Who will form the next government?

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Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Here is the complete list from Boylesports
4251

How many of these combinations are feasible? (Using Boylesports predictions for the numbers of seats for each party)

FF/FG (including FF minority , FG Minority) : c. 95 seats

FF/SF c. 78 seats - so it's possible

Though I suppose if a FF minority is possible, then all other variations involving FF are possible as well.

Almost impossible to call.

18/1 on FG /FF seems like good odds. I don't expect it, but it would be the easiest to form and the most stable.

Brendan
 
FF/FG on paper look stable,far from it
Can you imagine FF and SF main opposition party, you forgetting Enda offered ff 50% of cabinet positions and the reason the turned it down was because SF would become the main opposition party, looks like they are going to be stronger this time when all the fragmented votes get counted,

SF and FG along with Michael Martin have made sure FF will be less transfer friendly this time,
 
Interesting betting odds table there from Boyle Sports. FF/SF partnership @ 5/1 fav -Wow!

I've heard Michéal Martin that under no circumstances will he allow SF to join FF in partnership. Is there subterfuge suggesting that Mr Martin will be fired before formation of SF/FF?

The main event (the election itself) is too early to call. According to Leo Varadkar this is only the start of the 2nd half in a hurling match. I bet this day fortnight we'll look at the election result and wonder why we didn't take the betting odds on offer.
 
Ceist Beag said:
Because you would be taking quite the risk in betting on a horse knowing that the jockey could jump across to a horse he suddenly fancies more coming up the home straight, that's why!
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Probably the most truthful post on this subject.
 
Leper said:
I bet this day fortnight we'll look at the election result and wonder why we didn't take the betting odds on offer.
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Which particular odds?

But you are right, it will all seem so obvious in retrospect.

Assuming FF has most seats but not enough to form a coalition with the others excluding Sinn Féin.

Then the options are

1) A FF minority government with FG support
2) FF and FG coalition
3) FF and Sinn Féin

I don't expect a FF/FG coalition, but 18/1 looks like big odds.
 
I tried to back €200 on FF/FG but they set a maximum bet of €50!

Not sure if I will bother with Paddy Power at 16/1

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Update - I tried to put €200 on with Paddy Power and they restricted me to €29.50

Brendan
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These markets are marketing gimmicks. I spotted first day FF over 50 seats at 5/6 was a steal but I knew from past experience they would limit how much you could bet, so no regrets at missing it.
I had a chance last night to speak on the doorstep, as they say. It was FG canvassing. I said I thought Leo was going soft on the IRA and that Michael was the safer bet in that regard. But Leper is right, if FF/SF have the numbers the likes of O'Cuiv could oust Michael and invite the IRA into government :mad:
 
Agree with Purple, from day 1 a swap between FF and FG looked the most likely outcome here. That said, SF have gained more momentum as the days go by than I thought they might and they could prove a major thorn in the side when it comes to forming the next government.
At this stage I wouldn't be surprised if we're still awaiting a goverment to be formed by St Patrick's day. Anyone think it might be after Easter?
 
Ceist Beag said:
Agree with Purple, from day 1 a swap between FF and FG looked the most likely outcome here. That said, SF have gained more momentum as the days go by than I thought they might and they could prove a major thorn in the side when it comes to forming the next government.
At this stage I wouldn't be surprised if we're still awaiting a goverment to be formed by St Patrick's day. Anyone think it might be after Easter?
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Brexit has FF/FG snookered , I Can imagine Mary Lou holding there feet to the fire Reminding them what they said about SF up North,
The next FF not so sure, There is no one really happy transfers are going to splinter in all directions,
All party leaders are putting on a good show ,I might not agree with most of them ,They will canceling one another out when it comes to transfers,
The smaller party leaders will cross people mind in the polling boot like never before,
 
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Purple said:
The thing is that when dealing with the Shinners that's not a metaphor!
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Do you really think Leo cares what you or I think when it comes to SF after the election if the Numbers stack up,
SF are keeping the next dance for FG by the look of things,
 
josh8267 said:
Do you really think Leo cares what you or I think when it comes to SF after the election if the Numbers stack up,
SF are keeping the next dance for FG by the look of things,
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Leo might not as he probably has a European escape route but anyone in FG who wants to be electable for the next generation should.
 
I see Leo and Michael are trying to tar one another with the same brush about SF, If they don't stop soon SF will rise further in the polls and FF/FG % will both drop,
They are very silly to be attacking one another about SF, Cant believe what I am hearing on the news pure madness on there part,
Mary showed them a hint of an ankle what has come over them,
What do other posters think ,
 
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The bickering between the two main centre left parties is giving the far left crazies in SF a free ride .
 
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