32 year old, hopes to semi retire by 40

Discussion in 'Money makeover' started by peterpanics, Jul 5, 2009.

  1. ronaldo

    ronaldo Frequent Poster

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    I agree with this. I've read quite a few posts where inaccurate advice was given by Revenue on the phone - this is the first in relation to gambling tax but that's because it's an uncommon query on the forums.

    I don't see why someone earning a consistent €12,000 per month is so unwilling to pay for advice and is resorting to unproveable phone calls instead. If I were on that boat, I'd be looking for the Revenue to give written confirmation and would also get one of the big accountancy firms to give the advice on letter-headed paper as well. The cost of the advice will be a drop in the ocean compare to the winnings.

    The argument from Fella seems to be "gambling winnings aren't taxable in Ireland" which is true. The question is, would the revenue consider what you are doing to be gambling? That's a lot tougher to answer.

    Comparing your arbitrage to JP McManus gambling winnings is a waste of time. McManus is a multi-billionaire and what he does is actual gambling. In a lot of cases, he bets large sums on his own horses to win. He doesn't tend to lay the horses he bets with other bookmakers or do anything else to remove the risk of the bet.

    A lot of his bets are for sums in the region of £100,000 and, like most gamblers I know, you only tend to hear about the winners.
     
  2. Fella

    Fella Frequent Poster

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    Who said I use arbitrage? And I never compared myself to jp someone else mentioned me I regularly bet 10k on matches I don't lay bets off , why should I push it with revenue I've asked them is there tax on gambling they said no I've askeda friend that's a senior partner in PWC he said no, I've looked on revenue site there s no mention of it. I take risk everyday gambling I lose 10k some days are revenue going to let me right that off as a tax expense I think not.

    I'm not going to go to revenue and have them scrutinising my finances and looking to take 60k a year of me for nothing. I'll take my chances I've made over 400k and they've not been near me.
     
  3. RainyDay

    RainyDay Frequent Poster

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    From http://www.taxandlegal.ie/articlec.html

     
  4. mandelbrot

    mandelbrot Former user

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    You're contradicting yourself now...

    Trading sports implies backing & laying off, and what is a gambling edge, if not an arbitrage opportunity? (genuine question)

    And how do you put on tens of thousands of bets a month if you're not trading - You hardly bet on that many different discrete events?
     
  5. Fella

    Fella Frequent Poster

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    Trading example

    Last night washington redskins laid 10k at 1.26 (1/4) rebacked them at 2 (evens)
    If they didn't trade to 2 I lost 2500 that was my get out, thats not risk free its not an arbitrage. I just rebacked skins for 2500 meaning 7500 or 0 was result neglecting commission. I call that trading I hedge big bets like that because its cheap.

    Over the years I have picked up many edges obviously no gambler is going to tell you where he makes his money , I specialise in inplay betting I can price an event quickly and accurately imo, I bet alot on NFL Tennis and Cricket . I have built up alot of contacts over the years with other gamblers , we keep in contact and discuss alot of things , factors affecting games and player injuries and weather. For example a Rugby match might be scheduled for Saturday and we look on Monday and see that its likely to be raining that day , we might oppose the overs in the game and back the underdog to defy the cap , there is no chance of arbitrage here at this early stage I have taken the opinon either on my own or after speaking with people i respect that its worth hammering the unders line for this game. I might have 5k on unders and 5k on the dog to beat the handicap if it rains and is low scoring at half time I might get out depending on odds as its a cheap get out normally , if the match starts high scoring good chance i am down 10 k. Its about getting more of these right than wrong which I do.

    I go against public sentiment alot also, this can happen when a team player boxer anyone has been over hyped in the media. I think as a serious gambler you have to be always thinking and watching whats going on in the world of sport, alot of people don't see the importance of individual players and don't know how to price games up , when Countinho was injured for liverpool that was a major factor , I had the stats on countinho so opposed liverpool without him , similary carrick for united more recently. Murray winning wimbledon , opposed him for months after that to make a killing his head was never going to be right for a while after that according to people i spoke with and i agreed went against Murray.

    I suppose my edge is my knowledge and sporting opinion as well as contacts I have built up , I can see how games are unfolding and make split second decisions , Sweden v Portugal when Ronaldo scored his third goal i got 5k on him to win the balloon d'or while the game was still on , he is 1.38 to win it now , its cheap for me to trade out now for 1k and no loss if he doesn't win.

