The screw is being turned on the DUP

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cremeegg

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We had some visitors recently, from one of the small rich EU countries.

They were shocked at the idea that Ireland might seek to negotiate a soft border with the UK.

They see the WA as something negotiated by the EU with the UK, which includes major elements that reflect Ireland's interests, put in at Irelands request.

They take Angela Merkel's statement that she grew up behind a border and will not see new borders being imposed at face value.

Were Ireland at this point to seek to undermine the WA, it would be seen as very bad faith in the EU.
 

galway_blow_in

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And long may it continue.
Difference between then and now was back then, Ireland was an economic basket case.
Today its economy, and society, is fundamentally changed. With 16% of those who reside here not having been born here.

Illegal immigration isnt the issue, there has always been illegal immigrants. Mostly African, Asian and South American. Now the UK will be able to add Europeans, like French people, to that list.
Although listening to Boris fawning over the historical, cultural and economic ties between UK and France that simply does not seem realistic - to paraphrase Johnson "London is France's biggest city outside UK"

Reading between the lines, I do get the impression that the longer Boris spends in the splendid surronds of the Élysée Palace the drum-beating from the Northeast of Ireland becomes more muted.

As you correctly pointed out, the moneymen have no political principles. So it might be worth considering that the pound strengthening occurred during Boris's trips to Paris and Berlin and not Belfast.

Is Boris really going to splinter the economic ties between UK, France and Germany (and Ireland for that matter) in favor of the economic ties between NI and GB?
If you were a money man, which way would you bet?
We just need to not buckle until such time Borris no longer has any use for the DUP

Unfortunate to see elements of the irish media getting nervous
 

Duke of Marmalade

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He overplays the dissident threat also. The border wont ignite the flames anymore than it ignites them today, but it is a step toward igniting those flames. First a border, then a SF split, then an end to power-sharing (permanent), then an end to ECJ, then an end to the policing board, then an end to the GFA itself.
That is the walk into the hands of dissidents.
Project Fear? Or is it Project Terror?
EH said:
That is why neither the British nor Irish Governments should make pacifying the dissidents a matter of national policy.
Hear! Hear!

 
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Duke of Marmalade

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Eoghan Harris this morning;

'I believe the British government when it pledged last week it would "not put in place infrastructure, checks, or controls at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland".'

Im curious, if there is no need for infrastructure, checks, or controls at the border between UK/EU in Ireland, is there any need for infrastructure, checks or controls at borders between UK/EU in Britain?
There is no problem here. For a start the UK has no need at all for regulatory checks on EU goods. It is happy with EU regs, in fact, it believes they are OTT.
It might have to impose WTO tariffs but it does not have to enforce them. After all the UK wants free trade with the whole world. If cheap food is still available from the EU then that is no problem. They will want to enforce tariffs on cars and heavy machinery but that will not represent a problem. For example, EU sourced cars will have to be registered just as all imported cars in Ireland have to be registered and that does not require border infrastructure.
 

WolfeTone

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Project Fear? Or is it Project Terror?
Not at all, it is simply wanting to avoid a set of circumstances where one action has a reasonable probability of leading to another action that effectively unpicks the GFA.
While all the fuss is about the border, it is the ending of the jurisdiction of the ECJ is the elephant in the room.
Given your own background and knowledge of northern affairs, can you see SF sitting in Stormont, with the British Supreme Court as the final arbitrator of all legal and constitutional disputes? I cant.
 

Early Riser

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It might have to impose WTO tariffs but it does not have to enforce them. After all the UK wants free trade with the whole world. If cheap food is still available from the EU then that is no problem.
As I understand it, in the event of a no deal and the UK reverting to WTO rules, then the EU becomes a "third country". Any tarriffs that the UK applies (or doesn't apply) to EU imports, including food, would have to be made available to all other WTO members. So if it zero tariffs EU food imports it would also have to zero tariff South American (for example) food imports. Where would this leave UK farmers - including NI farmers?
 

