Vaccine progress

odyssey06

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A vaccine jointly developed by Pfizer and BioNTech was 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 infections in ongoing Phase 3 trials, the companies has announced today, exceeding the expectations of experts. Protection in patients was achieved seven days after the second of two doses, and 28 days after the first, according to preliminary findings... Based on supply projections, the companies said they expect to supply up to 50 million vaccine doses globally in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021.
 
Great news. The NY Times just references Pfizer. For a vaccine to produce herd immunity in a contagious disease such as Measles 95% of the population needs to be vaccinated. The MMR is 99% effective against Measles, slightly less so against Mumps and rubella. Therefore even with a 90% effective vaccine there is a good change that Covid19 will remain with us, just to a far lesser extent. Measles and Covid19 are both RNA viruses and so should share similar characteristics when it comes to vaccine effectiveness and mutation (which is good news).
 
The stockmarket is welcoming it as well

5093
 
Not sure how happy I would be to take a vaccine that is developed this quickly to be honest. It's great news but I myself would probably hold off for 18 months and see what the long term impact is...
 
Not sure how happy I would be to take a vaccine that is developed this quickly to be honest. It's great news but I myself would probably hold off for 18 months and see what the long term impact is...

I think the roll out order will be front line staff, high risk age group, high risk medical conditions then to the general population.
Unless you fall into one of the first categories it could be months - to a year from now before considered.

There is the possibility that countries may restrict entry to people who don't have the vaccination once it has been rolled out.
But that's a topic for different discussion.
 
Not sure how happy I would be to take a vaccine that is developed this quickly

They had 40,000 in the trial.

I suppose it's possible that there could be side effects which might only show up a long time after being vaccinated, but I am sure that the scientists are on top of that.

I would trust the scientists and the regulatory bodies.

But if some people don't want to take it, it just means that the waiting time for the rest of us will be shorter.



Brendan
 
More detail from the Guardian on the logistics of rollout:
Many countries already have orders for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The UK has bought 30m doses – enough for 15 million people because two doses are required. The EU has secured 200m doses, which it will distribute. The companies have a $1.95bn contract with the US government to deliver 100m vaccine doses beginning this year. There is an issue for low-income countries, however, because this is a vaccine that needs ultra-cold chain; it must be stored at -80C. The BioNTech chief executive, Uğur Şahin, has said his company is researching whether the vaccine might also be able to survive for up to five days at a normal fridge temperature of 4C. In Germany, the government is planning to set up vaccination centres equipped with ultra-low-temperature freezers for the first phase of vaccinations.

 
They had 40,000 in the trial.

I suppose it's possible that there could be side effects which might only show up a long time after being vaccinated, but I am sure that the scientists are on top of that.

I would trust the scientists and the regulatory bodies.

But if some people don't want to take it, it just means that the waiting time for the rest of us will be shorter.



Brendan
That's just what Bill Gates and the Lizard People want you to believe!!!
Never mind science and proof and logic and rationality, the Twits twittering on Twitter must be right.
 
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They had 40,000 in the trial.

Just to clarify, though the results are encouraging, this is .

It looked only at the first 94 confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the 43,000 volunteers who received either 2 doses of the vaccine or 2 doses of the placebo.
 
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The preliminary analysis looked at the first 94 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among the study's more than 43,000 volunteers who either received two doses of the vaccine or two doses of a placebo. It found that less than 10% of infections were in participants who had received the vaccine.
More than 90% of the coronavirus cases were in people who had received the placebo.


The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,538 participants to date, 38,955 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 8, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds. The trial is continuing to enroll and is expected to continue through the final analysis when a total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued.

The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule.

I am trying to understand these figures.

5096


It seems like a very low infection rate overall?

Over what time period did they measure the chances of infection? Let's say it was 60 days (27 August to 27 October)

The 14 day incidence rate in Ireland is 175/100,000 or 17/10,000

But I think it has been much higher overall in the period 27 August to 27 October. so 40 in 60 days seems very low.

Maybe the placebo is effective as well :)

Brendan
 

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Maybe we are not comparing like with like.

In Ireland we are testing suspect cases such as close contacts or those exposed to the virus through their work.

The Pfizer study tested a randomly selected group, where the incidence should be lower.

Brendan
 
Maybe we are not comparing like with like.
In Ireland we are testing suspect cases such as close contacts or those exposed to the virus through their work.
The Pfizer study tested a randomly selected group, where the incidence should be lower.
Brendan

You are onto something... in that even the placebo figures are lower than results of mass testings.

I amnt sure if all participants were actually tested.
I dont think they tested all participants, just those who reported symptoms.
Unclear if vaccinated could still be spreaders - earlier animal trials showed no viral load.

So the figures are not like for like.
 
It's only when you look at the last vaccine that was rushed through in Ireland/Europe back in 2009 I would have concerns.


Notwithstanding the increased incidence of narcolepsy in the european variant...
I havent seen anything to indicate that you were better off taking your chances with swine flu unaided.

Bearing in mind upper respiratory tract infections can trigger narcolepsy in susceptible individuals, and swine flu was a factor in approx 200 deaths of u18s in the US alone.
 
This article may explain things a little better.

“Dr Anne Moore, a senior lecturer in the UCC school of biochemistry and cell biology, said the Pfizer/BioNTech announcement is "really significant".

Speaking on RTÉ's News at One, she described it as "the first breakthrough" in relation to a vaccine that can protect against SARS Covid-2 infection.

She said this trial has so far immunised 43,000 people, including those who received the vaccine and those who got a placebo.

It is an interim analysis, she said, which means they have looked very early on at a small cohort of people who have been diagnosed as Covid positive.

"So this actually is only looking at 94 individuals, not the whole 43,000," Dr Moore said. "That would be very difficult in such a short space of time."

She said that in those 94 cases of Covid-19, there were 90% fewer infections in the vaccinated population.

"Nine or ten of the infected are vaccinated and the other 80 plus people are in the placebo arm of the trial. So it is an interim analysis but it is very, very positive news.


"It does show that there are significantly fewer cases when you're vaccinated. This is seven days after the second immunisation of these individuals, so we do need to see how long that can protect for, but it is a really significant finding."

Pfizer will spend the next month or two following up on all of those who were vaccinated, Dr Moore said, and will then apply for an 'Emergency Use Authorisation' so they can get a licence to distribute and sell the vaccine.
 
I'd expect people who volunteer for a vaccination trial to tend to be more science-led and careful with a mask, social distancing etc. so it makes sense that both the vaccinated and the placebo groups would have lower rates than the general population.
 
So they "treated" 43,000 people

Somehow , they selected a sample of these for testing. Maybe those who reported symptoms?

94 had Covid, and most came from the placebo group.

Were there others who were tested who were negative?

Clearly 9:1 is a very significant ratio.

But with such a small percentage infected, could the results not be impacted by false negatives and false positives?

Brendan
 
The press release does not specify the exact split of those who received the vaccine and those who received the placebo.

It said that of the 43,538 tested, only 94 reported systems and that the vast majority of those had been given the placebo.

That is really all we know until the full details of the trial are published and peer reviewed.

Only those participants who reported symptoms were tested. Potentially infected participants without symptoms were not tested, and their infections remain unknown for now.

Nothing is yet known of the age, medical background, ethnicity, etc of the participants or of those who tested positive.
 
A very high number of those who have been shown to be infected have been in care homes/ nursing homes so the figures are probably reflective of broader community infections.
I think it's reasonable to assume that a major pharma company operating within FDA and EMA best practice guidance have taken account of most of the stuff we can come up with here.
 
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