Prices in Hungary (was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Sometimes you just have to trust your instinct, and my instinct says BUY hungary property!

Dont get me wrong ...... there are alot of uncertainties as well.

1. Yes falling population (but I believe this will be offset by international investment drawing more people into Budapest.
2. Highly political population, demonstrations can get nasty.
3. Xenophobia - the Russian era fallout.
4. Short termism in the Political sense - gotta keep the government purse in check or else EMU entry will be a distant dream.
5. In the short term - 2008 wages will remain low, although Budapest will benefit from a tourism boost thanks to budget airlines. Property prices are unlikely to boom in 2008 although tourism will have its effect. Owning in Budapest will become more attractive for foreigners thanks to cheap flights.

I bought 2 return flights to Budapest for £30 through Ryanair and book an apartment for the night for 20 Euro! Got to be the cheapest tourism destination in the world right now!

Tourism WILL BOOM 2008

Sorry - I really did try to be negative ...........

If you can think of any others ... feel free to add.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

MaxIII, I really think you need to be more cautious in relation to your investments in Budapest. It's very easy to make mistakes here - not sure if you've read amgd28's posts in previous threads. Many of the statements you make in this thread are quite outlandish, such as tourism booming next year. I don't see any reason for this to happen so suddenly. Low-cost airlines have been flying here for years already and while the number of visitors is increasing, nobody is predicting that a boom will occur anytime soon. Even if it did, would that have a major direct effect on the property market?

Russian is not widely understood here anymore. There haven't been any borders to EU citizens for over three years, yet few have relocated here and I find it very unlikely that wages will catch up with the rest of the EU in ten years.

And by the way, is a 'political population' really a negative thing? I'm sure if Tony Blair had stated that he had lied about everything just to get re-elected for a second term, some UK citizens might have been slightly annoyed.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Sometimes you just have to trust your instinct, and my instinct says BUY hungary property!

Dont get me wrong ...... there are alot of uncertainties as well.

Uncertainties :confused: Are you kiddin' us ????

Maxx III, I give you 10 out of 10 for enthusiasm but as an investor you act as Kermit the Frog... Bein' Green ;)
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

And by the way, is a 'political population' really a negative thing?

Negative - depending on how you look at it. Problematic from the point of view of outsiders looking in. Political strife does not encourage FDI.

When looking at an investment I look for the bigger picture, global shifts in investment and the likely winners and losers.

The reason I purchase in Hungary was because I saw the credit crunch coming, and that gold would boom, and that the pound would fall. The Carry trade in Japan would unwind resulting in a strengthening Yen. It goes on and on ....... its about the bigger picture and spotting the opportunities before they arise and having the bottle to trust your instinct. The Pound will fall much further as the BOE cuts interest rates in the near future. I sold all my £ and bought Euro before the Northern rock situation ...... currently im contemplating selling Euro and buying dollars - a US property to be exact. It depends a little on the timing of the gold boom ...... $1000 a once anybody?

Sell gold buy dollars ..... buy US property ....... move to and live in said property refinance buy second off plan, refinance Prague property .... buy second.

Just because you dont make money the way I do ...... doesnt mean that I will not make money. I have learnt to trust my insticts - too many missed opportunities over the years ....... I step up to the plate and play my hand - no longer the observer wishing that I had done something about a easy money making situation. Life is just too short; after all TIME is the most valuable commodity of all.

Little things do matter but just not to me, - since they are too time consuming, so what If i overpay on one apartment a few 1000 euro - I am confident that over the next few years that it will be a drop in the ocean. My time is better spent looking for the next opportunity.

For those of you who have been in Hungary for years investing in property ...... its simple .... you were either too late - or too early or perhaps just stayed too long. I am enterning the market now for a minimum of 5 yrs maximum of 10 yrs, because I KNOW THE FUTURE.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

I don't see any reason for this to happen so suddenly. Low-cost airlines have been flying here for years already and while the number of visitors is increasing, nobody is predicting that a boom will occur anytime soon. Even if it did, would that have a major direct effect on the property market?