    Of course not every bet wins , layed Froch for 10k liability against Groves inplay because the fight was only going one way imo (feel cheated about that one) I was bout to trade out for a very handsome profit but ref stopped it and i was down 10k.

    There are lots of other edges , markets tend to overreact to wickets in cricket when they are actually insignificant compared to overs left I instantly price these and decide if the wicket was important alot of Betfair and other books inplay odds are controlled by bots and you can use your own ability to outwit these bots.
     
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  6. mandelbrot

    mandelbrot Former user

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    Yeah that all sounds like gambling (still can't figure out how you end up with >10k bets per month!) - good luck with it :)
     
  7. DB74

    DB74 Frequent Poster

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    TBH it's not gambling, it's trading. No different to buying a share and getting out with a profit or having to take a loss. Undoubtedly you have a method for trading which will involve getting out for a loss at a certain price etc, likewise with a profit. It's not gambling. I appreciate that a game or match or whatever can go against you but if that happens then you will take a loss at some point. It's unlikely that you will lose your entire stake except in exceptional circumstances. Likewise you will rarely see a profitable bet through to its conclusion. It's methodical and involves multiple small profits and losses, even in a single game.

    Good luck with it, it's hard work and lonely at times so fair play to you for making it pay. Just don't believe the mantra that "gambling isn't taxable" because IMO you could successfully argue that what you do isn't actually gambling but a sports equivalent to trading shares and could easily be determined as taxable by either a Revenue official who understands what you do or a judge.
     
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  8. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    So you're laying off your bets where necessary. You are mathematical and methodical, very very focused. It must take an extraodinary amount of concentration. But if you're only working 2 days you certainly have the time for it. But it does beg the question, how come the likes of the bots in Betfair cannot beat you. While I'm at it, what is a 'bot'? Doesn't Betfair have powerful computers to run the numbers, yet you can beat that?

    I wonder is it possible to sustain your level of intensity all of your life, of only when you are relatively young.

    You mention a profit of 12K a month, but I assume some months you're losing 60K and others winning 90K etc. How do you keep the control not to chase your losses, and to not touch the money you have made. Of course having that control means you're not what is called a compulsive gambler.

    Must say, it's an interesting insight into a different world.

    I don't think one million Euro is enough to retire on at 40? And I don't think it's wise to give up your permanent pensionable employment. One day, you might be very glad of it.
     
  9. Gerry Canning

    Gerry Canning Frequent Poster

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    Keep up the (careful)gambling as 1 million ain,t near enough to retire @ 40 on.
    Eg if you live to 85 that s paltry 22, 000 per annum+a bit of interest .And the 22,000 will be hit by inflation.
    ps; keep the day job for now.
     
  10. ronaldo

    ronaldo Frequent Poster

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    I think this post vastly underestimates the power of compound interest and investing. That "a bit of interest" amounts to quite a lot over 45 years on an initial €1,000,000.

    It'd be relatively easy to retire indefinately on €1,000,000. For example, the dividend yield on the Eurostoxx 50 is about 2.5%. The yield on the iShares EURO Dividend UCITS ETF is about 4.25%.

    It'd be relatively easy to pick a well diversified portfolio of shares, both in Europe and beyond, aiming for a yield of 3% with good opportunity for growth. There are many companies with records spanning decades for increasing dividends beyond the rate of inflation.

    I'm not trying to justify retiring at 40 with €1,000,000. I'm just saying that it's a lot more doable than you would suggest - but why someone who was able to amass €1,000,000 by 40 would want to retire on €30,000 or so per year is beyond me.
     
  11. Marion

    Marion Moderator

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    @Gerry Canning

    €22,000 per annum - paltry!


    That's what teachers at the max net per annum after 40 years hard slog would aspire to. :(


    You are completely right. it 's paltry.


    Good luck to Fella in amassing wealth. Wish I were as brave and as competent.

    Marion
     
  12. mtk

    mtk Frequent Poster

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    As someone who contributed to this thread before it went into a gambling aside all i can say is "fair play" and you have certanily made the thread even more interesting.

    Also as someone who has accumulatey over a million through saving mainly and inheritance (30%) I would agree it may not enough to retire "securely ". I guess its also about confidence and you certainly have that!
     
  13. Fella

    Fella Frequent Poster

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    Sorry if I came across a bit confrontational earlier in thread , you guys here actually seem alright :)

    I find it annoying when people say you are not risking anything and your chances of loss are slim and its all mathematical, the mathematical part is true but the chance of loss is very realistic. You cannot make 12k a month average from arbitrage imho, I may have caused confusion at the start by saying i'm a sports trader and have other edges but I hate and have never said "i'm a professional gambler" i think it sounds like a d*ckhead thing to say so I just don't say infact I rarely even speak to others about other than my wife and contacts I have made online. How can you chat with mates properly when most give out about been broke and you are making or losing more in a day than they earn in a month.

