Central Bank of Ireland: Huge Deposit Movements in November 2010

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The Central Bank have just published their monthly stats for November 2010.

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Brian Lucey on Twitter has made some interesting observations:

  • Private sector deposits from non EU residents in Irish banks fell 3.5 billion EUR in November 2010 alone.
  • Private sector deposits in Irish banks from Irish residents fell 5 billion EUR in November 2010 alone.
  • Deposits in Irish banks from financial intermediaries, other than banks, fell 2.6 billion EUR in November 2010 alone.
  • Central Bank data suggests deposits are leaving Ireland at a high rate.
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Here's the Irish Times take on the data ...

Bank deposits fell 6.7% in November, data shows

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DEPOSITS continued to seep from banks last month, while lending to households and businesses declined again, according to the latest data from the Central Bank.
Deposits, traditionally a key source of bank funding, fell by 6.7 per cent in November, according to the Central Bank. Household deposits were 4.5 per cent lower, while business deposits dropped by 14.9 per cent.
Overall, the negative net monthly flow in deposits was €5.2 billion in November, bringing the three-month average to minus €2.1 billion and forcing banks to increase their reliance on funding from the European Central Bank.
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What would happen is this withdrawal trend of deposits from Irish banks continues and perhaps accelerated. Having watched the value of my bank shares gradually decline to nil and for some unknown reason felt powerless to take a decision and sell at some stage I am fearful am i witnessing a similar scenario slowly develop in regard to deposits.
 
dewdrop said:
What would happen is this withdrawal trend of deposits from Irish banks continues and perhaps accelerated.
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6.8% of deposits lost inside one month is already very fast paced.

If/when it continues:
1) The Irish banks will need yet more liquidity from the ECB (those who can still get repoed liquidity from the ECB)
2) The Irish banks will need yet more liquidity from the Central Bank of Ireland.
3) Ireland INC is increasingly on the hook for any liquidity that is not paid back by the Irish banks to the Central Bank of Ireland. The intra relationship between the state and the banks grows.
4) The banks will not meet the quarterly loans to deposits ratios set down by the IMF/ECB. The IMF will have to take action in this regard.
5) If the Central Bank of Ireland or ECB pulls liquidity support, however unlikely, then none of the 6 Irish banks could stand on their own two feet.
6) It is increases the likelyhood that some Irish banks will be sold to foreign banks/investors.
 
Lets get a bit of perspective here!

This situation has existed for some time now, which is why the bail out occurred and why the bail out includes such high provisions for supporting the banking system. So there really is nothing new in this!

I really don't see this kind of scaremongering to useful at this time...

Jim.
 
Jim2007 said:
scaremongering
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??

It's just the truth. If it's scary it's scary. Nothing we can do about that.

The more we talk about what's happening the better. We are at the funeral of the Celtic Tiger. Let's cry and let it all out. Then get over it and move on.
 
Jim2007 said:
This situation has existed for some time now,
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Not really. What happened in November 2010 is unprecedented.

Granted, there has been some deposit withdrawals going on in Anglo and INBS over the past 2.5 years, and large corporate deposit withdrawals in Q3 2010, but the level of retail deposit withdrawals in the entire Irish banking system in November 2010 has no precedent.

this kind of scaremongering
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The Irish Times/Brian Lucey/AAM and everyone else that is talking about the deposits exits are not scaremongering, we are just discuss the reality of the situation, using as much facts as possible. There is no point in pretending it is not happening.
 
Kai123 said:
Where are they moving their deposits to?

Kai.
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Mostly out of Irish banks to other non Irish banks operation in Ireland. Rabo seems to have been the main beneficiary. NIB, Nationwide UK and others have also seen their deposit base soar in recent times.

Increasing, out of the state into EUR accounts in Germany, Belgium and elsewhere.