Yes it would, but im not going into a long discussion about it.

All the pieces are in place for a property boom 2009.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Hi Max,
As almost all your posts on askaboutmoney have been about Hungarian property, can I conclude that you have a beneficial interest in trumpeting Hungary?

I am afraid some of your "advantages" rather weakened your argument. The ability to speak Russian hasn't exactly been a boon for Belarus and they're native speakers.

The lack of sunshine hasn't hindered Iceland.

Just because Hungary has had a sophisticated past and some forward thinking economic policies in the last decade doesn't mean buying into property is a sure thing... nor, does it make it comparable with Albania or Romania. It is indeed one of the most progressive countries in Eastern Europe but that doesn't make a property punt alright...

Gearoid.

You quote things in isolation - look at the big picture. Property prices in Estonia, Poland, Latvia I know are falling now ..... their property markets will be non performers for several years to come whilst wages catch up. Prague has had its second phase boom and after another fine year next year prices will slow there. As for Romania .... prices have gone crazy - primarily fueled by western speculators and I dont like joining the party late.

It is time for Hungary to catch up. Plain and simple, - it is quite literally the best choice now BECAUSE it is isolated from the Debt based western economies. Hungary will flourish whilst UK, Ireland and US stagnate.

There are so many reasons to choose Hungary - it would be daft not to.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

There are so many reasons to choose Hungary - it would be daft not to.

Also you previously quoted" No stupid lending" and to paraphrase - free of the shackles of debt compared to UK/Ireland and any subprime follow-on.

MaxIII - I unfortunately now have to burst your bubble and quote the following piece from Tim Price a reliable City Analyst and Journalist [Sept 20th,2007]

Eastern Europe has been a great investment in recent years, with funds such as Elena Shaftan’s widely-recommended Jupiter Emerging European Opportunities returning nearly 400% since September 2002, helped by consumer booms across the region. But for how much longer can this winning streak last? Take Hungary, for example, one of the region’s key markets. One of the main props behind the boom has been the Swiss carry trade (the less famous cousin of the yen carry trade). At this time last year, Hungarians were snapping up cross-border loans based on Swiss francs. With the interest rate in Switzerland sitting at 1.75%, loans could be secured at better than half the interest rate on the local currency, the forint – in fact, 80% of new Hungarian mortgages are in Swiss francs.

But as with everywhere else in the world, the cheap credit lines are beginning to dry up. Swiss interest rates are now sitting at 2.5%, and the forint has fallen by 9.8% against the Swiss franc in the past year, sending mortgage payments soaring. “We’re now seeing a vicious cycle where all this goes into reverse. The impact could be enormous,” says Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas inThe Daily Telgraph . Latvia has been the first to feel the pain. The country’s banks have halved lending to customers, says The Wall Street Journal, as free and easy lending led to a 70% jump in Riga house prices in 2006, even while wages rose only 33%. Like Hungary, its economy has been over-reliant on a consumer boom fuelled by cheap money. And now that that’s ending, Latvia is very vulnerable – along with other countries in the region – to the sub-prime loan crisis, says S&P, the credit ratings agency”.

Finally if all that is not bad enough the Budapest market has not even on the Reiter scale for any of the large private equity firms, hedge funds or large investment banks. It simply does not add up in their books. The economies do not yield enough critical mass and the fundamentals which I always harp on about in all blogs are not right. Search Budapest property or Hungary property in the FT search engine for instance and compare the same with Germany, Japan, and Singapore with property prefixed – look at the huge difference in the number of articles generated . Sorry if this bursts your bubble but hopefully the bull run in Gold to $1000 an ounce compensates. But unfortunately again Goldman Sachs and other analysts are only recommending $850 an ounce in the next 12 months period.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

MichaelDes, I noticed that article before in Money Week, but once again an international analyst has missed the point slightly:

"One of the main props behind the boom has been the Swiss carry trade (the less famous cousin of the yen carry trade). At this time last year, Hungarians were snapping up cross-border loans based on Swiss francs."