    My months aren't as extreme as -60k +90k , looking back at last 4 years the biggest losing month is -22k , my months this year jan 11k february 9k march 16k april 8k may 19k june 8k july 10k , august 10k , so as you see its fairly solid , there are so many things i could explain about gambling because im studying it for 6 years at least , I didn't set out to become a gambler full time but I came across it by accident I wondered how the bookmakers were winning and average punters were losing so worked backwards from there, i lost a few thousand as a mug punter then started studying gambling and have never made a bad bet again since then , many losing bets but no bad bets , even good bets lose. An example of a good bet that loses is one I have just placed now that cost me nearly 3k euro.

    This is not risk free but its a good bet , its a good bet because the expected value of the bet long term is + and not -

    The offer was a casino offer 20% of your losses back to 600. Some people may not see the appeal in this but i look at it as

    lets stick 3000 on red on roulette table , if it wins i win 3000 if it loses i lose 2400 (this is not what i did optimum strategy is slightly more complicated, I actually stuck 600 on 5 numbers) but however working on the first example
    If you look at roulette the casino house edge is the zero they out at 35/1 but there is 37 numbers.

    So if i back red i have 18/37 chance of winning (18 reds out of 37 numbers)
    So ~48% of the time I win 3000
    and ~52% of the time I lose 3000 but get 600 back so i lose 2400

    fag packet maths .48*3000 - .52*2400
    1440-1248= so the value of the offer is + to the tune of 192 euro
    If I do this offer enough times in my life I should be up 192 euro on average , so its a value bet even though it lost it was the right play.

    Every time I place a bet the odds are in my favour (as much as I can judge) thats why when people say bookies will always win and you will lose it all eventually I don't really see myself losing it all , Its almost impossible that I could lose everything I never risk more than half of 1% on any bet.

    The reason I don't chase losses is because I hate gambling its a lonely life and I work long days and I work every saturday and Sunday when most sport is on. I don't like bookmakers they raise your limits if your a loser and let you lose more and more and if you are a winner they close you down and try there best to steal your money. I have had over 50k stolen off me in 5 years , bookmakers close down and you don't get your money back , they palp your bets and casinos they are a law onto themselves wil try anything not to pay you out.

    As someone mentioned reason I have picked 40 to stop is I need an end game it is mentally exhausting you try looking at 6 laptops at one time chatting on skype with other gamblers and having every sporting event thats on refreshing on a betfair screen in real time , while logging into a few hundred accounts , its tough , its not at all glamorous and the administration work alone is a full time job , moving money about to 700+ different bookmakers , jumping through hoops to get your money back its not a life I want to do forever. Already im mentally exhausted if i make it to 40 and have a good few quid behind me id love to close the laptops and be able to sit and relax and a watch sport without having to bet on it . having too much money disconnects you with others and life aswell , I can lose more than i make in a month and then have to get up for work the next day its a head f*ck.

    To answer a question re Betfair bots, people buy or make software and program it to place bets for them at Betfair , they program in what odds should be at certain times in games and certain scores , the bot places the bet for them if the odds match there criteria , these are not always 100% accurate , it really is an essay in itself to explain why this is the case and i am a terrible explainer (not sure thats a word!) but my grammer and writing is also terrible so apologies anyone reading this.

    Ok I am well over my word quota and don't want to get banned , but why retire at 40? I would like to not have to work , I would like to go to college I have never been I have an interest in maths and economics that I would like to explore , I would like to do some charity work and help others , I could live quite frugally if needs be, I think 22k sounds like a decent income I am not sure if there was sarcasm in saying it was paltry or not. Interesting to hear different opinions on weather 1million at 40 would suffice or not thats the kind of stuff I originally wanted to read in the thread when i contributed but somehow it got side tracked into weather or not gambling was taxable income , i never even believed this to be an issue as I always was fairly sure it was non taxable income , I don't want to get back into that debate i think its agree to disagree on that one kinda thing.

    MTk congrats on saying 700k thats an incredible achievement ill have to read through your posts and try get an insight as to how you done that.
     
    jim likes this.
  14. DerKaiser

    DerKaiser Frequent Poster

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    Fascinating stuff Fella. You were always going to get some grief early in the thread with a declaration of your typical monthly winnings, 9/10 guys who claim that kind of return are usually deluding themselves. I can see you have a very well thought through disciplined approach though.

