Sunday Times article: The whole of Europe is delusionally living beyond its means

Brendan Burgess

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A great article here by Matthew Syed


France, you see, has had governments of left and right and everything in between while delivering policies of stunning consistency for five decades. Since 1974 the state has run fiscal deficits every year. And the reason for this is obvious to everyone except, seemingly, those living inside the dreamworld. It is the settled and immoveable will of the French people to live beyond their means; to enjoy ever-rising welfare, social spending and subsidies while balking at the higher taxes, longer working hours and delayed pensions required to pay for them. The sovereign debt now stands at 120 per cent of GDP.
Barnier’s rather anaemic budget plan was merely to reduce this year’s overspend from 6 per cent to 5 per cent of GDP, but even that led to howls of outrage. Parliamentarians — ventriloquising for an electorate, every section of which has drifted into a state of endemic entitlement — offered a resounding “non!”. So the debt will keep rising, the population will keep ageing,
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The UK electorate is, if anything, even more out to lunch. Not unlike the French, we like to blame “useless” politicians, the electoral system or being inside or outside certain trading blocs, but it’s largely a distraction from the fact that voters have become ever more detached from empirical reality; voters who (as polls consistently reveal) demand Scandinavian public services with American levels of taxation, gleaming new energy infrastructure but not in my backyard, new housing while retaining the local right to veto and triple-locked pensions but not the bill.
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And this is what the world sees when looking at us: a civilisation that has lost the very qualities that fuelled its rise. Work ethic. Realism. An inspirational future orientation.
 
This could have been written about Ireland.

In the recent election all the parties were competing to be even more irresponsible than the next.

All the parties talked about how they would spend the €15 billion from Apple, but no one spoke about paying down the €30 billion which we borrowed for Covid supports.
 
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If Jack Chambers posted “Ireland” in the money makeover thread, there would be a chorus advising him to use the Apple money to pay down the (national) debt before insulating the house, changing the car, going on the foreign holiday of a lifetime or even investing it in his pension.

Our national debt per capita is quite firmly in the five worst in the world. It is regarded as manageable right now because of our gnp/gdp, both of which swung wildly in our favour over the last decade. Many of the factors influencing this were outside our control and a swing in the opposite direction, again due to factors outside our control, is entirely possible, leaving us with debt ratio that will drive the cost of borrowing sky high and cripple our day to day expenditure. Increasing our ongoing day to day expenditure to absorb our current very favourable balance of payments is crazy and will massively increase the shock when we inevitably have to start living within our means again.

The words of the article pointing out the detachment from reality, wanting Scandi welfare with Texan taxes etc., apply perfectly to Ireland. As you say it was noteworthy that no party in the recent election dealt with reality or attempted to manage expectations. Our ability to reward ourselves with a standard of living that is far beyond what we earn/deserve can’t and won’t last indefinitely.
 
This could have been written about Ireland.

In the recent election all the parties were competing to be even more irresponsible than the next.

All the parties talked about how they would spend the €15 billion from Apple, but no one spoke about paying down the €30 billion which we borrowed for Covid supports.
Very true...

The simple fact of the matter is that our county is on track to blow the entire Apple Money, plus the money put away into the ISIF, on one simple thing - fines (for not hitting our 2030 targets).


As for the €30bn that you've mentioned, that was borrowed to help during the Covid-19 period, it'll be convenientky rolled over and smudged into the overall national debt, just like Government has done with the debt raised to help with the Bank bailout!
 
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It is the settled and immoveable will of the French people to live beyond their means; to enjoy ever-rising welfare, social spending and subsidies while balking at the higher taxes, longer working hours and delayed pensions required to pay for them.
This is nonsense. The current account of the balance of payments is broadly balanced in France.

In layman’s terms the borrowing of the government is matched by the savings of the private sector.
 
This is nonsense. The current account of the balance of payments is broadly balanced in France.
How does that tally with this?
In 2023, the current account deficit reached EUR 28.1 billion, virtually unchanged when compared to 2022 (EUR 31.1 billion).

...

Consequently, the current account deficit was significantly higher than its average over the last ten years (EUR 15 billion).
 
The article mentions the last budget surplus in 1974, but before that there seems to have been at best patchy periods of budget surplus, and all of it clouded by post war reconstruction and funding. If this pattern of claimed fiscal recklessness is going on for 50 years and has resulted in a huge wealthy economy and well off citizens (even if they don't feel it), it's hard to see why they'd suddenly change.
 
How does that tally with this?
My best example of the impossibility of French finances is my mother, she received a pension from them having worked there for one year because the au pair family wanted her to be legal (in the decades after WWII) We couldn't believe a country could pay such a thing for someone on minimum wage for such a short period of time. It was increased by the amount of born children she had. The local gardai were bemused on having to sign a form to say she was alive, but they got used to it over the years. One time the French letter to her was actually for someone else, based in Morocco. Truly France is a munificent country.

One day somebody somewhere is going to have to pay back the banking billions pilled high with the covid billions, soon we will talk about trillions instead of billions.
 
And living abroad meant my husband got a state pension here highter than the full Irish contributory pension years before Irish state pension age because of his Irish work record, which triggered his company pension, and he’s due the Irish pension too based on his Irish record. That I haven’t sorted yet but it takes them six months to figure it out I understand.
 
Very true...

The simple fact of the matter is that our county is on track to blow the entire Apple Money, plus the money put away into the ISIF, on one simple thing - fines (for not hitting our 2030 targets).
There is alot of scare mongering about climate targets and fines, that is the least of our worries. The fact is that many other countries also will not be able to pay these fines and when push comes to shove they won't be paid. Do you think a potential marine le pen government in France is going to pay French climate fines when they have far bigger stuff to worry about. They will simply say they do not abide by the voluntary agreements the past governments signed up for. And the past governments only signed on for pr reasons knowing that a future government would deal with it. When the time comes they will all just blame China, trump and the gulf States for the collapse of the agreements.
Defense spending is now taking precedence in Europe over climate targets. Also with deglobilisation happening and the break away from dependence on China probably alot more heavy industries will be needed in Europe again .
 
The irony of posting to say that there is a lot of scaremongering about climate targets and then going on to portray a scenario that is pretty scary! If all happens as you suggest joe, the world we leave behind us will be screwed.

Climate change reporting is full of hysterical media inflated sensationalism. The climate will change to some degree, we will adapt and governments will fudge the fines or commit electoral suicide if they pay them.
 
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