Key Post Why speculation about Irish house prices is banned

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Astonishingly, this post has now garnered 2,151 views. The lack of logic in the now banned discussion seems set to duplicate itself here. By way of example only:

"If this is an issue of moderation, there is a simple solution. A forum or thread devoted to it. You would be free to delete anyone who posts off that reservation. Anyone who is frightened by the discussion can stay away."

Certainly, that is one simple solution. Here's another: 'Speculation about Irish House Prices is Banned'


"You need to think very carefully about this. There are people who come here looking to spend a LOT of borrowed money in an asset class that may or may not be horrendously overvalued. But this crucial peice of discussion is being withheld from them."

You can have that discussion just about anywhere else. Nothing is being "withheld". AAM is simply not the venue.

To use the US parlance, enough already: time I think to lock this thread and to add that speculation about Irish house prices is banned and so is discussion of the ban
 
I don't think this particular thread has got to the stage that it warrants either being locked or a ban on discussion of the ban, but when I read something as OTT as this...

I have been trying to sell my apartment for a number of months now and I think a little more openness on the issue can only make the hardship easier.
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...from someone who has only been an AAM member for 6 or 7 weeks, I really wonder if AAM is in a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" position on this issue.
 
MOB said:
Astonishingly, this post has now garnered 2,151 views. The lack of logic in the now banned discussion seems set to duplicate itself here. By way of example only:
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Why would that in itself be a reason to continue the ban? If anything a thread that has garnered 2,151 views shows there is significant interest in the subject.

MOB said:
You can have that discussion just about anywhere else. Nothing is being
AAM is simply not the venue.
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But surely house prices are a financial issue and as such why AAM as a financial discussion forum is not the venue for the discussion.
 

What's that meant to mean?

If you had ever been in a situation where you need to sell up a small apartment in order to move on with your live (its pretty difficult to start a family in an apartment!) you would know the feeling!

I don't think I'm being over the top in any way!
 

I gathered that from your previous post. I really wonder though are you exaggerating the likely benefit to you from a discussion of property prices on AAM. By its very nature, all such a discussion would yield would be expression of opinion and counter-opinion on this topic. That and nothing more.

I'm not sure that there would be anything in particular that one could expect to learn from such a discussion, any more than one can get for example in the daily & Sunday newspapers, or a discussion on Liveline.
 
Thomas22, if you are having trouble selling your apartment you should reduce your asking price. Discussing it won't help selling it.
 

If I can gather all the financial knowledge I need from Sunday newspapers, or a discussion on Liveline. Then why bother having a financial discussion forum in the first place?

I would much rather see all the viewpoints for and against the likelihood of a continued boom. Rather than reading a single view from a journalist.

This type of attitude on a discussion forum beggars belief!
 
Bronte said:
Thomas22, if you are having trouble selling your apartment you should reduce your asking price. Discussing it won't help selling it.
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That doesn't help me as I've already done it. If I reduce the price any further I'll be in negative equity with very little chance of buying anywhere that I can raise a family.

I need to know whether I should cut my losses now or hold out. And to know that I need to know whether prices will stabilize or fall.
 
IMHO, one of the biggest problems with regard to the Irish Property Market is the lack of primary data.

Most of the data gathered and presented is secondary data. Examples include, our housing price index coming from estimated valuations that a leading mortage provider (Permanent TSB) compiles, our house completions figure coming form Electricity Supply Board connections, our house starts coming from insurance bond registrations (Premier and Homebond). The data also tends to have considerable lag (i.e. time delay from when it relates to to when it is published).

We completely lack real transparent data on the volume or price of property sales and rentals as would be availbale to varying degrees in other markets such as the UK and US.

The unfortunate thing about all this is that the data and statistics that are presented are very much open to interpretation. They're quite subjective. Most of the data in Ireland is presented to us by various vested interests such as Estate Agents and Mortgage Providers. Added to this the standard of journalism in the main stream media such as the broadsheets and national broadcasters seems to have dropped hugely in standard over the last decade. Press releases by various banks and estate agents are printed in near enitrety with little or no analysis, questioning or presentation of opposing views. This has meant public perception of the property market has remained very one sided.

