What do AAMers think WILL happen in the coming months


"Comrades - We are living in momentous times." ~ Big Jim Larkin
 
You’re doing well up to this point, up to a point, so to speak.

Even this bit isn’t bad, if a bit pessimistic, even by current standards.

This is where it goes off the tracks. I fully agree that the founders of this nation got many things wrong the major one being our political structures and electoral system but the cracks didn’t show for the first few decades because of the high moral calibre of the leaders we had (from all Parties). Your final point ignores our own recent history. Oh, and by the way, the quest for Irish freedom i.e. Irish nationalism, is a recent thing. It has to be because Nationalism is a recent thing. It really only dates back to the 1780’s. Before then people owed allegiance to a monarch, not a state.
 
Purple said:
...but the cracks didn’t show for the first few decades because of the high moral calibre of the leaders we had (from all Parties).
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This may be true but even if such moral high calibre were present in our current politicians (lol), that in itself is insufficient as they also need to be capable (which they clearly are not), instead of inept (which they clearly are). As Paul Sommerville was saying on VinB tonight, we desperately now need a team of experienced, qualified, competent hard-nosed people to deal with the eu for us during the impending bail out fund discussions, and definitely NOT the very inept shower of idiots who got us here in the first place (those are mostly my own words but you get the gist). He also made the point that all further debt the gov heap on us through accessing this fund (which will all go to funding the banks' black holes even further) only adds to our sovereign debt and tightens the noose to a stranglehold (you've guessed it, again a bit of poetic license here). Our incompetent team of "negotiators" ha! who got us into this mess by wedding the private debt of the banks to the sovereign debt with their blanket guarantee, are now further "negotiating" on our behalf to add even more billions to our sovereign debt by taking eu money directly as the sovereign to give directly to the banks again. And all of course because the ECB and all those german/french/british banks/bondholders etc all want the money they "risked?" lending to basket case Irish banks @ very nice % rates back home safely where it belongs, and the best way to achieve this is to burden the Irish people even further with increased sovereign debt. And judging by our gov's track record to date, I despair! What a shower of Gombeenmen!
 
"I was at the Kelikenomics festival at the weekend"

Sorry Chris, but weren't we already told it was only comedians at that festival and we shouldn't pay them any attention.
 
kingvagabond said:
...This is a major turning point in our history, maybe a real revolution will take place where people will be put before power...
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Good post, and the idea quoted above is probably shared by an ever-increasing portion of our disenchanted, & soon to be even further disenfranchised citizens. But it's not going anywhere other than as a fairytale ideal unless it gets some legs...so let's try give it some legs then!

At any other time in history, in a time of high moral fibre, leadership for the common good, idealism, standing up and accepting responsibility, patriotism & pride in your country, at any other time, what has been perpetrated by those entrusted by us to act in our best interests and the interests of our children, to be the guardians of this free nation that was won so dearly, would well be deemed treasonable.

It's not just the current new eu bail-out debt they are probably going to further strangle us with, the already insurmountable debt they've already heaped on us with the bank bail-out to date & NAMA, the eagerness to make the easy choices forcing the less well off, young and sick to bear the brunt of their budget "adjustments" (not the voting pensioners if possible please), the ballooning of the PS, FAS etc, the sleaze, brown envelopes, Galway tents, corporate donations, rezonings, tribunals, politicians' pay pensions & expenses, jets helicopters n gov limos, the hiding behind committees & quangos & HSE's & expert groups and nobody accepting responsibility for anything, the hiding behind expensive lawyers & "due process" for themselves and their business buddies with their huge bonuses, just cash the check n wait for the pension and in the meantime rip the expenses for ALL they're worth, and a big 2 Fingers to all those dumb suckers who placed their trust in them in the 1st place, cause they promised to "serve" (read self serve) their electorate in such an "altruistic" manner 'twould make a saint wanna puke! This post will be deleted if not edited immediately CHRIST!...now I think about it, it actually IS because of all those things!

