GIven that the epicenter was first in China then Europe and the USA, if this moves to the poorer countries around the world we will see far worse death rates than we see now.
Countries with no real public healthcare system, with cities without modern sewage systems and very cramped living conditions could see very high contagion rates. This is a very interesting article in the context of this thread.
Yes, that's highlighted in the linked article.Very high contagion rates yes, but will it translate into the death rates of western countries, maybe not.
Being clinical about it, from a demographic perspective, in such conditions where other infections etc are rampant, there may not be such large % of the population in vulnerable groups.
I'm following the FT analysis which also tracks Africa and Latin America. My gut feeling is that the global death tally could be massive if it becomes widespread in some of the large cities in both - high density populations with less infrastructure than Europe or US.
To put it in context, New York has 8.5 million people. Cairo and Lagos have about 18 million. Kinshasa and Jo'burg about 13 million. Mexico and Sao Paulo have >20 million. Rio, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Lima - all larger than NY
(all numbers approximate - I realise numbers change depending on whether you look at core or hinterland. Point stands I think)