Markjbloggs
Registered User
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DrMoriarty said:It's a corollary of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. But do a Google search for "Timing the stock market" and you'll see loads of books and websites that claim to teach you the secrets...
DrMoriarty said:It's a corollary of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. But do a Google search for "Timing the stock market" and you'll see loads of books and websites that claim to teach you the secrets...
Google just .Markjbloggs said:Google is full of sh**e
DrMoriarty said:Google just .
I meant to add a '' at the end of my last sentence, but I must have clicked 'Submit' too quickly...
Active traders would have you believe that timing the market is a good startegy because this is what they attempt to do. There were some statistics in the latest issue of The Economist that I may post to support the theory that more often that not it's "a mug's game" ((c) ClubMan)Markjbloggs said:Some investors, especially academics, believe it is impossible to time the market. Other investors, notably active traders, believe strongly in market timing. Thus, whether market timing is possible is really a matter of opinion.
What we can say with certainty is that it's very difficult to be successful at market timing continuously over the long-run. For the average investor who doesn't have the time (or desire) to watch the market on a daily basis, there are good reasons to avoid market timing and focus on investing for the long-run.
tyoung said:This leads me to think that as long as this is conventional wisdom, returns on index investing will be disappointing.
bearishbull said:did finance in college and remember reading that empirical studies found it near impossible to time markets accurately in the long term and in short term transaction costs nearly wiped out returns.they found the best way of investing was'nt to put a lump sum into market but to invest every month or every year and this smoothes out chances of buying at excessive prices.
killeoin said:bearishbull...If you did finance in college you should have also learned about the markets tendency to overshoot on downward price movements...Hence straight away a chance for one to "time the market".
sorry misread your post.killeoin said:Thats what I just said....
bearishbull said:sorry misread your post.
yeah but you cant know the exact time of such overshoots untill after they happen.
killeoin said:yeah but you could have a fairly good idea....
i.e.....9/11
Foot and Mouth
AIB after the Rusnak
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