For some, out of the state and out of EUR.
 
thier will be a slowdown of withdrawls once a new goverment is elected , as many people were heard to comment around the time of the panic in november , even cowen had went on live tv and assured deposit holders that thier money was safe , the majority of people wouldnt have believed him

the goverment hasnt an ounce of credibility and as such the people have lost all trust
 
farmerette said:
thier will be a slowdown of withdrawls once a new goverment is elected
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The new government are going to have their plate full with issues to address with the Irish banks. There is very little to think that they will bring additional confidence in the Irish banking system because they will have such big issues to deal with.

2011 will bring the closure of Anglo, potentially further losses at Anglo, the closure of INBS, yet more re-capitalisation at AIB, more recapitalisation at BOI, recapitalisation of IL&P and possible nationalisation of BOI. 2011 will see attempts by the ECB to end emergency liquidity, further NAMA financing issues and likely growth in mortgage arrears.

Also, the election campaign might be fought on the "separation of banks and the state". The uncertainty over what they may mean may lead, in itself, to a further loss in confidence.

The flip side is EBS may be sold to Cardinal Capital and the possible sale of BOI to a foreign bank. Foreign ownership is likely to add to confidence in EBS and BOI if this does happen.

FG/Labour will come into government with huge powers over the Irish banking sector. They will have some big decisions to make over the future of the Irish banks and some big "mine fields" to deal with.

If confidence is not rebuilt in Irish banks, which I think can only be done by foreign ownership, and also the segregation of sovereign debt and bank debt/liabilities, then I can only see a further flow of deposits out of Irish banks.
 
Is there any real interest out there in anyone taking over the irish banks (ebs aside) How about banks in China or India arn't they supposed to be looking for investments.....are there sharks in the water just waiting for the right moment to pounce:p
 
There have been constant rumours of foreign interest in the Irish banks. It would not surprise me if BOI is sold in 2011.

More on the deposit exits:

Indo: Depositors shift €5.1bn out of banks in one month

http://www.independent.ie/business/...ro51bn-out-of-banks-in-one-month-2479544.html

The main Irish banks have reported an enormous loss of deposits this year.

Bank of Ireland said it had lost €10bn in a six-week period over August and September, while AIB said it lost €12bn of deposits over the four-and-a-half months to mid-November.
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Consumers that are resident outside of the EU continued to take their deposits out of the Irish banks, withdrawing €2.3bn in total in the three months to the end of November.
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ZeroHedge: Deposit Exits Picks Up Pace

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/irish-ecb-borrowings-surge-countrys-bank-run-picks-speed

Following the publication of the monthly Central Bank of Ireland flow statistics for November, that the country's bank ended up borrowing another massive amount of capital from both Europe and the central bank itself, should not be surprising. After all it was in November that Ireland followed Greece into the insolvency abyss, a place where none other than Olli Rehn guarded the gates to feudal hell. However, one much more troubling factor is that the depositor run from Irish banks, a development which many have cited as potentially being the catalyst for the next major step down in the European house of cards tumble, is accelerating. From the report: "Deposits from the Irish resident private sector were 6.7 per cent lower on a year-to-year basis in November 2010. The annual rate of change in deposits from Irish households was minus 4.5 per cent, whereas deposits from Irish NFCs fell by 14.9 per cent on an annual basis in November." What this means simply said, is that as more deposit capital is withdrawn from Irish banks, the more they will need to rely on ECB and ICB funding, the more distressed they will be perceived as, the more capital will be withdrawn and so on... But that is a 2011 story.
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Reuters: Irish Bank have Deposit Outflows

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS..._smid=twtr-reuters_biz&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter

Deposits from the Irish resident private sector were 6.7 percent lower on a year-to-year basis in November, separate figures showed.

Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I), which Ireland effectively nationalised last week, said last month that it had lost 13 billion euros in deposits since the end of June.

Larger rival Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) shed 10 billion euros of deposits in the third quarter while bancassurer Irish Life & Permanent (IPM.I) said it had suffered a 600 million outflow in the same period.

