Why has the Lotto jackpot not been won ?

[twofor1]

The Lotto jackpot has been capped at €19 million since October and has not been won since June.

In the past 8 draws alone, 390 people have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls, so since June probably around 780 would have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls.

Given that there are only 47 numbers in the draw, statistically (I think) 16 people out of that 780 should have picked the 6th number, but no one has.

Just curious and trying to get my head around it, is this a remarkable coincidence or am I missing something ?

 

[NoRegretsCoyote]

I don't follow this but one explanation is that the patterns of lotto picks are not at all random. People tend to space them out across the distribution even though 1,2,3,4,5,6 is as likely as any other. People have their "own" numbers as well.

The National Lottery has excellent data on this which of course they don't make public.

So it could have been that the "winning" combinations have been falling on patterns that aren't commonly picked.

Most people are not very numerate. In the 90s I saw a newspaper article showing how many times each number had come out. The implication was that you were better off picking numbers that had come out less frequently in the past as they were more likely to come out in future, which is of course nonsense.

 

[Leper]

It's all permutations and combinations and of course some luck and St-Patrick's chances if he lived to this day and if he did two lines in the lotto daily most likely he still would not have wont the Lotto jackpot. Most of us do the Lotto, but only the braindead will form an opinion that it is not some additional form of tax.

 

[MrEarl]

The odds are really bad, it's that simple!

I think they've been allowed much too free a hand, with regards to what the odds are of the big prize being won, at what point its capped, when it isn't won after a certain point, then split into multiple prize draws with the same tickets given two chances to win etc.

I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?

 

[PGF2016]

I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?

I've recently seen online ads showing the good causes they support.

 

[michaelm]

Given that there are only 47 numbers in the draw, statistically (I think) 16 people out of that 780 should have picked the 6th number, but no one has.

Just curious and trying to get my head around it, is this a remarkable coincidence or am I missing something ?

Your back-of -the-envelope calculation could only work if the 780 people had the same 5 numbers. But they will have different sets of 5 numbers. They didn't match 5 out of the first 6 like you suggest just 5 out of all 6.

There are 6 combinations of 5 numbers (in a set of 6). My very rough calculation (open to correction) would be 780/6/42 = 3. So you might have expected 3 of those 780 to win, but not be surprised that they didn't. Chances of getting 5 numbers is about 1 in 1.5m, chances of all 6 is closer to 1 in 11m.

 

[twofor1]

Your back-of -the-envelope calculation could only work if the 780 people had the same 5 numbers. But they will have different sets of 5 numbers.

Yes, I see that now thanks.

 

[RetirementPlan]

I also don't recall seeing any coverage on the "good causes" that have benefited from Lotto funds, in recent years - do they still have to do that?

This story has gotten fairly heavy coverage on TV in recent weeks;

https://twitter.com/NationalLottery/status/1412111367268704259

 

[Purple]

The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.

 

[gianni]

I like to think I'm superior as I rarely do it and, when I do, I play the Daily Million game. It has better odds and it costs €1.

But the joke is on me...the odds are still ridiculously high. Yet I still throw my money away, go figure.

 

[odyssey06]

SO what I'm hearing is now is a good time to play with some random numbers?
Just as unlikely to win but if you do win you win bigly...

 

[time to plan]

The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.

It's approximately the same odds as guessing someone's phone number. But your comment reminds me of a good friend grumbling about people lining up to hand over their Stupid Tax as he queued behind them to buy 20 cigarettes.

 

[ashambles]

The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.

Innumerate but better off people won't touch the lotto. Plenty of phenomenally stupid golf club members have benefited from lotto funds but don't buy into it.

Also 90%+ of the population couldn't calculate the odds even if handed a scientific calculator - which generally come with a handy button for the calculation.

It's a tax on hope, for the less well off and older people on limited fixed incomes.

 

[Purple]

Innumerate but better off people won't touch the lotto. Plenty of phenomenally stupid golf club members have benefited from lotto funds but don't buy into it.

Yes, those poor and needy Golf Club members...
Great to see us getting our priorities right.

 

[twofor1]

Very long odds alright with the National Lottery even on the smaller prizes. I used to do 2 lines with the plus so €6 for each draw, maybe a few times a year I would win a tenner or less and win the occasional scratch card.

I now do a few numbers on the National Lottery in the bookies instead and regularly get a reasonable return, admittedly I give the bookie more than he gives me but my return is far higher than I was getting from the National Lottery.

I could of course break even every week by not placing any bet, but where's the fun in that.

 

[skrooge]

The Lottery is a tax on the innumerate.
There is one chance is approximately 10,700,000 of winning.

Purple you machine! With your heart of stone... I'm fractionally numerate and on occasion do the lotto.

While I agree with your appreciation of the odds you can't put a value on the that feeling of hope that a BIG payout brings to some.

I was going to say it's not all about the numbers but we all know it is.....

 

[Purple]

Purple you machine! With your heart of stone... I'm fractionally numerate and on occasion do the lotto.

While I agree with your appreciation of the odds you can't put a value on the that feeling of hope that a BIG payout brings to some.

I was going to say it's not all about the numbers but we all know it is.....

I do the Lotto the odd time as well but I'm dyslexic and not that bright so I have an excuse.

 

[Monbretia]

I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case! Keep it quiet and all that

 

[Purple]

I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case! Keep it quiet and all that

There's no point in doing it in Dublin. Either the culchies are very lucky or inveterate gamblers.

 

[twofor1]

I do it a few times a year, maybe more if it's big, but only when I'm travelling somewhere around the country so basically never do it in my home town just in case! Keep it quiet and all that

Yeah, a €19 million win would attract a bit of publicity alright.

I asked a friend what he would do about the begging letters if he was to win the jackpot, he said he would keep sending them.