Duke of Marmalade

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As I understand it, in the event of a no deal and the UK reverting to WTO rules, then the EU becomes a "third country". Any tarriffs that the UK applies (or doesn't apply) to EU imports, including food, would have to be made available to all other WTO members. So if it zero tariffs EU food imports it would also have to zero tariff South American (for example) food imports. Where would this leave UK farmers - including NI farmers?
It will follow WTO rules. But I think Eoghan Harris is right, Boris will keep his word on the border. If he were bluffing or lying then there would need to be now lots of preparations taking place - I think we can take it that no such preparations are taking place. He could do nothing for at least 6 months without the sky falling in. In fact the UK's greatest tactic in a No Deal is to do nothing. That forces the EU to be the aggressor - they can't allow No Deal to be a non event. And it will look to many in France/Germany etc. that it is the EU who are being bloodyminded. After all how can British goods overnight fail to meet EU regulations? But if Leo is good to his word he will tell the EU to keep their aggression out of Ireland.
Boris' plan starts to look not so crazy as the Green Groupthink pan nationalists/catholics keep convincing themselves.
 

galway_blow_in

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It will follow WTO rules. But I think Eoghan Harris is right, Boris will keep his word on the border. If he were bluffing or lying then there would need to be now lots of preparations taking place - I think we can take it that no such preparations are taking place. He could do nothing for at least 6 months without the sky falling in. In fact the UK's greatest tactic in a No Deal is to do nothing. That forces the EU to be the aggressor - they can't allow No Deal to be a non event. And it will look to many in France/Germany etc. that it is the EU who are being bloodyminded. After all how can British goods overnight fail to meet EU regulations? But if Leo is good to his word he will tell the EU to keep their aggression out of Ireland.
Boris' plan starts to look not so crazy as the Green Groupthink pan nationalists/catholics keep convincing themselves.

Eoghan Harris has never been right about anything, he's know as typhoid Mary in some circles

Harris only concern is pleasing ulster unionists, he fetishises the ulster Scots, Borris Johnson will cut loose the DUP if blue England desires it
 

WolfeTone

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If he were bluffing or lying then there would need to be now lots of preparations taking place - I think we can take it that no such preparations are taking place. He could do nothing for at least 6 months without the sky falling in. In fact the UK's greatest tactic in a No Deal is to do nothing
Soooo.....they leave the EU, but still act as if they are in the EU?
No ending of FoM?, apply EU law to all trade?

Is this the dream of Brexiteers?

The gaping flaw in this cunning plan is that the EU will act in accordance with the law. FoM will end for UK citizens on 1st November. Tariffs will apply to UK goods.

Far from being the 'aggressor' , the EU will be the ones to implement Brexit for the UK.
This is the insanity in all of this - the EU implementing a no-deal Brexit and the Brits thinking that this is aggressive.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Soooo.....they leave the EU, but still act as if they are in the EU?
No ending of FoM?, apply EU law to all trade?

Is this the dream of Brexiteers?

The gaping flaw in this cunning plan is that the EU will act in accordance with the law. FoM will end for UK citizens on 1st November. Tariffs will apply to UK goods.

Far from being the 'aggressor' , the EU will be the ones to implement Brexit for the UK.
This is the insanity in all of this - the EU implementing a no-deal Brexit and the Brits thinking that this is aggressive.
Let's stick to Ireland, Theobold. I think Boris could easily follow a do nothing strategy in Ireland for quite some time. Even smugglers and Bulgarians etc. need a little time to exploit any gaps. So that really puts it up to EU/Ireland. If EU similarly do nothing then Boris has won - this whole thing about the border was bogus all along. But the EU have to do something and that really puts Leo on a spot.
 
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Duke of Marmalade

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Are you suggesting that Boris should treat NI differently, separate....from the rest of the UK?
Don't be silly Theobold. The Republic will be treated differently from France et. al.
Not sure about Spain - I think it is in the WA what happens on the Gibraltar/Spain interface. Anyway no threats of dire consequences from that quarter.
 