Some 35 billion euros of the 85 billion euro bailout will be channelled to the country's banks. Around 10 billion euros will be used for immediate capital injections, and a further 25 billion be kept as a back-up in case further injections are needed.
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NAMA Wine Lake: 2011 Predictions

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/nama-in-2011-–-ten-predictions/

However, more bank black holes might in themselves be rendered insignificant by the emerging spectre of a full-scale bank run. Corporate deposits have been fleeing out the door in recent months. And it is clear that the IMF and EU bailout has not put a stop to the flight. Despite Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan’s assertions that as an island we will not see deposit flight, how long will it be before there are queues outside the six Irish banks to withdraw nearly €100bn of personal deposits and place the spondoolicks under the mattress or in non-Irish financial institutions? And what happens if the ECB stops shoring up the flight of deposits? And how much longer can we continue with the miracle that is the Central Bank of Ireland creating funding (backed by a State guarantee, natch) to replace fleeing deposits?
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CiaranT said:
The new government are going to have their plate full with issues to address with the Irish banks. There is very little to think that they will bring additional confidence in the Irish banking system because they will have such big issues to deal with.

2011 will bring the closure of Anglo, potentially further losses at Anglo, the closure of INBS, yet more re-capitalisation at AIB, more recapitalisation at BOI, recapitalisation of IL&P and possible nationalisation of BOI. 2011 will see attempts by the ECB to end emergency liquidity, further NAMA financing issues and likely growth in mortgage arrears.

Also, the election campaign might be fought on the "separation of banks and the state". The uncertainty over what they may mean may lead, in itself, to a further loss in confidence.

The flip side is EBS may be sold to Cardinal Capital and the possible sale of BOI to a foreign bank. Foreign ownership is likely to add to confidence in EBS and BOI if this does happen.

FG/Labour will come into government with huge powers over the Irish banking sector. They will have some big decisions to make over the future of the Irish banks and some big "mine fields" to deal with.

If confidence is not rebuilt in Irish banks, which I think can only be done by foreign ownership, and also the segregation of sovereign debt and bank debt/liabilities, then I can only see a further flow of deposits out of Irish banks.
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surely one of the reasons depositers were withdrawing thier savings in such a frenzy was down to thier lack of trust in the present goverment , a new goverment will bring a relativley fresh start and besides , eventually , people will have to start putting money back in irish banks if we are to have any kind of a future
 
I hate FF, but do most people really think FG will do a better job? They've been absolutely useless in opposition so I can't see them doing much better in power.
 
CiaranT said:
There have been constant rumours of foreign interest in the Irish banks. It would not surprise me if BOI is sold in 2011.
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Given that most viable banks are going to have to stop paying dividends and conserve capital for the next few years in order to reach Basel III Tier 1 capital requirements, it is hard to see how any CEO could justify taking on an Irish bank to his shareholders. Let alone come up with the capital that would be required to bring BOI into line with Basel III requirements, from it's current state.

I expect in the end, the entire banking sector will have to be restructured by the government of the day, as it is very hard to see anything of value remaining at this stage.

Jim.
 
farmerette said:
surely one of the reasons depositers were withdrawing thier savings in such a frenzy was down to thier lack of trust in the present goverment , a new goverment will bring a relativley fresh start and besides , eventually , people will have to start putting money back in irish banks if we are to have any kind of a future
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To answer your question, we need to think about why we have had and have massive deposit exits.

1) Irish banks been downgraded, then downgraded again, then again. Corporate depositor's, which make a huge portion of banks deposits either cannot have their money in junk rated banks or their compliance departments will not let them.
Will a new government change this? No.

2) A lot of hedge funds have pulled money out of Irish banks. Again, this is down to credit ratings and the perceived risk of Ireland INC.
Will a new government change this? No.

3) Some money have been pulled out of NTMA/An Post savings due to fear over the massive Irish national debt and our ability to pay back the national debt. People don't want their savings invested in the Irish national debt.
Will a new government change this? No, the national debt is only going to get worse and default is a very real possibility.