The only way for peoples eyes to be opened is through unbiased new media outlets such as AAM. While thepropertypin.com is a good site, it's really a site for discussing the bearish and more negative viewpoints on the Irish Property Market. It's also quite technical in nature and positioned at people who have a good economic and financial understanding. It's certainly not a site for the average joe public to receive help on selling or buying their little pad.

The main stream media has turned unquestionably bearish on the future of the Irish Property Market and the Irish Economy. Irish shares, particuarly the banking and construciton relates ones, have taken a huge battering over the last 3-6 months. The data released is getting worse week on week. It takes up to a year for YOY (year on year) figures to reflect the true turning of a market, indicated very well by the Housing Index only turning negative YOY last month.

Things are very rocky out there. At circa €400k for the average Dublin house and circa €300k for the average house nationally there is huge risk being place on people. AAM owes it to these people to make sure they are entering the buying or selling process well informed of the state of play. Burying heads in the sand is just not an option.
 
While I understand the reason for the ban, i.e. too much emotion leading to loads of heat and not a lot of light, I do think that it is regrettable as for most people their home is their biggest purchase and advice on other ways of saving money etc is minor in compression.
The question is can the moderators maintain a thread that will draw massive comment at the high standard that nearly all other threads are kept at. That question can only be answered by the moderators. Given that they are all volunteers I don't think their position on this topic is unreasonable. It's regretful but necessarily pragmatic.
 
reply to bronte,

So you are one of the 4 million property experts in this country - you say reduce your price without evening knowing the property - how do you know Thomas22 hasn't already reduced his price - just by reducing price doesn't make it easier to sell. I can clearly see from that last few postings why speculation is banned - we have far to many knowledgable people in Ireland who are property experts.
 
I haven't claimed to be an expert, but I know this, there is a price at which property will always sell - the price the purchaser is willing to pay.

Thomas22, I'm very sorry that you are facing into negative equity. It is not a nice place to be. Absolutely nobody can tell you how prices will go. You have to decide whether to take the hit or not. To say anything further would be for me to speculate which I will not do as it is banned.
 

I live in London and own my house here. (Well own it 50:50 with my building society at present valuation). I'm trying to decide whether selling to rent is the way to go right now or if there is any possibility of further rises in my particular market. Without discussions on the future of house prices on moneysavingexpert.com I'd be going out of my mind.Sure there are a number of sites which discuss the possible UK house price crash and I look at them all but what I like about MSE is that there is a better balance. People who frequent crash sites tend to be either incredibly bearish or incredibly bullish people who enjoy bear-baiting. General financial sites that are supposed to have no agenda can have a better range of opinions and people trying to make up their mind. Of course you get all the raging bulls and bears there too and discussions can get heated and insults are exchanged and sometimes the same things are said over and over. But it is a resource that I would hate to be without.It is extremely disappointing that Irish people don't have this option.
 
Brendan said:
Another reason is the extent of moderation required. Askaboutmoney has a reputation for sensible, well mannered and informative posts. When people start speculating on house prices, they go mad. The mods simply don't have time for this.
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I am a moderator on www.globalhousepricecrash.com , despite the name there is probably a tendency towards bullish arguments on the main (UK) board. All points of view are tolerated with hardly any moderation necessary. I don't see why the same could not apply here, for the Irish market, once the discussion had settled down.
 
Blazes - the game's up. Ferguson & Associates funds Askaboutmoney to the tune of €15,000 per month, but with two conditions: -

(1) No negative thoughts about property values (particularly in Ratoath) can be entertained.

(2) No-one is permitted to argue with me.

 
But Liam - You are now in breach of our non-disclosure agreement, so I don't have to take that money from you ever again.

Brendan
 
Brendan said:
But Liam - You are now in breach of our non-disclosure agreement, so I don't have to take that money from you ever again.

Brendan
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Brendan I think most people know that the ban has nothing to do with payments from vested interests. But just don't see the logic in the ban.
 


Seems to be a bit of a contradiction in what you say - first you say that you know there is a price at which a property will always sell - the price the purchaser is willing to pay - then you go on to say that nobody can tell how prices will go - yet you suggested to Thomas22 to reduce his price. Unless people really do know the market and know what they are talking about - instead of trying to talk down the market, it ain't very helpful to tell someone to reduce their price into negative equity.
 
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