Here is a good source of such information (compiled from EIA reports):
http://omrpublic.iea.org/World/Wb_all.pdf
Certainly a lot tighter than 1.5 million barrels a day at the moment. Although I think forecasted 2007 demand will be revised down from 85.7 to closer to 83 mbpd in line with GDP revisions in the US.
Both demand and supply are growing. It's just a question of which is growing faster. Also I do not see why refinery problems (responsible for current high gasoline prices) necessarily translate to higher oil prices? If the omelette factory in a town burns down, will people automatically pay more for their eggs at the market?