Future price of Irish properties

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I'll have to set the recorder for that one.

By the way.........

Dublin's average house price now exceeds that of London's !!!! :eek: :eek:

[broken link removed]

(Note the Dublin average has gone even higher since the survey gathered its data: It's now greater than E 350,000 )
 
Duplex said:
The Jurys Doyle site sells for 53,000,000 an acre. Dublin now more expensive than London ? their must be some rational explanation ;)

Well, we do have a lot of eastern european workers arriving here. This appeared to be the jist of the justification given by a prominent bank economist the other day. And I kid you not !!
 
That link posted by CoffeeBrew states: "Some 65.2 percent of Europeans owned their own property in 2004, compared with 62 percent the previous year. Spain has the highest rate of home ownership at 87 percent, followed by Ireland at 81 percent and Belgium at 78 percent."

If Ireland had 81% home ownership when that survey was done, and 70,000, and the rumour is that a third of houses are unoccupied, it is puzzling that prices keep climbing.

By chance today I caught an afternoon t.v. programme "A Place By The Sea" (don't usually watch daytime t.v.). It featured a Limerick hairdresser who wanted to buy a holiday home in West Cork. His choice was some rather wonderful cottages around Schull, Kinsale etc. at what seemed to me very reasonable prices (£190,00 to £250,000 stg). I did a double-take when the programme anchor-person told him he could "expect to rent out a two-bedroom apartment for "about E1,000 a week" to cover the mortgage. Yet I read recently that the tourist activity in the regions - anywhere other than Dublin - had fallen off dramatically in recent years.

As someone starting to think about relocating to Ireland for retirement it is very difficult to get a sense of the realities of buying a home. If these 'vibrant centres of international yachting and tourism' are half-boarded up do I want to live there? If the property 'bubble' is about to burst and the country go into deepest recession (and then go bust-after-bust because of the huge social services commitment rise in unemployment would entail) it might not be the most cheerful arena in which to land up.
 
soma said:
The view from bloomberg... they've pretty much decided we're all nuts :D

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=ah8NnSt.33wk&refer=uk

Something to note on the Bloomberg article that Soma posted.
  1. It raises the possibility of the we have a bubble in Ireland and quotes someone who believes the boom is ending.
  2. Later on it quotes the chairman of McInerney Holdings who says the Irish market remains buoyant and continued strong demand is anticipated.
This might be an odd concept to the reader who normally relies on Irish media sources. It's called balance. It's starts out with the facts and then allows a deduction to be made from the facts but then invites another viewpoint.

It seems to me anyway that nearly all "reporting" from Irish sources on property issues seem to quote from estate agents or banks and allow their statements to go unchallenged or fail to invite an alternative viewpoint.

Here's an example:
http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1477573

Where's the downside ? Where's the risk ? Where's the alternate viewpoint ? Amazing !

Occasionally a balanced article crops up but it within a few days it's lost in a flood of vested interest hype.

It's not just me is it ?
 
Somebody said recently that property speculation is the new religion in this country, and just like the in days of John Charles McQuaid, woe betide anyone who challenges or dissents from the consensus view.
 
which banks are most vulnerable if the housing market collapses. Ive heard that northern rock are vulnerable
 
evan said:
which banks are most vulnerable if the housing market collapses. Ive heard that northern rock are vulnerable
As NR don't offer mortgages in Ireland, I can't see how this could be the case. Anglo Irish do have a substantial dependancy in the Irish & UK property markets, as far as I know.
 
Murt10 said:
Has anyone any idea of how to short the Irish property market.

I know someone who did that to the UK market in the 80's bust.

He thought the bubble would bust. He sold his house they had lived in for 30 odd years (and needed a bit of work). With the money received they travelled the world in complete luxery (including Concorde and QE2) for 12 months. Came back and bought a house in the same street, done it up top to bottom and effectively it didn't cost them a penny.
 
Could happen but I would think unlikely at the current moment, the point about Germany still being in the infancy of a recovery is still the most critical one in my view. I do however think the rises will come sooner than many think and there could be more of them than envisaged by some economists over here.
 
I agree entirely on the property coverage by the Irish media being anything but objective, media in US and UK (NY Times, Guardian, Daily Express) becoming much more negative of late, maybe due to the fact that we have never experienced a property bust, always a first time.
 
Even when an article is balanced, they often choose a headline that is not.
That way, people who are glancing or skimming will be given the "correct" impression.

For example:

http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1480675

The headline here is:

"House-build sector for a bumpy landing, but certainly not a crash"


There we go, message delivered.


However what the author actually said was:


"If the brokers are right, it will be a bumpy landing for the house-building sector, but certainly not a crash"


You can see the use of the 'If' conjunction conveys an important condition in order for the headline to be true. That condition is dropped for the headline.


Also doesn't the SBpost sponsor property investment seminars around the country ?





 
CoffeeBrew said:
Even when an article is balanced, they often choose a headline that is not.
That way, people who are glancing or skimming will be given the "correct" impression.

For example:

http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1480675

The headline here is:

"House-build sector for a bumpy landing, but certainly not a crash"


There we go, message delivered.


However what the author actually said was:


"If the brokers are right, it will be a bumpy landing for the house-building sector, but certainly not a crash"


You can see the use of the 'If' conjunction conveys an important condition in order for the headline to be true. That condition is dropped for the headline.


Also doesn't the SBpost sponsor property investment seminars around the country ?







This is really clutching at straws. That's the nature of a HEADLINE. It's supposed to be catchy/ eye-catching.

"If the brokers are right, it will be a bumpy landing for the house-building sector, but certainly not a crash" would not make for a very good headline.
 
Gabriel said:
This is really clutching at straws. That's the nature of a HEADLINE. It's supposed to be catchy/ eye-catching.

"If the brokers are right, it will be a bumpy landing for the house-building sector, but certainly not a crash" would not make for a very good headline.

Wow !

Guess who's back back back...

It certainly got my eye - it seemed biased.
 
CoffeeBrew said:
Wow !

Guess who's back back back...

I didn't realise this was a mutually exclusive club.

CoffeeBrew said:
It certainly got my eye - it seemed biased.

All newspaprers are biased. A journalist will always put his/her slant on an issue...whether it be house prices or the price of cheese. This applies to all articles in all newspapers.

However the omission of an IF condition (in a headline) hardly strikes me as particularly biased.
 
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