Scottish mortgage is my biggest holding its done very well over the last few years I had no idea what the fund was made up of , I bought it because it was cheap from charges point of view and very liquid .
Hi Gordon
I would be more worried by these holdings than I would be by Colm's
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Having said that, Colm's is too concentrated for my liking.
Brendan
Gordon, I'm not looking for anyone to follow my lead. As I've said countless times, I don't claim to be the best investor in the world. On the contrary, I've given numerous examples of mistakes I've made to show that I'm far from that. Neither have I a burning desire to beat "the market" or "the professionals". I just want to get a good long-term return, which I define as a money-weighted return over my investing lifetime (net of fees) that beats risk-free returns by around 5% a year on average. I'm not worried about volatility along the way. In fact, I embrace it as a surer way of getting the target return in the long-term.I care about you but also anyone else who follows your lead,
Who does it make more sense to back?
I don't know much about them, but they are not Warren Buffetts. They picked high risk stocks which paid off. I am sure that there are other fund managers who had the same strategy, but they were unlucky and so we haven't heard of them.
Until he crashed in spectalour fashion.Neil woodford being one, he had a great track record avoiding both the dot com crash and the financial collapse in 2008, because of this he became the top fund manager in britain
Until he crashed in spectalour fashion.
A shining example of the fact that past performance is no guide to future returns.
I care about you but also anyone else who follows your lead, ‘DIY invests’ and then blows themselves up down the line.
Imagine I had to back one of the following:
- Colm ‘in his attic’
- The managers of a FTSE 100 investment company who specialise in tech, who identified Amazon, who have delivered returns north of 500% over the last decade, and who actually meet and grill people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos face to face
The former is short Tesla. The latter is long Tesla and increased their position this year.
Who does it make more sense to back?
The Expected Return from a single stock (or coin toss) is the same as that of the market (or a series of coin tosses)
Past performance is not indicative of future performance in investing, just look at Neil Woodford
Repeating a generic caveat and citing specific examples is not a coherent argument.
You, and others, seem to be misunderstanding what the statement means.
“Past performance is not indicative of future performance”; all it means that the future may not mirror the past.
But who is more likely to outperform? Specialist tech investors with a track record? Tiger Woods? Jeremy Chapman? Pep Guardiola? Warren Buffett?
Past performance IS a factor when considering whether someone in any field will perform going forward. To suggest otherwise is crazy in my humble view.
Gordon
I see Musk has announced orders for 250,000 of these Cybertrucks in the first week worth 10 billion dollars at their sale price of $39,000. Maybe we are all wrong to doubt him
In an earlier post, a few days ago, Colm acknowledged, something along the lines, that his concentrated portfolio approach was not suitable for the majority of folk. I wanted to quote the precise text with a view to applauding this admission - as I have consistently argued that Colm's approach is not appropriate for the majority of folk. Further, I had not previously noticed Colm make such an admission. Anyway, it looks like said post has been edited...….and the acknowledgement withdrawn?
But make no mistake: if someone were to ask me what I would advise, I would tell them to put their money in a low-cost passive world equity fund, where they would get lots of diversification, etc.
There are dozens, if not hundreds, of studies showing that the past performance of an active manager is a poor predictor of future results. Hence the obligatory regulatory health warning.“Past performance is not indicative of future performance”; all it means that the future may not mirror the past.
Of course, in general, past performance is absolutely key to assessing future prospects. Our whole examination system is based on it, our criminal justice system is based on it, HR policy from recruiting football managers* to promoting staff is based on it.Past performance IS a factor when considering whether someone in any field will perform going forward. To suggest otherwise is crazy in my humble view.
Gordon
There are dozens, if not hundreds, of studies showing that the past performance of active managers is a poor predictor of future results. Hence the obligatory regulatory health warning.
Only a tiny number of active fund managers have ever managed to outperform their benchmark on a sustained basis over anything like the long-term.
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