There hasn't been a property boom in Hungary since the early years of this decade. Few analysts would suggest that CHF mortgages have had any major effect on that particular boom. Secondly, to say that Hungarians have been 'snapping up' these mortgages is a total exaggeration. Most Hungarian buyers take out very small mortgages and are not exposed in the same way as, to use Tim's example, Latvians are. There is no culture of widescale lending in this country and it continues to be very difficult for locals to take out mortgages here in any currency.

(Incidentally, although the HUF can be quite an erratic currency and I agree that borrowing in CHF is risky, the HUF/CHF rate has not fallen by 9.8% in the last year sending mortgage payments soaring. I'm not sure where the journalist got his facts from. In fact, it has strengthened slightly according to my figures).

However, I agree with your analysis that Budapest is a difficult place to invest in at the minute. As it's a market that I know very well and because I am in a position to purchase good properties quickly at local prices, I have an advantage that most overseas investors don't.
 
Re: Foreign property dreams crash: dismal reading from today's Sunday Indo 21-10-07

It's an area of concern in Budapest that locals are borrowing so heavily in foreign currency mortgages (mainly CHF) - approximately 80% according to recent figures.

CHF (2.69% with IEB): €224.17
HUF (10.34% with IEB): €861.67
EUR (5% estimated): €417

Budapest - by your own reckoning 80% of mortgages are CHF, if this dries up as a source and they have to borrow in HUF there is a serious problem. I think the Swiss like every banker worldwide is going to tighten credit lines and cross border ones such as this could become much more difficult. I understand and take your point at face value Hungarians have less of an LTV but I can not see many buying into these off plan developments aimed at oversea's property investors. What MaxIII is saying and doing, to me is bordering on reckless - take the advice of Amgd28.

As other CEE's come of the boil and retract, unfortunately what happens in Latvia etc and other regions will mean Hungary getting tarred with the same brush. Finally even in a weak market there are opportunities and you are able to spot these, contrary to many of us stuck in Ireland and UK with limited time on the ground to make all the necesscary assessments. Finally Buda if the apartment is self financing for anyone, even in a riskier CHF hold for now - although if not and I think this goes for the majority - dump it.
 
Re: Foreign property dreams crash: dismal reading from today's Sunday Indo 21-10-07

even in a weak market there are opportunities and you are able to spot these, contrary to many of us stuck in Ireland and UK with limited time on the ground to make all the necesscary assessments.

Absolutely! The main reason I'm interested in Budapest at the minute is because it is not over-run with foreign investors. Local demand continues to be high for certain apartments and rental returns are good for the right type of property.

I can not see many buying into these off plan developments aimed at oversea's property investors
I totally agree with you. Locals are not interested in these type of properties now though either.

In my opinion, EUR financing, while still a risk, makes more sense in Budapest where exchange rates are more preditable, rents are often in Euro, prices are frequently dictated by Euro-value and (in the case of overseas investors), the owner will also be paid in Euro. But you're right that lack of proper financing in the local currency is yet another reason why Budapest continues to perform at a low level. I look at that as an opportunity rather than a negative at the present time.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

I believe... that it's hard for foreigners to tell what locals want.
I agree that local knowledge is paramount. However, I think that living in HU and talking to locals all day, every day, in their own language, is also useful. I've noticed too that many locals in Hungary (and indeed everywhere) can be limited by their own experience. I would apply this logic to myself also and always check local versus international perspective as much as possible.

Central Prague is a typical example of differences in local and international perspective, where for the past decade, locals have been consistently priced out of the downtown by international buyers, who have pushed up the market to extraordinarily high levels.

In Budapest, what locals and international buyers want is sometimes different but from living here, the common elements become more apparent and the market starts to make much more sense.