Has anyone from Anglo or any other institution been charged with anything yet? The red herring of the missing passwords and the kazillion bits of evidence that all has to be so thoroughly read, and, er, oh yeah, there's also due process of course, and then a file will be sent to the DPP, sometime. The dogs in the street know that nobody will or can be charged with anything of any seriousness because the regulator & DOF had given the green light for all the shenanigans and the DPP will never proceed with any prosecutions and won't even have to give a reason, and the over 2 year anglo enquiry will just dissipate as just the PR sham it always was. And the gov know all this of course, and just as they lied and lied and lied about the bank bailouts over the past 2 years and as they continued to lie about the current bail-out fund negotiations, they show us the 2 fingers of contempt yet again.

Thankfully the present administration is almost finished, but the sovereignty of the State has been so imperiled by their conduct that it could be termed as almost subversive, and the question is what could or should have been undertaken by those of us who would wish to avert such a situation arising again. The new Fine Gael Labour alternative doesn't appear to be all that different to the present one I fear. What can we do to wrench back our country from the scourge of self serving vested interests and make it into a society for ALL?

Well, one thing we have is the internet and forums such as these, where more informed and competent discourse can be found than at any gov table I'd wager, where people gladly offer help and advice to each other free of charge, did I hear altruistic?..now that might be a good place to start...a new movement! We're always here bitching amongst ourselves on these forums, why not organize something...the Net Party (I am open to suggestions here, answers on a postcard please to "the Island", oh no, of course there's the internet, an email will do just as good so!) People will contribute their different wishes for the new post bail-out Ireland and by a process of electronic hit counts our new manifesto will take shape!

Any takers? ... I wanna be Chancellor! And if you give me your vote I promise I'll look after you 'n yours
 
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Whether we get a bailout from the EU/IMF or not there will have to be cuts and emigration. There are no two ways about this. We spend more than we take in. This is the fault of the people who overspent and who voted in those who promised everything and delivered nothing while bankrupting the country.

I don't get all this nationalistic jargon at this point in time. We corrupted ourselves. Nobody else is at fault here. Until we learn to grow up and elect those who will govern properly and not for their own vested interests nothing will change. That won't happen unless we have someone of vision who will change the whole establishment and the way it works, that is parliament, lower and upper house, legal system etc. But for that we need a people that are behind a fundamental change in the structure of Irish society. And if a revolution is needed for that so be it.

Meanwhile, in case there is no revolution, we need to get real and be prepared to deal with spending cuts, higher taxes and emigration. The positives are that we have done it before, we've come through worse recessions and if everyone does their bit there is no reason why we cannot become a stronger better nation. I for one am not proud of the celtic tiger generation and the sooner we leave it behind the better.
 

Well said Bronte, the sooner we accept what we cannot change and get on with taking the pain that we will have to take the better it will be for everyone.

It's about managing the pain and how best to spread it around and doing the least amount of damage to the economy that we are being left with.
 


Why should we accept that we cannot change.. people change all the time, yes we can manage the pain and get on with it and work at it but to say we cannot change is wrong.. we are a strong people, many clever, hard working, trustworthy people in our nation, its up to us the people to seek change or it will never happen..we do have a voice, we just have to use it.
 
Sorry for any misunderstanding.
As ARISTOTLE said the first 20 k would not suffer a reduction. Above that we need a reduction in all salaries that come from the public purse.And even bigger cuts above 100k. Reverse benchmarking and welfare levels back to 1996 if you like.
The point I am trying to make is that this is what a serious government would do in trying to get our current account deficit under control. Not lurching from crisis to crisis in the hope that something will turn up to remedy the situation.
That is not going to happen . The markets have called our bluff and we are going to be bailed out with very harsh conditions. We can`t refuse this money ,otherwise we would run out of money to pay salaries and welfare.
People still lived well in 1996 so a step down to the pay levels then wouldn`t be a disaster.Lower wages would mean lower costs .Admittedly people with high debts will have problems but it is the only way.
It is very important to keep our low corporate tax rate , otherwise the multinationals will leave. The talk about the attraction of speaking english and our well educated work force is vastly over rated. My gut feeling is that the corporate tax rate will rise to 20 or 25%. Imagine the scenario with the IMF and the ECB in the "negotiations" with our politicians. Do you want to reduce salaries, pensions and welfare by ANOTHER 15% and close ANOTHER 10 local hospitals or instead you can increase the corporation tax by 15%?
We will get a taste of things to come in the upcoming budget.
 
