Zero chance. The Euro is a currency, not an economy. Abandoning it will not solve anyones economic problems. In fact it would make them worse as the replacement currencies would be smaller and less stable than the Euro. You'd also have the added costs of currency exchange and exchange rate risks. A lot of the hysteria is being whipped up by the UK press who are still reeling at the fact that their currency has collapsed by a third in value during this crisis. Euro is still well ahead of both Sterling and Dollar since the crisis started, so it has been the strongest of the three to date. Do you hear people calling for the abandonment of the Dollar and Sterling*? - no.
*P.S. there are actually a small number of people who are calling for Sterling to be abandoned and UK to enter the Euro.
Csirl, you can't have a currency without political, social and proper economic integration. The only way for the Euro to survive the long term, i.e. the next 15 years or so is for a federalist state to be created.
Some in Germany, notably their Government may want this but their electorate are starting to see the downsides of Euro membership.
The Germans (who run the only sound economy in Europe) will not tolerate being in a club of non-poducers and consumer bingers forever.
The dollar and pound are representative of one country a piece, not a collection of 16 nations all in different stages of their economic, political and social cycles. Each of the 16 nations requires different interest rates to be set in order to maintain their economies on firm foundations.
For example, during Ireland's rampant boom interest rates should have been raised to 10-15% or so to slow the excesses in the system. The Euro prevented this and allowed a credit binge of negative 'real' rates to be set. This was hugely damaging for the economy of Ireland.
You raise the currency exchange and exchange rate risk argument a lot but in the grand scheme of things this is irrelevant. Any positives of having one exchange rate are outweighed by the negatives of not being able to control one's rates.
In terms of the UK entering the Euro, a few woolly socialists may think this is a good idea but any economist of sense knows it would be a crazy idea. The electorate will also never let it happen. Likewise if sterling faces a serious crises of confidence int he future the BoE can ramp rates up hard to protect the downside (although this doesn't always work ideally it is at least an option).
Likewise many believe the recent downturn in Sterling is having a good effect in increasing manufacturing orders from abroad and in creating inflation in the system to reduce the debt burden over the longer term. We will see how successfull this is, I believe a strong currency is good over the longer term but at least the UK has the option of control.
The Euro is no different from the dollar or sterling. They will each gyrate against one another the next decade but all will collapse in value over the longer term against the real precious metal currencies and basic staples due to terrible fundamentals.
When one flawed currency rises against another flawed currency, do not confuse this as a sign of strength! One independent variable rising against another independent variable shows no context of real strength against the real world.
The fundamentals are what support a currency over the longer term. Fundamentals of running a trade surplus, low debt, budget surplus, high savings rate, etc. The current fundamentals for Europe, UK and US are terrible.
Measure the Euro against a real currency like gold or silver and a different story is told. Likewise compare the Euro to 'real economy' currencies like the Taiwanese dollar, Singapore dollar, Aussie Dollar or Candadian and it tells a different story of the Euro's so called strength.
The fundamentals behind the Western economies are getting worse not better. Expect the purchasing power of the Euro, pound and dollar to all fall.
If the Euro is to survive long term it needs political and social integration in the form of a federalist state. There is no other option. This half hearted measure at economic integration with each state doing their own thing is doomed to fail.
Will the citizens of all 16 nations buy into the federalist state? I doubt it. Hence the reason why the Euro will dissapear at some point or strong nations like Germany will pull out due to their citizens having enough.
The fundamentals always win out in the end. It is the case in any investment or economy. Fundamentals can be thrown out of whack for a very long time but eventually they always win.
On this basis 'Western' currencies will all fall v Gold, silver and other 'real' currencies over the longer term. Likewise the flawed Euro concept will fail at some point many years from now without a federalist state controlling the 'fundamentals' of the whole block.
When you sit back and look at it, without total political, social and economic integration how on earth can a currency represent 16 differing countries? it simply can't over the longer term.