The €24bn additional bank bailout - is it 100% happening?

But if you've no mortgage, what happens your pay? If you decided not to pay those mad prices, or you've been frugal and paid off your mortgage early, are you to be penalised?
 
DerKaiser said:
If we were to face up to the full truth now our economy probably would fail, it has to be admitted that finding someone to continue to fund us and playing along with their game is a tempting option when you look at it in a pragmatic way.
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This often gets repeated, i.e. the end of the economy and total failure. For this scenario to be true we would have had to have seen the same happen in Iceland. However, after 95% public vote against a bailout, banks quickly collapsed and entered liquidation processes and/or nationalisation (the worse option). Now Ireland's bond yield is about 50% higher, unemployment here is about twice as much as Iceland and Iceland returned to economic "growth" in Q3 last year. I'm not saying it is a walk in the park for them, but the country is in far better shape than Ireland is.

Moral hazard for one, but also practicality. 20% reduction in capital owed does not equate to 20% reduction in monthly payment. And how would this be financed? The average person would have to have outstanding mortgage debt equal to their income for this to even remotely balance. But if that were the case then people wouldn't be in trouble.

Complainer said:
But if you've no mortgage, what happens your pay? If you decided not to pay those mad prices, or you've been frugal and paid off your mortgage early, are you to be penalised?
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Absolutely right. This would be one of those "solutions" where the mistakes of a few were to be paid by everyone. Not a recipe for a good society.
 
Complainer said:
But if you've no mortgage, what happens your pay? If you decided not to pay those mad prices, or you've been frugal and paid off your mortgage early, are you to be penalised?
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Your pay gets cut regardlss of whether you have a mortgage or not. IMF are back in town and aren't tax receipts down from this time last year.
Anyway - PS pay has nothing to do with mortgages. If you have your mortgage paid off well and good. If you haven't and their is some sort of claw back in favour of the borrower - well and good too (for the borrower)

That's the times we live in.
 
I've just logged onto the online edition of the Irish Independent to be greeted with four separate articles headlined (sorry, don't know how to provide hyperlinks)

  • Confidence vote sparks new hopes of recovery
  • Credible stress tests inspires confidence
  • Signs of crises bottoming out as fall in house prices slows
  • €7.1bn hole in finances but State hits bailout target
Is such confidence justified?
 
Sim Two said:
Is such confidence justified?
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In my opinion a simple No.

Reasons:
1) Projected level of state debt by 2014 is €200-250 bn with an optimistic GDP of €160bn (2010 estimate is €145bn) is way too high
2) NAMA purchased "assets" at Q3 2009 prices; since then real estate has gone down another 10% or more, so NAMA is already in the red
3) ECB rate increases are coming soon, which will push more people into arrears and default, adding pressure on real estate
4) NAMA properties will eventually have to hit the market, especially if it keeps going into the red, adding even more to the supply side of real estate
5) Credit default rates for Irish debt is still increasing, meaning that international investors are simply not confident about Ireland
 

They are just included with the rest of the European banks. There won't be any surprises. The Irish stress tests were more severe than what these tests are testing.
 
RMCF said:
After all, this Black Rock crowd apparently were using the worst case scenario figures, and the €24bn figure was if house prices fell another 35% and X amount of people defaulted.
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pulled up this thread from the bank bailout period in 2011. The government holding in BOI is now below 5% and Blackrock are now the biggest shareholder with over 7% of the bank and the bank share price is back at its 4 year high, Great success
 
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