That's the bizarre thing, there seems to be very little idea of how a post Brexit EU-UK relationship would function. I would have thought those looking to stay in would be pointing out the uncertainties, inconveniences & potential EU backlash of a 'Yes' vote.
That's the thing though... the 'remain' side are raising all these uncertainties but it's unknown exactly how they will manifest themselves, so not gaining that much traction.
Even in their worst case scenarios, the 'remain' side point to Switzerland and Norway as current examples of a future UK relationship to the EU. Hardly likely to scare anyone.
The 'leave' side point to Australia and Canada, smaller English-speaking nations than the UK which are managing in a globalised world with trade deals but not as formal members of a political organisation. Somehow the remain side expect people to believe that Australia and Canada can forge their own path but not the UK? It's a very weak argument in favour of remaining.
Also, if the UK remain in the EU, as the 'leave' side point out, you cannot assume that things will continue as they were in the last 5 years. It is not static.
The 'leave' side point out that if you are worried about an EU backlash now, is that really an organisation you want to get further embedded into? Better to get out now and take the consequences that be party to such a petty minded organisation.
Any EU backlash against the UK would likely hurt EU member states more than the UK. Any restriction on trade will hit Ireland massively. Any restriction on tourism will hit France, Spain, Greece, Malta etc. The EU would be cutting off their nose to spite their faces, so I couldn't rule it out entirely!
The UK has been one of the relatively sane voices in the EU. An EU without UK will be to the detriment of Ireland. As an Irishman, I'm very concerned about a Brexit.
If I lived in UK, I suspect I would vote to leave though.
It is a pity that Cameron could not secure a stronger negotiating position from the EU e.g. enough to keep people like Boris Johnson on the 'remain' side. I think that would certainly have swung things to 'remain'.
None of the arguments I have heard in favour of 'remain' have been particularly persuasive, they are very much presenting a negative view of the consequences of exiting and not a very good one at that. It is the leave side that are making a much more persuasive, positive case, for a UK outside the EU.
That's not to say which side is right or wrong, just in terms of presenting their case, the 'leave' side is miles ahead right now.
I suspect it will come down to how optimistic or pessimistic UK voters feel in the run up to the vote. If things are going well at home and only bad news is coming from the continent, then I can see 'leave' winning.