4) People are pulling money out of the EUR because of fear over what will happen to the EUR. There is a growing school of thought that the EUR will fall apart and Ireland will convert to 'An Punt Nua'.
Will a new government change this? No. Portugal, Spain and Belgium will decide this for the new government.

5) Money is been pulled out of the Irish banks because of the growing losses at Irish banks and fears over their solvency.
Will a new government change this? No. Mortgage arrears etc etc are out of the hands of the new government.

6) Recently there is a growing fears over what will happen when the ECB pulls emergency liquidity from the Irish banks? Can they survive without emergency liquidity backing up the deposit exits?
Will a new government change this? No. The ECB will make this decision themselves in the coming weeks.

Jim2007 said:
Given that most viable banks are going to have to stop paying dividends and conserve capital for the next few years in order to reach Basel III Tier 1 capital requirements, it is hard to see how any CEO could justify taking on an Irish bank to his shareholders. Let alone come up with the capital that would be required to bring BOI into line with Basel III requirements, from it's current state.
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Who said a bank will buy BOI? Who said they will have to pay anything to acquire BOI?

I would guess that a private equity firm will buy BOI for a nominal sum of 1 EUR for their entire Irish operation backed by huge government guarantees. Just a guess.
 
A very interesting point has been made on thepropertypin.com about the Central Bank of Ireland stats. They only show money leaving the country, the stats do not include those that are moving money out of one Irish bank (AIB etc) and into another Irish based bank (Rabo etc).

Hence, these stats are only the tip of the iceberg of what has happened to deposits in November.

From the Central Bank of Ireland:

The reporting population which is covered in these tables are all credit institutions resident in Ireland. Credit institutions, as defined in Community Law, are undertakings whose business is to receive deposits or other repayable funds from the public and to grant credits for their own account and/or issue means of payment in the form of electronic money. In the Irish case, resident credit institutions comprise licensed banks, building societies and, since January 2009, credit unions as regulated by the Registrar of Credit Unions. A resident office means an office or branch of the reporting institution which is located in ‘the State’ (the Republic of Ireland). These are: institutions incorporated and located in the Republic of Ireland, including subsidiaries of parent companies located outside the Republic of Ireland; and branches of institutions that have their head office outside the Republic of Ireland. Reporting institutions report the data in respect of their resident offices only.
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Even CNN are taking about the Irish deposit flight now, or be a slightly sensational take on the major issues at hand ...

CNN: The Irish Deposit Flight



The flight from Irish banks has been most pronounced among foreigners, who presumably are less attached to their bailed-out bankers and can easily find other banks that, at least for the moment, appear less apt to go out of business.

Some 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of overseas deposits fled the country in November alone, according to the Central Bank of Ireland. The level of foreign deposits has plunged 28% in the past year and is down 42% from its bubbly peak.

But don't blame just the foreigners. Domestic deposits tumbled by 6.3 billion euros in November, in their steepest decline since August 2009.

All told, the Irish banking system's deposit base has contracted by 15% over the past year -- which isn't making it any easier for taxpayers to keep the deeply troubled banking sector afloat.

Meanwhile, the aid the Irish banks took from the eurosystem more than doubled over the past year, to 97 billion euros from 45 billion in November 2009.

The flight of deposits from troubled Irish banks is an unhappy irony because Ireland was lauded in some quarters in 2008 when it became the first state to guarantee bank deposits. That decision led to a short-lived surge of funds into the Irish banks -- not that the money stuck around for long. Since the late 2008 peak, more than 100 billion euros of overseas deposits have left the Irish banking system.
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Again, CNN also miss the point that the ICB stats only show deposits leaving the country. A lot more than 6.3 billion left the 6 Irish banks for foreign Irish based banks in November 2010. The year end financial results for the banks will paint a clearer picture as to what is really going on with deposits.
 
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