to sell our rent property

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We are buying a new house (up-grading) and we can afford (as in the bank will let us) keep our existing house, We have already released alot of equity on it as we had a bit of bumping start originally settling back in Ireland but now we have two steady jobs and good salaries (myself and husband) plus my husband does alot of his own work and this is going well too.

If we sell by the time we pay extra in estate agents and solicitors I budget that we will only have approx 10k more than if we keep the property take 90% investment and rent it.

The rent will practically cover the mortgage shortfall of EUR 90 at present. We do however have three small children.

I am suggesting we put 3 x months rent in a deposit account in case we have bad tennants... but heard today there is a UCD prof suggesting the housing market is going to crash over 10 years with as much as 60% fall in prices.


Can anyone give me advice??

Thanks
 
Thank you - this post has lots of conflicting information in and some of it dates back to 2005 - 2004 things have changed considerably now - If we keep the property it would be a ten year thing??
 
sell the first house - bad enough the probability of your own home reducing in value - but at least you have the utility value of living there

something about no domestic control of interest rates, 350k empty properties in Ireland, reducing affordability and a global credit crunch
 
SBW said:
this post has lots of conflicting information in and some of it dates back to 2005 - 2004 things have changed considerably now
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Like what exactly?

Remember that there is no simple catch all answer to questions such as this so it's hardly surprising if there are divergent opinions on such matters.
 
Basically the question in a nutshell seems to be will property prices fall?
If they will,you will sell -0 and if they won't, then you won't sell.

You've really gott amake your mind up yourself on that one.

If you want my opinion I'd say rent.
In thw long term the value will go up - just depends how long that term will be though.

The ESRI reckon a 3% drop this year - stabilising next year - and who knows after that !!
 
i agree to keep it and rent on one condition. WHat is the location of the house? Do you believe the price of your house is worth it or is it over valued?

Prices may fall in parts of ireland in the next few years, in others it may actually go up.
 
The UCD prof was basing his analysis on data from a series of 40 house price boom and bust cycles in the OECD countries from 1970.

We all know that the economic situation in Celtic tiger Ireland is completely different from anything seen before, so his analysis doesn't apply here.
 
WHat's so different about celtic tiger ireland to the other 40 crashes he studied ?
 
The estimates in the report are extrapolated from the data from previous boom/bust cycles none of which experienced a boom quite as large as Ireland's. So that's one caveat at least - we really are in uncharted waters.

Also, we do have a growing population or, more pertinently, a growing number of household units which is also different from most of the situation analysed in the report. However the report does give a different slant on the market from the consensus view. It is available here [broken link removed] so that everyone can make up their own mind.

IMHO the findings are exagerated but are certainly as realistic, if not more so, than the situation proposed by the "Everything will be fine next autumn/year" brigade.
 
Its been about 10 years now since they first started saying the property market will colapse. IT HASNT. even to this day it hasnt. Its simply correcting itself which is no major problem. Some places are still increasing in value outside dublin ie parts of munster.

If you can afford to keep it then keep it. If your idea is to hold on for ten years and rent it out then this takes away the whole idea of property value as over a ten year period it will be subject to increase and decrease. After ten years you will have a fair chunk gone out of the mortgage and still have the assit.

If the property market does colapse the rental market will be even more secured as the supply to the market will dry up.
 
kkelliher said:
If the property market does colapse the rental market will be even more secured as the supply to the market will dry up.
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But houses will be cheaper, economic activity will be lower and renting migrant workers who are currently here to build houses will be gone, so why will the rental market be even more secure? It may hold up as supply decreases but I don't see it improving.
 
If the market was ever to collapse, the majority of people would not be selling because they would not be moving on to buy somewhere else. The only houses that would be on the market would be those who defaulted or investers selling out. Investors are less likely to sell at a loss. Lets not make it sound as if we are going to end up on the floor. We have one of the strongest economys in Europe and our migrant workers dont have alot of options when it comes to better locations as the UK have barred most of them. Its peoples negativity that we are all talking about not the reality of whats happening on the ground.

All of the present reports are based on historical data of times gone by. Ireland has never been in the position it has been for the last five years so how can anyone use historical data for explaining whats going to happen in the future? It seems its ok for new futures to happen but history tells us its all going to fall on its face...... somehow i dont think so.
 
kkelliher said:
Lets not make it sound as if we are going to end up on the floor. We have one of the strongest economys in Europe and our migrant workers dont have alot of options when it comes to better locations as the UK have barred most of them.
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Don't you mean apart from the UK?

Do you think they will stick around here if they lose their jobs?
 
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