Where are all the unemployed?

[WolfeTone]

Who are "the people who do not work"?
Unemployment is at, or heading to all time lows.
Trade Unions only represent people at work
SF/FG/FF all got 20+% votes, way above the unemployment rate.
What is "generous housing"? 10,000 homeless, tens of thousands on waiting lists, tens of thousands struggling to pay rent, mortgage, tens of thousands living too long with parents unable to buy a home.
Where is this generous housing system?

Its a nonsense to think the housing issue can be resolved in any effective way by moving people around in a game of musical chairs, depending on spare rooms or their employment status - either of which could change at any given moment, meaning more musical chairs.
It doesn't happen anywhere else in the world, not since the dawn of time.
The answer to the housing issue is build more houses. If the private sector is failing in that regard, which it is, the State needs to step in.

 

[odyssey06]

Who are "the people who do not work"?
Unemployment is at, or heading to all time lows.

Is it? If we used the same measure as France for determining unemployment, what would ours be e.g. participation in the workforce.

 

[WolfeTone]

Is it? If we used the same measure as France for determining unemployment, what would ours be e.g. participation in the workforce.

Why would I use the same measure as France? Should we just cherry pick whatever measure we want to suit the narrative that we wish to push?
But im open to alternative viewpoints, what is our unemployment rate using the French measure.

 

[odyssey06]

Why would I use the same measure as France? Should we just cherry pick whatever measure we want to suit the narrative that we wish to push?
But im open to alternative viewpoints, what is our unemployment rate using the French measure.

It looks like successive Irish governments have done the cherry picking to push their own narrative.

If people on job activation schemes were included in the unemployment figures, the rate of unemployment would be roughly 3 percentage points higher – a significant impact

FactCheck: You asked, we answered - "real unemployment"

Are job activation schemes masking the reality of unemployment in Ireland? What kind of jobs are people getting anyway?

www.thejournal.ie

Why did our figures for those on disability surge 50% since 2008?

Government sees 50% surge in disability claims in a decade

The Government is investigating a surge in disability claims after they have jumped by 50%.

www.irishexaminer.com

Why do more Irish peple live in jobless households than in the rest of the EU?

Why do more Irish people live in jobless households than in the rest of the EU?

In 2009, 23% of Irish people between the ages of 0 and 59 lived in a jobless household. The equivalent figure for the EU -15 was 11%. The next highest was the UK at 13%. What this means I have used the figures for 2009, as they have been the subject of detailed studies by the ESRI and NESC...

www.askaboutmoney.com

Why would you choose the Irish ones and not the French ones?
The main point is that if you want to count "the people who do not work", you really cannot base it upon the declared Irish unemployment rate.

 

[WolfeTone]

Why would you choose the Irish ones and not the French ones?

Because Im talking about Irish unemployment figures. I cannot really discuss Irish unemployment figures if the discussion is open to comparing them with measurement models any given random nation.

The main point is that if you want to count "the people who do not work", you really cannot base it upon the declared Irish unemployment rate.

Well what measurement should apply?

Why do more Irish peple live in jobless households than in the rest of the EU?

Are those 2009 Irish measured figures?
Why not use French measurement figures here?

 

[odyssey06]

Because Im talking about Irish unemployment figures. I cannot really discuss Irish unemployment figures if the discussion is open to comparing them with measurement models any given random nation.

Are you talking about the unemployed as per the arbitrary definition of the Irish government or those who do not work?
If you want to talk about those who do not work don't use the unemployment rate declared by the Irish government.

I have provided ample support to demonstrate why that is a fallacy including references to other major EU countries whose declared unemployment rate more closely matches "those who do not work".
The Irish unemployment rate does not equate to those who do not work. It is wrong to say that it does.

 

[WolfeTone]

Are you talking about the unemployed as per the arbitrary definition of the Irish government or those who do not work?

I was talking about the unemployment rate, but I sense you are not satisfied with such. So im happy to use the "those who do not work" figure (Irish measurement model or French?).
So let me know what it is and how it has anything to do with there being a supposed generous housing system in this country when homelessness is at record highs, waiting lists record high, private rents through the roof, high rates of mortgage arrears, age profile increasing of those living at home with parents, etc...etc...

 

[odyssey06]

I was talking about the unemployment rate, but I sense you are not satisfied with such. So im happy to use the "those who do not work" figure (Irish measurement model or French?).
So let me know what it is and how it has anything to do with there being a supposed generous housing system in this country when homelessness is at record highs, waiting lists record high, private rents through the roof, high rates of mortgage arrears, age profile increasing of those living at home with parents, etc...etc...

Waiting lists are at record highs but so is the budget allocated to health, both relatively and in absolute terms.
Our social welfare budget is at a record high, both relatively and in absolute terms yet supposedly homelessness is at a record high.
Is it any wonder more and more people want to put their feet up and expect to state to provide everything when it is so generous.
When something is free there will never be enough of it.

Our generous housing system is claiming 20% of all new builds. It is buying up existing properties competing with those trying to make their own way in life.
Because we have so many Irish people putting their feet up instead of putting their shoulders to the wheel, we are sucking in people from outside Ireland to do the jobs Irish people won't do and I'm not talking about Facebook IT workers.
They have to live somewhere. Any new social housing within the M50 should only go to those who work.
We need to switch to American model of less benefits or a European model of tying elevated benefits to work.
Our model just ain't sustainable and is slowly eating itself.