    Your example of the 20% of losses back is an outrageously generous offer from the casino but it highlights the key reason why the bookies always win. The average person might recognise the value of that bet and make it. If they lose they might walk away. If they win, chances are they will be psychologically drawn to betting again. Finding an edge is hard work, so they will probably end up making bets where the bookie has a 10% edge and are pretty much on a hiding to nothing from there on.

    I think you'd have no trouble getting a degree in economics or statistics if you could tolerate they less interesting parts of the course. Hopefully though you'll keep the winning un going for another few years and most importantly not be too proud to quit when the edges you have currently developed are eventually eroded.
     
  15. Gerry Canning

    Gerry Canning Frequent Poster

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    Marion, I also completely agree with you . I am not a State Employee but the harping on I hear about teachers is simply UNFAIR.
    Have a good Christmas and to hell with begrudgers!
     
  16. Marion

    Marion Moderator

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    @Gerry Canning:

    Thank you. Have a great Christmas also.

    Marion
     
  17. goingforgold

    goingforgold Frequent Poster

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    To be fair, sometimes teachers are their own worst enemy :(
    Above statement is ridiculous and untrue. A teacher on top of their salary scale earns in excess of 65K gross inc. allowances (slightly less for new teachers), so to state that's only 22K net is misleading (if I'm being nice). They then get a pension of c.100K tax free and half their salary for the rest of their lives. This would cost a fortune to fund in a private pension scheme!

    http://www.asti.ie/pay-and-conditio...for-teachers-appointed-prior-to-january-2011/

    Fair play to you fella and your method for earning so much cash...think you need to be cut out for it though! Best of luck in future.
     
  18. Bronte

    Bronte Frequent Poster

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    You're a bit of alright yourself Fella, ;) fascinating insight into your world. Thanks for so much detail. Where to begin.

    Your biggest loss is 22 K in a month, did that not make you sweat? Do you set yourself a limit?

    You've stated that now you don't make bad bets, and you've defined that even losing bets are not bad bets, at least I think that's what you did, but I'm unsure, any chance of a similar definition of a bad bet?

    Above, from your post, I've highlighted the word 'almost'. Are you not conceding there that ultimately you can lose everything. How are you going to bank your gains and not touch them, I think that would be important?

    Your life does seem a bit lonely, I did have the image of you in a dark room full of computers and odds and sports newspapers, to me a bit like the young men on the trading floors of the big investment firms. Personally I see no difference between what you do and what they do. But it seems to me it's a very young man's game, a lot get burnt out very early, and it seems to be an almost exclusively male world. No idea how you can manage so many accounts and bets, as you said it's exhausting and ultimately unsustainable. So you're get out strategy is good, but it might have to be before 40.

    How on earth does your wife put up with your lifestyle. (No need to answer that or any other questions !)

    Agree that bookmakers raise the limits if you lose, and ditch you if you win. What do you mean by losing 50K. What does 'palping' a bet mean. I am aware that one has to be very wary of the terms and conditions in bookies offices, and of course their ultimate limits. Only find out about that when a person hits the it big time.

    Do I understand you correctly, a 'bot' is a computer programe to place bets? Where does the name come from. How can they beat the computers of Betfair?

    I reiterate that 1 million at 40 is not enough to live on, it might be for some people, but nothing beats a steady income. You think 22K is enough to sustain you. Is that for you, your wife, and kids if you have them, you did mention also that you play hard, as in restaurant spending etc.
     
  19. Fella

    Fella Frequent Poster

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    Yes losing that much is not nice but it happens, when it happens I try look at what I have made so far and think to myself well what are you going to do ? Mope about thinking about it , stop betting altogether or just soak it up. Nobody makes me place these bets it was a personal choice. If they lose they lose

    Gambling is 100% about maths you simply cannot win long term unless the odds you are getting on the event happening are greater than the probability of the event happening.

    If we imagine a fair coin toss , heads and harps a bookie pays you out at less than evens on a coin toss , if a bookie was pricing a coin toss he would price it as 10/11 heads 10/11 harps. It should be even/even but the bookie takes his edge.

    A bad bet is when you bet in the bookie on either heads or harps , it doesn't matter if it wins or loses it was still a bad bet , long term you will lose money taking these bets.

