good time to buy sterling?

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trumpet

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I'm thinking of putting around 10k euro into my UK bank account assuming that sterling will rally in the near future. Is this wise?
 
It is wise if you don't mind losing money. I am not sure if it is wise to not mind losing money.

With current FX rate, 10K euro are about 8430 sterling. let's assume sterling rallies back up to 1.41 in 6 months, that would mean 11850 euro (or thereabouts). Or 18.5% gain. IMO unlikely that this happens in 6 months.

I sterling falls further, say to parity, than you lost 1670 euro. IMO more likely in a 6 months timeframe than the other way round.
 
As the man said "a bird in the hand...." Thanks for your words of wisdom newirishman.
 
Sterling is now approx. at €1.11. It will "probably" IMHO weaken further towards parity over the next month or two. What are peoples thoughts that, if it does go near parity, to start buying say €10k of £sterling?

Also what are the options to do this without large FX charges? How does one go about opening a current a/c in the UK if residing permanently in Rep of Ire.

Apologies if the above seems simplistic to some posters but any feedback and assistance would be much appreciated.

Thanks
 
google opening non resident uk bank account. It is doable, but not easy.

try currencyfair.com for the exchange, linking both accounts.

it is impossible to forecast future exchange rates. If I tell you that they might be more or they might be less, then I can't be wrong!
 
Donnie, given that sterling is at a historic low and is IMHO likely to do lower I think it is fair to say that it is not a bad time to buy sterling now ....or wait a little longer and make further gains.
 
In my opinion it is a terrible time to buy Sterling. Now that Brexit has been clearly indicated to take place in Spring 2019, it is likely that Sterling will bump along the bottom for the next twelve months or so due to the high levels of uncertainty of the form that Brexit will take. In the final six months in the lead up to the actual separation it will become clear if Brexit will be 'hard' or 'soft'. In the case of the former, it is likely that Sterling will dip closer to parity (and beyond) if it is not there by then already as the reality of the new world order for the UK takes hold with tariffs and other trade disadvantages. If Brexit is going to be 'soft' i.e. the UK have successfully negotiated a workable trade system with the EU, I would expect Sterling to start rising back towards previous 'normal' levels as the UK will effectively have got the best of both worlds as they would see it.

However the noises from Westminster over the past number of days would suggest that the more hawkish, separatist Ministers favour a 'hard' Brexit. This is going to have a significant effect on Sterling's long-term outlook.
 
Fair points Tallpaul.

But if you were willing to hold your stg for 5 years or longer in a reasonable interest bearing account would you not stand to gain significantly given that its at a 168 year low as of yesterday? As I said though in my post above, if one was to hold out and buy in the coming months and years they would likely stand to make an even bigger gain. This is predicated though on the assumption that over 5 years or longer the Stg would recover.
 
Why do you think Sterling will recover? The Japanese yen has been under the cosh for more than twenty years due to Japan's moribund economy. Who is to say that Brexit will not have a profound depressive effect on the British economy for a generation? Personally I think speculating on FX to make money is a mug's game. Far too many variables involved over which even a sovereign government has little control.
 
jim said:
Fair points Tallpaul.

But if you were willing to hold your stg for 5 years or longer in a reasonable interest bearing account would you not stand to gain significantly given that its at a 168 year low as of yesterday? As I said though in my post above, if one was to hold out and buy in the coming months and years they would likely stand to make an even bigger gain. This is predicated though on the assumption that over 5 years or longer the Stg would recover.
Click to expand...

Is this correct. Have you a source for it. I would be very interested to know.
 
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Seeing you asked this in July, and sterling has fallen since, and it doesn't really look like it'll recover to the same as it used be for a long while yet (my guess), I hope you didn't move the money!
 
tallpaul said:
Why do you think Sterling will recover? The Japanese yen has been under the cosh for more than twenty years due to Japan's moribund economy. Who is to say that Brexit will not have a profound depressive effect on the British economy for a generation? Personally I think speculating on FX to make money is a mug's game. Far too many variables involved over which even a sovereign government has little control.
Click to expand...

I don't think or know if stg will recover. What I do know is that it is at a record low and is likely to drop further therefore depending on ones outlook on the currency it could be a good time to buy over the coming months after it drops further and it gets closer to brexit. I predict though that it will recover, along with the uk economy post brexit but that's just my opinion.
 
Brexit wont happen. All that is happening is pure political posturing at the moment. When it comes to the hard-ball negotiations, the whole concept of Brexit will be blown apart. There are simply too many complex factors against Brexit to allow it to happen and simply not enough clear factors in favour of Brexit to make it happen.
1. There is a legal challenge in the British High Court against the triggering of Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. Unlike Irish referendums (before Lisbon and Nice), outcomes in British referenda have no real legal standing. Even if this HC challenge fails, the House of Lords may scupper any Commons vote.
2. Scotland, the emergence of another campaign for independence and subsequent break up of UK may sway some Brexiteers from pulling the trigger.
3. Ireland, the prospect of a return to a hard border will collapse the Stormont assembly if SF are still in power. If SF administer a border (be it British, Irish or EU) within the 32 counties they may as well wind-up and go home.
4. EU, the notion of retaining full access to the free market without concessions to the EU in some form is simply dumb. It wont and cant happen without threatening the very existence of the EU itself.
5. No-one actually knows what Brexit is.
6. The Liberal Democrats have already stated they want a second referendum and will campaign to Remain
7. The Labour Party have said that anything less than a full Brexit, it will need to be put to the people again.
8. If Brexit was stirred by too much immigration, then it is worth noting that the largest cohort of immigrants come from the Commonwealth countries, not the EU.

The list goes on...but these points are to the fore.

If you have the funds, buy Sterling on the way down.
 
Ill place a bet with you Bigshort that Brexit will happen! Its happening.
 
You are saying brexit wont happen.

I am saying brexit will happen.

Brexit is the uk leaving the EU
 
jim said:
You are saying brexit wont happen.

I am saying brexit will happen.

Brexit is the uk leaving the EU
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Yes, but are we talking about a 'soft' Brexit? Or 'hard' brexit, or what?
To me, a Norwegian style deal is not Brexit. They would still be subject to contributing to the EU budget amongst other things.
To my mind Brexit will place the Uk in the equivalent trading position as Russia, Japan, China, US etc.
A Norwegian, Icelandic or Swiss type arrangement is not Brexit, as I understand it.
 
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