UK New Builds prices down by 40%

This may not an even portrayal of house stock categories or prices across the UK as a whole. But probably refers mostly to terrible area's with terrible house built apartments. Sunderland had derelict houses sold by its council for £1 more than 8 years ago, same houses now worth £98k. I wouldn’t have bought them in the first place - maybe £1,50.

Remember, Telegraph is a Tory paper and is starting to get into election mode. It coverage can be selective - like that of all newspapers. You are right, in 18 months there could be very promising bargains. One mans misfortune is another’s gain.
 
Camry said:
Beware the bear trap.
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You what? Its called reality. UK new build off plan is one of the worst possible investment decisions you could ever make.

There are now mortgage brokers unwilling to lend on anything less than 2-3 years old.

the 40% is undoubteldy the extreme but I wouldn't be surprised if certain city centre new builds are being sold at 15%-20% more than you would get when selling 3 years later.

City centre new build flats are oversupplied to the extreme.
 
ringledman said:
You what? Its called reality. City centre new build flats are oversupplied to the extreme.
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Ringledman - you are right to be a bear. We've had differences of opinion in other threads as you tend to be too bullish? However in this one you are 100% correct. There have been some sorry builds in some sorry locations. I'll wait another 24 months and have the rich picking within the London market (unfortunately for some - I wish no one misfortune but it is inevitable). Preferably around Croydon or SE25’s that will go for a song. I prefer south London as it is more family orientated.

I attended a few auctions during the last correction circa 1990's, then many properties didn’t even get of the blocks during auction. As I always believe, timing is essential...hold off as history always repeats itself (sadly). I expect a 35% correction, same as last time, but maybe a higher fall. Last cycle prior to bust, prices in real terms where +35-40% lower.
 
The Daily Telegraph recently carried an article ref. 2 bed city centre apartments being repossessed and sold at auction, for far less than their original selling price.

In my own town in the south east some flats sold at £250k 18 months/2 years ago went at auction gor £145k, and even at that price the rentals don't stack up. On a nearby Barratts development, off-plan prices started at £199k two years ago - now completed they start at £139k.
 
MichaelDes said:
Ringledman - you are right to be a bear. We've had differences of opinion in other threads as you tend to be too bullish? However in this one you are 100% correct. There have been some sorry builds in some sorry locations. I'll wait another 24 months and have the rich picking within the London market (unfortunately for some - I wish no one misfortune but it is inevitable). Preferably around Croydon or SE25’s that will go for a song. I prefer south London as it is more family orientated.

I attended a few auctions during the last correction circa 1990's, then many properties didn’t even get of the blocks during auction. As I always believe, timing is essential...hold off as history always repeats itself (sadly). I expect a 35% correction, same as last time, but maybe a higher fall. Last cycle prior to bust, prices in real terms where +35-40% lower.
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MichaelDes I am a bear! Well I am a Western Europe bear.

I don't want to be last to the UK, Ireland, Spain, France, Btl party.

But some of the CEE I feel is different. Particularly the Czech Rep & Poland. They have the legal cover of being EC members, a good amount of FDI and over the course of 10-20 years should be on a par with us. they also aren't indebted up to their eyeballs like we are.

I even think Germany is good value but with the lack of finance & capital gains I don't think it is worth getting in there yet.

I'm too young to remember the last crash but like you think there will be some bargains to be had. Pity the people who bought at the peak in the UK but its crazy to do so.

I read somewhere that property usually crash 70% of its gain. So after inflation your 35% prediction could well become true.

Patience over the next few years should lead to some bargins.
 
I just bought a new build in canary wharf a few months ago.
Won't be completed for sanother 3 years.

DO yee reckon it is destined to fall in the next couple of years too ?

Or do yee think london is safer?
 
qwertyuiop said:
I just bought a new build in canary wharf a few months ago.
Won't be completed for sanother 3 years.

DO yee reckon it is destined to fall in the next couple of years too ?

Or do yee think london is safer?
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If it is top end it will be fairly well protected. But if it's standard Canary Wharf stuff, study what happened the last time by each post code area. There must be some internet information or source somewhere that is able to provide detailed analysis per area's of London as well as for the rest of the UK.

However, it was a 35% correction across the UK as a whole although boroughs such as Chelsea, Knightsbridge & Islington had less than 10% corrections. Qwertyuiop - rents in London will help weather out any storm - I would not worry as long as it washes its face. It's these ones in Manchester and Huddersfield etc, which do not have the right dynamic and there is an over supply etc, that for rental will be an uphill struggle and feel a frost of any downturn. Good area's always weather better.
 
I'm not sure what u mean by top end - but it cost £325k (c. €500k)for a 1-bed with no parking right in thr heart of canary wharf. Presumably this is not top-end.

I think I like the idea that it won't be completed for another 3 years.

Although if the price drops in the meantime I suppose I could be in trouble getting a mortgage which may result in the long run in being a bad thing.

Time will tell I suppose.
 
I don't understand the terminology.
I'm guessing a bear trap is someone who mistakenly holds off buying during a bullish period and a bulltrap is the opposite.

Can someone explain a bear/bull trap please.
 
Camry said:
DO you know what a bear trap is?
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"A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not". Per the http link.

Camry,

Markets are all about sentiment and confidence. Financial companies and Hedge funds spend a fortune measuring these. Either people are fearful or they are madly optimistic. It seems that tide has turned, the fundamentals of the market show it tp be in the first stages of a crumble after the prior period of denial. Who is buying UK property this year as an investment? Qwertyuiop - you can put your hand down. How much of a depoist have you put down?
 
I have comprehension difficulties with your concept "bear trap". In UK property, sentiment bad and fundamentals bad (prices falling)- hence no bear trap. In the context of this thread and in straight language bear trap is a blooper.
 
qwertyuiop said:
I put down 10% on £322k Sterling.i.e. £32,200
The balance on completion in 3 years time.

Why do you ask?
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Just thought it was a small sum...such as £3k, therefore you could walk away if it went sour. I still think the deal is okay and the investment too. Interest rates in 3 years will probably be lower, the city will have gotten over its hiccup, property will still be a good asset and you should be able to cover the mortgage through strong rental. London is one of the financial capitals of the world, Canary Wharf is well placed beside it - salaries in the City are £100k/300k plus bonus for traders. Your rental will always be good with these young high rollers from Essex. Address is everything to them - pity you don't have a parking space the extra £40k would have been worth it.
 
Ya - I'm happy enough with the investment to be honest.

I put it down 5 months ago - the market has been active enough sinvce then even in London.

Once I can get the mortgage it should be a good safe medium-term bet.
 
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