Unemployment at 11%

D

donee

Registered User
Messages
441
Unemployment rate announced yesterday was 11% but how accurate a figure is it, when you consider that a large % of builders and sales people were either self employed or sole traders that now are not working and dont now qualify for any job seekers allowance.
 
There are two separate figures here.

There is the number signing on the Live Register, which is what came out this week. That includes all those signing on for JB, JA, or credits. Those on a 2 or 3 day week would be included here, which is why it is always published with the disclaimer that it is not a measure of unemployment.

Then there is the Standardised Unemployment Rate (SUR), which is currently estimated at 11%. This comes from the QNHS (Quarterly National Household Survey). This would capture those who were self employed etc who are not signing on, but excludes those working part time. It measures unemployment by asking if the person has worked in the last 2 weeks, and if not, have they sought work. So any active jobseeker will be counted there.
As it only happens every quarter, a new estimate is produced along with the live register figures each month.
 
On a slightly positive note, the rate of increase in numbers of those signing on has reduced from 11.3% in January to 5.7% in March.

(Source: Ulster Bank's regular economy email bulletin)
 
I am a former self employed person as are a lot of my friends. I have never heard of this QNHS survey and nobody has asked me recently (or ever) if I have worked in the last two weeks. I am not entitled to any social welfare assistance (inspite of the huge tax bills I have incurred in the last 12 or so years). This is the situtation with a lot of people I know and therefore I conclude that previously self employed people are not captured in this figure.
I would suggest that the 11% unemplyment figure is a lot lower than the reality. Does the 11% capture those doing FAS courses or on BTEA etc?
 
I persume the QNHS surveys takes a 'sample' of the population and from this comes its figure..assuming the sample is adequate the figures should be quite accurate
 
The sample is 39,000 households per quarter, so fairly substantial. Each household is interviewed for 5 quarters, so there are 8,000 new households every quarter.
 
Caveat said:
On a slightly positive note, the rate of increase in numbers of those signing on has reduced from 11.3% in January to 5.7% in March.

(Source: Ulster Bank's regular economy email bulletin)
Click to expand...

Jack2008 said:
I am a former self employed person as are a lot of my friends. I have never heard of this QNHS survey and nobody has asked me recently (or ever) if I have worked in the last two weeks. I am not entitled to any social welfare assistance (inspite of the huge tax bills I have incurred in the last 12 or so years). This is the situtation with a lot of people I know and therefore I conclude that previously self employed people are not captured in this figure.
I would suggest that the 11% unemplyment figure is a lot lower than the reality. Does the 11% capture those doing FAS courses or on BTEA etc?
Click to expand...
i'd have to agree with you
 
Foir information the Live Register figure includes:
1. Fully unemployed
2. Casual workers
3. Part-time workers
4. Short-time workers
5. 'Credits only' cases
6. Self-employed who passed means test.
7. Back to education recipients
8. Back to Work recipients
9. Pre-retirement recipients (Over 55 years)
10. Atypical unemployemnt cases (i.e school workers on hols but not paid by employer)

So, the 11% 'unemployent figure' is not a measure in any sense of the word.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top