In my experience, some locals make the decision to buy a small new apartment in the middle of nowhere, perhaps because getting finance for new builds can be easier. Many I've spoken to then regret their decision if they find out that they could have purchased a much nicer classic apartment in a premier neighbourhood at a lower price. Every decent agent will tell you that if they come across a realistically-priced smaller apartment with no problems in a renovated building on a nice street in V or VI, that they will sell it in a matter of days. Local and international buyers want to buy these properties, which appeal to buyer and renter alike.

I've noticed a huge difference too in attitude between those younger Hungarians who have lived abroad for a while versus those who haven't. Of the former, almost everyone I've met would prefer to live in a nice building in downtown Pest, as close to the action as possible, while the latter are more interested in price than location and possibly, but not necessarily, prefer Buda. Younger Hungarians certainly seem to be less in tune with the property market than their obsessive Irish equivalents and few I've spoken to could tell the real value of property in various locations in their city.

What I'm really interested in purchasing is what both locals and foreigners are interested in buying but also renting - a difficult task, but now and again, such properties do come to the market - at least for a few days anyway!
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Really interesting posts on this thread. Just returned from a trip to Budapest and after the first 24 hours which was a bit of a shock I found myself rather liking the city. Graffiti apart, although this element must put the wind up many potential investors, Budapest has a lot going for it.
I spent my stay walking and using my 3 day pass exploring all the districts and now I feel competent to know where to look, although I envy anyone with inside contacts but thats a perk from living there.
The local ballet company was delightful to watch and with big names like Kiri Te Kanawa due to appear later this month this is the magnet that will pull me into Budapest eventually.
I can see that it could easily be a rather painful experience entering the classical buildings market with so much to be on guard against, especially the properties that have crumbled a little too far for comfort. I think the answer is as 'budapest' suggests is to take plenty of time and make several visits using in my case the excuse of attending the offerings at the Opera House.
In the meanwhile this board will be scutinised to keep me up to date with all your informative posts.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

balmpots, hope you enjoyed your time here! It's difficult to compare Budapest to Western standards as I'm sure you've noticed. Graffiti is part and parcel of the entire city - even the best areas.

If you're buying as a second home as well as an investment, take your time and research the market as much as possible. Figure out which areas you would like to spend time in but don't rush into it as it's quite a flat market at present. In the meantime, visit as often as you can. (Hotel Oktogon, ten minutes walk from the opera house, is currently €15/double room/night!).
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Under Irish tax law, any profit is taxable in ireland less credit given to tax paid in foreign country.

Is it still recommended that foreigners buy (have to buy) a property through a company? If so, the exit strategy involves some careful planning as irish law will decide how the proceeds will be taxed.

There is a key post started by brendan that explains how using a company to buy property is generally not recommended under Irish law but can't find it now. The same rules apply when buying property abroad afaia.

You should get professional tax advise in both countries before going down this route.
 
Re: Prices in Hungary(was part of post on Sunday Indo article)

Is it still recommended that foreigners buy (have to buy) a property through a company?

Most people suggest buying privately rather than through a company. There used to be a limitation in relation to the number of apartments a foreigner could purchase without setting up a company in Budapest, but this is no longer the case. A foreign individual will also find it easier to get mortgage financing than a start-up HU company. However, there are pros and cons to each approach and investors should research and decide which option is best for them.
 
Re: Foreign property dreams crash: dismal reading from today's Sunday Indo 21-10-07

The additional risk of borrowing in a different currency is obviously present, but most analysts don't foresee the HUF weakening anytime soon.

Do the laws of economics not mean that the value of a currency with a high interest rate will fall relative to a currency that has a low interest rate? Sure otherwise wouldn't the whole world borrow swiss francs and lorry them into hungarian forints? Will the value of the currencies not change to reflect the different interest rates?
 
I think it would be quite risky to borrow in CHF and avail of high deposit interest rates in HUF. The difference in interest rate is not that great and the risk would not justify the potential reward.

However, the EUR/HUF value is pretty much controlled by the central bank of Hungary due to the agreed permissable trading band. It would intervene if the rate decreased or increased beyond this.
 
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