Early Riser

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But I think Eoghan Harris is right
I haven't read Harris for a long time. Is he still finding time in his weekly column to complain that RTE haven't found a place on their panels for the most insightful political analyst of his generation? If he was less modest he would say the greatest analytical mind since Aristotle - and even this would be an understatement.

The fact that he was a longstanding critic of both John Hume and the peace process in no way undermines this. Sure, he was almost right when he forecast that persisting with it "will end with sectarian slaughter in the North, with bombs in Dublin, Cork and Galway, and with the ruthless reign by provisional gangs over the ghettos of Dublin. The only way to avoid this abyss is to cut the cord to John Hume" .
Nor does it take from his credibility that he predicted that the invasion of Iraq would result not only in peace and security for that country but an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. His sound judgement was demonstrated by his endorsement of his pal, Ahmed Chalabi, who played a major role in fabricating the "evidence" used to justify that invasion.

So he has some "insights" you say? That the EU should allow the UK to have its cake and eat it ?
 

galway_blow_in

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I haven't read Harris for a long time. Is he still finding time in his weekly column to complain that RTE haven't found a place on their panels for the most insightful political analyst of his generation? If he was less modest he would say the greatest analytical mind since Aristotle - and even this would be an understatement.

The fact that he was a longstanding critic of both John Hume and the peace process in no way undermines this. Sure, he was almost right when he forecast that persisting with it "will end with sectarian slaughter in the North, with bombs in Dublin, Cork and Galway, and with the ruthless reign by provisional gangs over the ghettos of Dublin. The only way to avoid this abyss is to cut the cord to John Hume" .
Nor does it take from his credibility that he predicted that the invasion of Iraq would result not only in peace and security for that country but an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. His sound judgement was demonstrated by his endorsement of his pal, Ahmed Chalabi, who played a major role in fabricating the "evidence" used to justify that invasion.

So he has some "insights" you say? That the EU should allow the UK to have its cake and eat it ?
You forgot how he used to brag about his friendship ( well Harris saw it that way) with arch neo con war monger Richard perle.
 

john luc

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Not an expert on international law but if WTO rules are to apply on 1st November and British government were to ignore it or think to pick and choose,then they would come up against fellow WTO country's taking legal action. Previous British government's have always upheld their commitment to international agreements and do not like to be seen to be outside the legal camp so to speak.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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I haven't read Harris for a long time. Is he still finding time in his weekly column to complain that RTE haven't found a place on their panels for the most insightful political analyst of his generation? If he was less modest he would say the greatest analytical mind since Aristotle - and even this would be an understatement.

The fact that he was a longstanding critic of both John Hume and the peace process in no way undermines this. Sure, he was almost right when he forecast that persisting with it "will end with sectarian slaughter in the North, with bombs in Dublin, Cork and Galway, and with the ruthless reign by provisional gangs over the ghettos of Dublin. The only way to avoid this abyss is to cut the cord to John Hume" .
Nor does it take from his credibility that he predicted that the invasion of Iraq would result not only in peace and security for that country but an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. His sound judgement was demonstrated by his endorsement of his pal, Ahmed Chalabi, who played a major role in fabricating the "evidence" used to justify that invasion.

So he has some "insights" you say? That the EU should allow the UK to have its cake and eat it ?
Wow! This was an eye opener, especially the bit about John Hume. I had to check this in Wikipedia and everything is as you say. EH is a deplorable egotist who wallows in thinking he is a supreme intellect by taking the contrarian view. Despite having been proven spectacularly wrong on many occasions. The mystery is that he has achieved credibility with the likes of Aherne, Bruton etc.
Anyway, my point was that I think Bojo will keep his word on the border. Not because he is an honourable man, he is only a shade behind EH in deplorability. But because it is such an easy tactic to follow. He can easily outstay Ireland/EU with this tactic. For if we too do nothing on the border it only proves it was all a bogus issue. The EU cannot let that happen.
 

galway_blow_in

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Lucinda creighton calls for a truce from the Irish government re_ the backstop.

Unlike Harris, she has credibility, I think she means well but London will see this as us buckling
 
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