    So everything is price dependent, the reason why most people lose betting is that they ignore the price , they go to the bookies or log in online and back luiz suarez to score first and then celebrate when they win , i'd rather lose money on a good bet than win money on a bad bet. I spoke to someone this morning that told me they had luiz suarez to score first at 9/4 they had 100 quid on , they were proud of this.


    Pre match Betfair odds are fairly accurate they give a very good indication of the true probability of an event happening , its like a currency or a stock its there allday and if the price is too high it will be backed and if its too low it will be layed , so it will move about until the odds settle on the agreed price , I take it as a general guide that this pre match odds is as close to the true odds as possible.

    So last night suarez was 3.65 near kick off to back at betfair to get the first goal. My man backed him at 3.25 (apologies for using decimal odds its easier and I never work in fractions 3.25 is 9/4 divide 9 by 4 and add 1 ,its your return for 100 stake simplified 100 at 3.25 returns 225 +100 stake so 325)

    so the true probability of suarez scoring first was
    100/3.65 = 27.39%
    my man was only getting paid out 3.25 though not 3.65

    So 27.39% of time he wins 225
    and 72.31% he loses 100

    So if he does that bet 100 times 27.39 wins of 225 - 72.31 losses of 100 = 6162-7231=-1069 so he will lose 1069 or his expected loss per bet is -10.69 .
    This is a bad bet and a bet many people make everyday.

    I had money on Bendtner to score first because I got news during the day he would be playing , I got him at 8/1 and after team news came out he was alot lower than that say about 7.4

    So my bet on Bendtner
    100/7.4 13.51 true % of him scoring first
    13.51% of time I win 800 10808
    86.4% of time i lose 100 -8640
    expected value of bet long term 21.68 per 100 invested .

    I would rather be on Bendtner first goal scored at a +EV (expected value) than Suarez at a -EV even if it meant that my bet was a loser because long term if you are backing what is more likely to happen than the true probability of event happening you will be up .

    So my bet on Bendtner was a good bet I had as much as I could on it and took it in doubles also , first legs of my doubles I would just take any par value match that goes onto my Bendtner bet , so i find bets that are roughly par value and back them , i picked a couple of tennis matches that were on early and had a few hundred doubled with Bentdner in total i had just shy of 1k going onto Bentdner , bookies are more keen to take bets on doubles because they are often a mug bet but they can be used wisely to leverage your stake on the value side.


    The return on investment is high in gambling , you can reuse your money quickly as soon as an event is over you can resuse this same cash and make more out of it , so even a 5% edge repeated over and over again can't bring in great ROI , I don't actually need that much money online , at the moment I have about 100k in bookmakers and ewallets and 200k in bank , I just cream off the top of that 100k online and stick it in the bank. If I lost the 100k I have online now it would be a total black swan event , the chances are very small , some bigger bets I have I will hedge with other gamblers and sometimes we come together to lower the variance.

    If you look at optimal strategy on a 20% losses on roulette i mentioned earlier the best way to do this is 3000 on one number

    1/37 * win 3000*35 2837
    36/37 * lose 2400 -2335
    expected value is 502 against 192 doing it on a 50/50 shot but im only going to win that 0.02% so 98% bust rate , splitting this with another gambler or 2 helps extract more profits long terms and lower the variance. So alot of times my liability could be 10k on an event but I have offset some of this to other and they do similar in return ( its very complicated to explain all this sorry, but there is a reason that my returns are solid and not so erractic as you might expect)


    It's not as bad as that ! but can be a bit grim at times , some days are great you work an hour and make 4 figures and life is brilliant others you can't put a foot right and lose alot and have to do lots of admin and you wonder why you are doing this.
    I might be burnt out before 40 I don't know to be honest its hard work , i try get out and exercise a few times a week and get a break. The money is there to be made id like to make myself comfortable financially before I stop , ive spent alot of cash before I decided to start saving a bit , 100k a year savings is very realistic so I want to do the best i can with it , hence looking and reading on this site.

    Losing 50k , bookmakers go bust all the time , mostly you lose the money you had there , bookmakers palp bets , in the terms and conditions they say they can correct palpable errors a palpable error is a mispriced event , it should really be for stuff like a 10/1 bet priced up at 100/1 accidently you bet on it and it wins and your bet will be void and "palped" they refer to the terms relating to this. But you get bookmakers making questionable decisions sometimes you bet on something at 12/1 and they say it should be 9/1 thats not really palpable but its hard to argue these cases.

    Over the years ive lost 50k+ , the casinos can use irregular play clauses and any excuse possible to not pay , winning the money is only half the battle.
     
  20. DB74

    DB74 Frequent Poster

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