Who will form the next Irish Government ?

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When we finallly come around to getting the General Election that everyone (probably even those who have never voted) want who do you think will form the next government ?

From all the talk in the media it is a foregone conclusion that Labour and FG will do the deal. However, I'm not so sure and here's why.

1: EG is the most popular man in country (and he knows it)
2: FF are a bunch of wasters who have ruined the country (and they know this is the interpretation the people have of them ...right now)
3: FG have been sitting waiting, waiting, waiting.....zzzz etc. now to get into power.
4: Others to consider are SF, Greens (who I think are totally screwed), and independents.

Labour however (and particularly EG) have a big question to ask themselves. What good is going into coalition with FG for EG ?Look at it from his point of view - he knows he's most popular man - but what good is it. What ministerial position will he end up in with FG ? Someone said Foreign Affairs - is that where he wants to be ?

Or is he more ambitious - will he become the first ever leader of this countrys Labour led coalition. I believe this is what he ultimately wants. So would they look to form an alternative coalition again - with FF and SF so that EG and JB can be the two pivotal leaders in power.
Why would FF go in with Labour?

1: They have been bedfellows in power b4
2: They see it as being back in power with the chance to redeem themselves (and if it all goes wrong then blame the senior partners !!)
3: It would suit FF down to the gound to see FG sitting on the sideline again like a bunch of dumbos scratching their heads at what went wrong.

I know it depends on the numbers but its not out of the realm of possibility....
 
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the Bundestag.
 
GoMayoGo said:
When we finallly come around to getting the General Election that everyone (probably even those who have never voted) want who do you think will form the next government ?

From all the talk in the media it is a foregone conclusion that Labour and FG will do the deal. However, I'm not so sure and here's why.

1: EG is the most popular man in country (and he knows it)
2: FF are a bunch of wasters who have ruined the country (and they know this is the interpretation the people have of them ...right now)
3: FG have been sitting waiting, waiting, waiting.....zzzz etc. now to get into power.
4: Others to consider are SF, Greens (who I think are totally screwed), and independents.

Labour however (and particularly EG) have a big question to ask themselves. What good is going into coalition with FG for EG ?Look at it from his point of view - he knows he's most popular man - but what good is it. What ministerial position will he end up in with FG ? Someone said Foreign Affairs - is that where he wants to be ?

Or is he more ambitious - will he become the first ever leader of this countrys Labour led coalition. I believe this is what he ultimately wants. So would they look to form an alternative coalition again - with FF and SF so that EG and JB can be the two pivotal leaders in power.
Why would FF go in with Labour?

1: They have been bedfellows in power b4
2: They see it as being back in power with the chance to redeem themselves (and if it all goes wrong then blame the senior partners !!)
3: It would suit FF down to the gound to see FG sitting on the sideline again like a bunch of dumbos scratching their heads at what went wrong.

I know it depends on the numbers but its not out of the realm of possibility....
Click to expand...


Only if he gets more seats than FF (which he should) and more than FG (unlikely).
Labour do not have a history of running two candidates in a constituancy and a lot will depend how they manage the votes. Likewise there are rural constituancies where Labour will not get a look in.
The coming By-Election in Donegal SW is being contested by Frank McBrearty for the Labour party. Yes, Gilmore is the most popular leader in the country but that will not seep down to votes for McBrearty.

Never underestimate the Fianna Fail core vote. I am hoping that they will be annihilated in the next election but FF will get more votes than McBrearty in Donegal.

I posted the same question in about 7 or 8 different discussion forums asking will people vote FF in the next election. I was shocked at the responses from people who said they will vote for "personality" rather than party and a large number of people said the local FF TD was "extremely hard working".

Regardless of what you think of Gilmore (no policies/soundbites), he is the most popular leader in the country but I cannot see that transpiring into votes in Tipp South/Kerry South/Cork South West etc...
 
Teatime said:
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the Bundestag.
Click to expand...

Hahaha, very witty. Actually it would be the Free Democratic Party (FPD) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Back on topic though, I think it will not make any bit of a difference which party gets in, as the mess is just too deep to be cleared up by any career politician.
 
I shudder when I think of Joan Burton in government.

Actually, I shudder when I think of Joan Burton.
 
Just saw M Noonan on T.V.
He basically said they are not going to bring down the government over the budget, so FF are going to get very unpopular with all the cuts.
On the frontline programme last night with Pat Kenny,whilst all the panel agreed with the 6 billion cuts,...it was very revealing that each interest group in the audience was adamant that there should be no cuts to the likes of old age pensions, child benefit and frontline services.There is going to be a lot of squealing ahead but I doubt RTE and the FF politicians will face that type of audience AFTER the budget cuts are announced.
 
As an outsider from NI who has come into your country in the last decade, I don't really see any difference in the political parties at all.

FG would have done what FF did during the last decade. Will they perform miracles and save the country should they get in? Can't see any real changes happening.

All the parties know that the pain has to be taken, and whoever is in power will not be popular.

But what I would like to see the Gov in power do is really press to have prosecutions and convictions brought against those who brought the country down. This is something that would make the pain bearable for the rest of us who didn't really do anything too wrong but who will pay now. Try to dispel the belief that the fat cats look after each other and that there are some scruples in the political system here.

If any single party says they will try to do this, they have my vote. Guaranteed.
 
GoMayoGo said:
When we finallly come around to getting the General Election that everyone (probably even those who have never voted) want who do you think will form the next government ?
Click to expand...
A FG led FG/Labour coalition looks nailed on to me. go 1/5.
 
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