Why does Ireland seem to be doing better than the UK?

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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A good article here
www.irishtimes.com

Coronavirus: Why is the Irish death rate lower than the UK’s?

The difference may be due to factors other than the introduction of measures to delay spread
www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com

The death rates per 100,000 are twice as high in the UK.

It's too early to say, but there are some of the factors:

1) We stopped mass gatherings such as the St Patrick's Day Parade while they went ahead with Cheltenham.
2) There is more inward travel to the UK, so they got their first case earlier -“With doubling times of every 2-3 days, even a later introduction of the first infections by a week can have a very large effect.” he added. –
3) So the UK has more cases and therefore more deaths
4) 83% of the UK population live in urban areas, compared to 63% in Ireland
5) 18% of the UK population is over 65 compared to 13% in Ireland
6) The UK has a higher proportion of Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities, who are at higher risk.

No mention of BCG which I think was much more prevalent in Ireland.

Brendan
 
It was said on the news tonight that the figures from N. Ireland for Covid 19 deaths did not include nursing home deaths whereas the RoI figures do. I don't know if it's the same across the UK but if it was it would indicate the UK figures are even higher.
 
I've yet to see any evidence that the three major events often cited - Cheltenham, the Liverpool game and the Stereophonics gig - have contributed significantly to the UK's C-19 rates.
And people forget the UK had stay at home orders in place four days before Ireland.
But the other factors mentioned in the article are very significant as well as population density which is much lighter here ( 186 per sq mile ) compared with the UK ( 671 per sq mile overall with England being even higher ).
In fact comparisons between the two countries are like comparing apples with pears - if we compared Ireland with somewhere slightly more similar such as New Zealand Ireland doesn't fare as well.
Even the timing of the comparison is pointless - let's wait until it's all over and the research is in before drawing definitive conclusions.
 
Population density, public transport usage was a big part. However I also can't help but think that the "we're british" attitude also contributed, certainly after speaking to a lot of UK colleagues over the last month on calls, it took them far longer to realise this was serious then it did for us to do so..
 
Times article here discussing some of the possibilities. Coverage in the BBC and elsewhere over the last couple of days confirm that that UK numbers do not include nursing home data.
 
Peanuts20 said:
Population density, public transport usage was a big part. However I also can't help but think that the "we're british" attitude also contributed, certainly after speaking to a lot of UK colleagues over the last month on calls, it took them far longer to realise this was serious then it did for us to do so..
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This is fertile Fintan O'Toole territory who only last week linked C-19 to Brexit.
I doubt medical and scientific experts in the UK took it any less seriously than here in Ireland because they once had an empire.
Anecdotal evidence like this really is useless because I could point to many Irish people I know who had a similar relaxed attitude at the beginning.
It's worth remembering the UK introduced stay at home orders four days before Ireland.
Anyway,early days yet.Let's see how the figures compare in three months time.
 
Getting back on topic - it could simply be linked into the testing strategies. The initial plan here was that anyone showing cold/flu-like symptoms should go for testing. Then that was tightened to only if you had significant fever. How does the rate of positive tests here compare to the UK?

Given the change to the testing strategy, one thing you can be sure of is that there is significant under-reporting of the number of infected people.
 
Folks

Please do not respond to off topic comments.

You are wasting your time, and more importantly, mine.

Brendan
 
In Northern Italy ,in parts of Spain and the UK population density means apartment blocks and high rise ones too. Shared facilities,such as lifts ,common access and egress,close proximity in all these and in corridors must increase risk of infection.
It was notable last night on TV3 a doctor (an Epidemiologist I think) stated that immigrant groups such as Roma and Brazilians living in the centre of Dublin have some of the highest rates of infection.He said people are living on top of one another in city centre accomodation and inferred this was a reason it was the worst cluster in the State.
So perhaps population density and apartment blocks in the UK are where the biggest clusters are.
 
Half our deaths are in care/nursing homes. The UK is not reporting those figures. What is the real number of deaths in the UK?
 
Purple said:
Half our deaths are in care/nursing homes. The UK is not reporting those figures. What is the real number of deaths in the UK?
Click to expand...

There was an interesting analysis earlier this week in the UK. The reported deaths overall in the UK jumped about 6k above the expected level in the first couple of weeks in March (I think). They compared to the Covid reported deaths at the same time and it looked something like 3.5k Covid reported deaths with about 2.5k unexpected increase not attributed. So possibly about the same as us which, if true, would mean the actual death rate to date would be >20k
 
Statistics can be used in different ways.
As this graph by Sky's Ed Conway shows in per capita terms Ireland's death rate is worse than the USA's and not far off the UK's but then the UK figures don't include nusery and care home deaths.
The official reason for these deaths not being included immediately in the daily figures is that they take longer to gather as stats are collated from coroners' offices etc.
 
Wahaay said:
Statistics can be used in different ways.
As this graph by Sky's Ed Conway shows in per capita terms Ireland's death rate is worse than the USA's and not far off the UK's but then the UK figures don't include nusery and care home deaths.
The official reason for these deaths not being included immediately in the daily figures is that they take longer to gather as stats are collated from coroners' offices etc.
Click to expand...

Again, raw data is difficult. Rate per capita analysis is misleading. It will, at least initially, skew results to show lower population countries with a higher rating. The reason being that the total population is irrelevant in the initial stages because the absolute numbers in a city like Dublin will be similar to any other city. It is only as the spread goes into the wider population that the per capita analysis becomes clearer.

The data analysis guy from the FT has a whole topic why they don't spend a lot of time on per capita rates.
 
Our own death rate is also a little sceptical due to lack of testing we are now recording 155 heart attack deaths per day 100 above normal
 
In simple terms, we seem to be doing better than the UK because no country in the world seems to be doing worse. Predictions indicate that true figures for the UK will be worse than Italy's or the US's. True infection and death rates aren't available for the UK because deaths and infections outside hospitals are not being included in the overall figures.

So why the comparison with the worst in class? Is it because the true figures for Ireland are worse than those being released at daily PR fiestas? Rumours, and I stress rumours, of causes of death being falsified, infection rates in care homes being hidden even from families of infected residents, the HSE's on-going refusal to engage with possible producers of PPE and other useful kit while staff report shortages and far from ideal practices. Yesterday too may news outlets were carrying too many similar stories for it to be coincidence.

If we believe we are at war with this virus, then I think we need to accept Churchill's statement that the first victim of war is truth. He'd have known.
 
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BBC 1 news quoting newspaper sources said this morning that the care-home deaths many total as many as 7,500 lives lost.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
That is a really good way of looking at it.

So is there a league table of countries to assess how well they are doing?
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Ok first off there are other countries doing worse than the UK in pretty much any measurable category. This is also to be taken with a mountain of salt as the stats from pretty much anywhere are being updated and revised all the time. This is an unprecedented scenario which there is no rule book for. In fact Belgium has the worst death rate per head of population once you ignore the countries with very small populations which skew results and very few people are aware of this.
Here is a link to a site which is showing the most comprehensive overview of the figures world wide by country and by death, infection, recovery and test rates among others.

www.worldometers.info

COVID Live Update: 142,072,345 Cases and 3,034,587 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
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