The Global Property Market

I'd have to add that

1. The really bad one-liner posts (e.g the "alarmist This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language" post above) are coming from both sides of the argument. By and large they are easily dismissed and ignored

2. A faulty premise building here is that only unregistered posters are making the "bad" posts. By Bad here I mean working against the principles outlined in the forum FAQ. I've seen some real beauties from registered users.

Purple said:

AFAIK the mods can find out if posts are all coming from the same source ccovich but since they do the moderating for free and (I assume) they all have day jobs, I would think they have better things to be doing.

Click to expand...

Actually the IP tracking features on vBulletin are different to those on ezBoard. On ezBoard the administrators (myself, Brendan and Zag only) could selectively switch on IP addresses viewing in order to occasionally (in the case of suspected spam/nuisance posting) check what IP address a registered or unregistered user was posting from. With vBulletin there is, as far as I can see, no easy way to check the IP address of unregistered posters. Obviously these will be received and perhaps logged by the web server but vBulletin doesn't seem to expose these. And, yes, we have better things to be doing than browsing through server logs etc.

Update: my mistake - it is possible to check the IP addresses of unregistered users but I just didn't know where to look...

I think that if you hold the opinion that house prices in Ireland are unlikely to succumb to a substantial correction, that you will not be swayed by messages on an internet forum. I fully appreciate that some people require more substantive evidence, absolute certainty of course could only be gained after the event. However I feel that a little predictive reasoning is fairly harmless on the part of those of a more sceptical bent. After all only time will tell.

Following on from my earlier contribution it has been decided to institute a .

Hot off the press: a global update from the Economist.

a drop in nominal prices is today more likely than after previous booms for three reasons: homes are more overvalued; inflation is much lower; and many more people have been buying houses as an investment. If house prices stop rising or start to fall, owner-occupiers will largely stay put, but over-exposed investors are more likely to sell, especially if rents do not cover their interest payments. House prices will not collapse overnight like stockmarkets—a slow puncture is more likely. But over the next five years, several countries are likely to experience price falls of 20% or more.

[\QUOTE]


http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4079027

Click to expand...

Yes...but for how many years has the Economist been making these same claims?

Gabriel said:

Yes...but for how many years has the Economist been making these same claims?

Click to expand...

Mar 28th 2002 is when they introduced the Global Housing Index. It has now expanded to 20 countries and will track facts and metrics on these markets out until 2010 (and beyond I would expect)

House prices will not collapse overnight like stockmarkets—a slow puncture is more likely. But over the next five years, several countries are likely to experience price falls of 20% or more.

Click to expand...

I like the slow puncture analogy this appears to what's happening in the UK (so far) and it gives adaptable people room to adapt and change circumtances.

I have just read the economist article and it has even frightened me even though I never believed in the housing bubble. Yes the economist has been warning since 2002 about rising property values worldwide. However it is the frankness of the article and the fact that it is the leading article on the front cover that is different this time. They must be convinced that the bubble is about to burst. They are even using the language of the more heretic publications like the "housing ATM" etc. When this bubble bursts it will affect alot more than "property investors". The dot com bubble was relatively limited in who was affected and it was great for the "housing investors" to have a good laugh at the foolishness of the "dot comers".

The Ecomomist had predicted about 20 of the last 7 house prices crashes in Ireland but I am firmly of the belief that they are right . Its just that this monster bubble has lasted a long time.

Of course they have picked up on the Tonka principle which is that the slump will be caused by Muppet Investors bailing out . I'll bill ye for that lads.

They are also looking at Tonkas big rule of thumb, the YIELD

" The most compelling evidence that home prices are over-valued in many countries is the diverging relationship between house prices and rents. The ratio of prices to rents is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market. Just as the price of a share should equal the discounted present value of future dividends, so the price of a house should reflect the future benefits of ownership, either as rental income for an investor or the rent saved by an owner-occupier."

Quite Quite . I hate being right all the time !

joe sod said:

However it is the frankness of the article and the fact that it is the leading article on the front cover that is different this time. They must be convinced that the bubble is about to burst.

Click to expand...

It's called trying to sell magazines.

I'd like to see a front cover showing an Ostrich with its head buried in the sand. The caption could be "It'll Never Happen".

Be especially appropriate if they had an Irish edition

Gabriel. If you are going to be the token optimist around here can you please do it with good cheer and general uppititudityness.

I find glum bulls most disconcerting !

I'll do my best Tonka but it's friday and I'm all hungover...

Righty Ho! . Stick to the pithy one liners and then press full engage on Monday !

We need a happy bull in here in the interests of balance .

I notice the Irish media have ignored the Economist article. The independet in todays business section referred to the fact that Irish people are some of the biggest international property investors which the Economist reported on. However it failed to comment on the leading article. Is it afraid of frightening its readership with such uncompromising and frank language.

Irish newspapers earn a huge chunk of advertising money derived from the property market. Think of the number of property supplements - domestic and foreign - plus ads for mortgages, jobs in related financials, construction etc.

I'd imagine there is a strong motive to publish in a way that supports the whole thing. There are some exceptions of course but a lot of the time the articles read like they were written by EAs.

I suspect you will see lots of positive spin even as the market falls.
e.g. House prices fell by 8% last year so now is a great time to buy before they start rising again .. and so on.

You may have noticed that the sky is blue over each and every picture of a house sold by SherryFitz . The sun always shines in Galway when Sherryfitz (Kavanagh) go out and about with their digital cameras. Never a grey or dull day , no rain and no puddles anywhere. The fella in Tuam is not so lucky i see .

[broken link removed]

for the thumbnails . You may notice peculiar white skies in Galway , i assure you they are real.

pages 90 91 92 and 93 in that issue but heck .........even in January !

Photoshop is what will keep those prices high youse lot can mark my words. Never mind them Black n Tans and their prognosticamations .

In the dock of Tiger Bay
On the road to Mandalay
From Bombay to Santa Fe
Over hills and far away
- Ian Dury and The Blockheads


"The worldwide appetite for buying property, whether in Paris, Los Angeles, or Bangkok, is feeding a price bubble that could burst.."

[broken link removed]

I don't see any reason why this or any topic should be singled out for banning or tackling. Lots of topics recur over and over on AAM. How many times have you seen "I have 10K to invest" threads.

Contrary to what people seem to think the different threads often throw up some different angle on the discussion e.g. "What is the house price to income ratio in Ireland anyone?"

This particular thread is very interesting (to me anyway).

It's pretty god damned obvious what a thread like "The Global Property Market" is goind to be about. If such threads annoy you, just ignore them.

One reason why new threads keep getting started is because Time Moves On, house prices reach new peaks, house prices rises slow, Factories close, budget's happen, comments are made about tax breaks, economists make predictions. All of these things will give rise to new opinions, new fears, new hopes and new Threads.

Just because we can't know the future doesn't stop us commentating on it. I don't hear people complaining about Sports Pundits or other journalists whose job consists of making predictions that are often completely wrong.

The whole world of investing is based in one way or another about making predictions. If speculation about property prices doesn't interest you, don't read the threads.

The most interesting predictions are actually just a case of pointing out paralells with history. Long before the Tech Bubble burst there were some excellent web sites pointing out parallels with previous bubbles. It's interesting and fun to read and discuss. If it's not your cup of tea, stop drinking it.

-Rd