 

[WolfeTone]

Is it any wonder more and more people want to put their feet up and expect to state to provide everything when it is so generous.
When something is free there will never be

I find this type of commentary very disparaging. Tens of thousands of working people lost their jobs, their businesses folded, recovery has been slow. But to think that the deepest economic crash will not leave long-term casualties - suicide, homelessness, depression, drug dependency, divorce and separation rates, etc.
There are not more and more people "want to put their feet up".
For someone who cites specific figures as evidence over other official figures, it is odd that you would then extrapolate a baseless interpretation from those figures.

we are sucking in people from outside Ireland to do the jobs Irish people won't do and I'm not talking about Facebook IT workers.

A lot FB IT workers are from abroad? Aren't they?
Why wont Irish people fill these jobs?

Our model just ain't sustainable and is slowly eating itself.

I do agree with this. But it is not poor people, sick people, elderly people, that is the problem. It is an economic system that puts paper profits and the value of balance sheets above everything else.
We live in a phony contrived monetary system that somehow manages to value our economy near twice what it was at the peak in 2007.
There is no plausible reason for this. The workforce hasn't expanded by any significant amount. Wage increases are increasing by modest amounts after a near decade of stagnation. Personal debt remains high, national debt equates to around €45,000 per capita, corporate debt is high etc...etc...
There is no plausible reason as to why the economy is valued nearly twice what it was in 2007 unless there has been massive manipulation and interference.

But, never mind all that, look over here...its all the fault of unemployed people, disabled people, people who are working but cant afford private rents or mortgages.

I don't think so.

 

[WolfeTone]

Thanks to Mod for opening this topic.
Thanks to @odyssey06 for providing figures from previous topic.

In order to extrapolate real meaning, I may require some clarification

A jobless household is defined as one where the average time worked in the last year by adults of 18 or over was less than 20%.

May I ask, 20% of what?


Or A couple where one person working full-time, non-working partner, with three kids or more are classed as a Jobless household in these figures?

 

[WolfeTone]

But the huge difference between Ireland and the rest of the EU 15 is the fact that 56% of adults in jobless households have children living with them. It's less than half that in the EU 15.

In other words, most jobless adults in the EU 15 do not have children living with them. This brings down the number of people living in jobless households.

What is supposed to be the significance of this?
Stop having children during periods of unemployment?
Kind of tricky once they have arrived.

 

[WolfeTone]

Unemployment rates across EU

Ireland 5.2% Aug 2019

 

[Protocol]

VLWI is defined as working less than 20% of the hours you could work.

So if a two adult household work as follows - one person one day, that means 10% work intensity.

We have had the highest numbers of people living in VLWI households every year for 11 years in a row.

 

[Protocol]

AROP and VLWI

A quick follow-up chart using Eurostat data on at-risk-of-poverty rates and very-low work intensity and again highlights Ireland as an outli...

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Very Low Work Intensity by Household Type

Ireland’s rate of people living in households with very low work intensity has received increased attention over the past few years. It’s n...

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Very low work intensity by tenure status

It is not hard to see why the issue of “jobless households” is something worth keeping an eye on from an Irish perspective. Here are figure...

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

 

[Protocol]

https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Household-joblessness-paper-final.pdf

Published July 2016.

 

[Protocol]

 

[WolfeTone]

Thank you for the comprehensive details above. It is clear that Ireland has a high level of VLWI to the EU-15 average.

It is also apparent that in 2003, at peak employment levels, that it was alot closer to EU average. It ballooned in 2009-2010 at height of recession and unemployment. It has receded from 23% in 2009 to around 18% in 2016 - when unemployment rate was about 9%. It would probably be fair to say that it has receded further since then, as the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.2%?
The last time our unemployment rate was at 5.2%, in 2003, our VLWI was close to 11% - the EU 15 average.

Others factors to consider is presence of children in Irish households. Irish birth rate of 1.77 children per woman remains above the EU average of 1.6.

Amongst the conclusions and recommendations, the following resonated with me.

Childcare

According to the OECD, childcare costs in Ireland are 40 per cent of the average wage,
over three times the EU average and the highest in the OECD. One of the country
specific recommendations the EU Commission made to Ireland in 2014 was to “facilitate
female labour force participation by improving access to more affordable and full-time
childcare, particularly for low income families”. In its country report in 2015 it found
that “no progress” had been made in this area."

Im also minded to think that the analysis above makes an over reliant assumption that VLWI households are preserve of low-income, low-skilled households.

Take a working career couple earning €120,000 (€85,000 and €35,000). Along come children, and by third child, one partner decides to stay at home and raise kids. Between cost of childcare, school and creche runs, cost of petrol on long commutes, pressure of working hours, one partner decides that for next number of years they will leave the workforce and raise kids at home.
At 20% , this is a VLWI household.
Considering the long commutes faced by the workforce in satellite towns of Dublin, career breaks are not uncommon for working people with kids. This undoubtedly adds to our VLWI household rate.

Of all the factors pertaining to VLWI, and the conclusions, interpretations and recommendations offered in the study, I can't find anything that suggests it is a case of more and more people "putting their feet up".

 

[RedOnion]

Take a working career couple earning €120,000 (€85,000 and €35,000). Along come children, and by third child, one partner decides to stay at home and raise kids. Between cost of childcare, school and creche runs, cost of petrol on long commutes, pressure of working hours, one partner decides that for next number of years they will leave the workforce and raise kids at home.
At 20% , this is a VLWI household.

I don't believe that's a correct interpretation?

Assuming the children being raised are under 18, then it would be 50%, not 20%? So not a VLWI household?

 

[WolfeTone]

I don't believe that's a correct interpretation?

You are correct, my misinterpretation.

 

[WolfeTone]

If people on job activation schemes were included in the unemployment figures, the rate of unemployment would be roughly 3 percentage points higher – a significant impact

These are not people "putting their feet up". These are people prepared to work , looking for opportunity, willing to learn, trying to impress, etc...in order to get sustainable employment.