why not remove that chance and change the leader​
 
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