Why are polls taken so seriously?

C

Ceist Beag

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Last night and this morning the headlines seem to be all about the latest MRBI poll. This poll is based on a survey of 1000 people around the country ... so roughly a snapshot of 0.05% of the total who voted in the last election! So why on earth are RTE and the media acting as if this poll is in anyway representative of the view of the electorate? Surely such a small percentage of the voters can't be taken as having any real representation of the views of the people?
 
You need to read up on Margin of Error. You don't need a big sample size to get an accurate result if you do your polling correctly. The margin of error on the 27% support for FF on a sample size of 1000 will be 1.4%
 
Yikes, that looks a bit too mathematical for my brain so I think I'll leave it to those that understand better! Thanks for the link diarmuidc
 
Ceist Beag said:
Last night and this morning the headlines seem to be all about the latest MRBI poll. This poll is based on a survey of 1000 people around the country ... so roughly a snapshot of 0.05% of the total who voted in the last election! So why on earth are RTE and the media acting as if this poll is in anyway representative of the view of the electorate? Surely such a small percentage of the voters can't be taken as having any real representation of the views of the people?
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Were the 0.05% endowed with "mature recollection":)
 
Assuming the 27% support is correct (and it does sound about right) what difference does it make.

The government will keep giving the line about making unpopular choices for the good of the country. This will last for today and maybe tomorrow. Then they will ignore it and it will go away.

Where is the power to force an election going to come from? I would love to see the plans of FG and FF based on the 'changed economic climate' and choose between the two based on this. The last election battle was fought on the assumption that we would continue to have loads of money and the slight difference between the parties was how we were going to spend it.

Also, it would give me a chance to actually vote for someone to be Taoiseach and not have someone inherit the office!!
 
QED said:
The government will keep giving the line about making unpopular choices for the good of the country. This will last for today and maybe tomorrow. Then they will ignore it and it will go away.
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Well if I felt that they were making important but unpopular cuts then I would hope that they would ignore the polls. Everyone talks about making tough cuts but the bigger the cuts (which they have to be with the budget shortfall we have) the bigger the falls in the polls.

However I don't think we need to fear that scenario. FF are no longer capable of making hard decisions especially when Kenny ruled out a return to the "Tallaght Strategy" days
 
If the country is going to be goverened by openion polls and vested interests then it is doomed.

Banks will need re-capitalisation and public sector needs reform - openion polls are just a snap shot on a given day.
 
diarmuidc said:
Well if I felt that they were making important but unpopular cuts then I would hope that they would ignore the polls.
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If they were making important but unpopular cuts then they wouldn't have to ignore the polls, the polls would be in their favour. The polls are merely reflecting the alarm that is out there since the incompetence of the Budget undermined the govt's credibilty.
 
ubiquitous said:
If they were making important but unpopular cuts then they wouldn't have to ignore the polls, the polls would be in their favour.
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I don't agree. It's pretty easy to paint cuts in education, health and welfare (80% of the budget) into "hurting the vulnerable" and that's what the opposition and media will do, and public opinion will follow quickly behind.
 
xavier said:
It is already being governed by one of them....
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Exactly. Governments dont do necessarily whats right or best for the country, normally whats most popular! FF are not only making unpopular decisions, they are making wrong ones!

And on Polls, 99% of polls can be constructed to give you the answer you want (as opposed to impartial answers). I reckon 9 out of 10 cats agree with this statement ! ! ;)
 
Complainer said:
And of course, Governments act in this way, because voters vote in this way.
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Couldnt agree more but this is a point that most people dont want to understand (simply cause it puts the responsibility back on us all as opposed to having somebody or party to blame!).
 
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