I think we will see a 20bn bailout linked to the banks a sort of fund that Irish CB will administer but many a slip between cup and lip. Presume ECB will stomp up til this is agreed
 
Think I heard it mentioned last night that in Hungary (or it could have been Latvia!) that the IMF reduces the size of Parliament by 50% - sounds like an excellent start to me. This would bring the notion of performance management into government ie. you screw up and you pay the penalty, and I have no doubt 83 TDs would be far more efficient than 166 who spend their days reading the death notices looking for something to do.

Roy
 
mmclo said:
I think we will see a 20bn bailout linked to the banks a sort of fund that Irish CB will administer but many a slip between cup and lip. Presume ECB will stomp up til this is agreed
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But Somerville put it brilliantly on Vincent Browne last night when he said something like "they will give us the first tranche of say €20BN which the Irish Govt will then give to BOI and AIB, who will in turn hand it back to the German Banks who threw money at Irish Banks - so net effect is that Irish taxpayer is on the hook for a further €20BN and German banks are very relieved to get €20BN they never thought they would see again"

Good man Biffo!

Roy
 

Totally agree with you onekeano. The decisons have already been made and what you have outlined above is the most likely result. They simply aren't telling us yet and it might be quite some time for them to finally do so.

There is a strong need for us all to ensure whatever money goes into the banks from the EU is not considered to be an Irish debt but instead is regarded as a Bank to Bank loan. We as a people have wasted enough money on these black holes that we still call Banks.
 
Bcommercial said:
This may be true but even if such moral high calibre were present in our current politicians (lol), that in itself is insufficient as they also need to be capable (which they clearly are not), instead of inept (which they clearly are)...
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Good post and nice conclusion

canicemcavoy said:
"I was at the Kelikenomics festival at the weekend"

Sorry Chris, but weren't we already told it was only comedians at that festival and we shouldn't pay them any attention.
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Well, I went to two shows and there wasn't any commedians. All economists except for one Keynesian.
 
In my opinion, if the German banks were stupid enough to lend to Seanie and co, then they should get burned. Our Government should take a stand on this issue and say that the Irish taxpayer will not carry the can for wreakless Germans.

While at early stages in this crisis, the impression was given that Anglo is systemic to the Irish bank system. This appears to have been incorrect. Its becoming increasingly clear that Anglo was a bank that got money from German pensioners and lend it out to builders for overpriced crazy landmark schemes in London - hence why the UK Government has suddenly started announcing that it is willing to contribute to a bail out.

If we dont dance to the EU tune, German pensions and the London property market are toast. Germans and UK are trying to call the shots to protect themselves. We should cut Anglo lose and tell them to sort their own mess out.
 
Bronte said:
I don't get all this nationalistic jargon at this point in time. We corrupted ourselves. Nobody else is at fault here. Until we learn to grow up and elect those who will govern properly and not for their own vested interests nothing will change.
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I agree completely. Taking responsibility for yourself is the crade of society - we have failed to do this as a nation again and again.

People talk about riots on the streets if we are bailed out. I've already heard of muggings going on in the car park of our local supermarket. Society? Give me a break. Honour, decency, compassion, responsibility and truth - that is the begining of society. Everything else comes on top.

Clearly we cannot rule ourselves. So let someone else come in so we can blame them for doing what we would have had to have done if our banana republic had been solo, instead of part of the EU.

Yes the EU contributed by having lower interest rates than were appropriate for us. But guess what, we didn't join the Euro over night! Politicians and civil servants debated this point for 10 years! The decision was made to go in, then our entire goverment and beaurocracy got drunk and ran our country with a skill more apropriate to Mugabe than a civilised nation.

Is there hope? God I hope so. But by Christ we need change, all the way from the top to the bottom, and the bottom to the top. We need to grow up. Otherwise this country is not worth staying in.
 
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