Sterling against Euro

D

De Boss

Registered User
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Someone please help me!

Does anyone know if the sterling against euro situation is going to improve? And if so, will it be soon?

While I know that no-one knows the future, there are surely some trading experts in this field out there that have the experience to advise me.

I have to repay a euro loan with sterling, and its so bad that i'm falling short!!
 
Not being smart but its worth what its trading at. No more, no less.

No-one knows if it'll go up this week / month / year, or down.

Which direction is more likely? no-one knows.

You can gamble and wait and it could go for you or against you.

Even if anyone knew which way it was going to go, they would not be posting it on a board.

They's be too busy making a killing in forex.

So you have a choice - buy now and know what you are getting.

Or wait and hope sterling goes up, while taking the risk that it goes down.
 
De Boss said:
While I know that no-one knows the future, there are surely some trading experts in this field out there that have the experience to advise me.
Click to expand...
Believe you me trading experts (and there are fewer of them about lately, even though there are more who claim they are) aren't trawling through Ask About Money.
 
IMO the only sensible advice you could get would relate to your next course of action i.e. when to actually buy the euros you need.

Assumptions:

1. You need euros.

2. You need them by a certain date or dates.

3. You have a shortfall if you convert all your GBP to EUR now.

Questions:

1. How soon do you have to have euros?

2. How much is the shortfall as of today?

3. Can you make up the shortfall somehow? If not, what is your plan B?

4. If so, are you willing to bite the bullet and do that?

5. Or are you going to gamble and hope GBP comes good?

6. If it doesn't, what is your plan C?

7. Would you consider hedging your bets by converting x amount now at a known rate and gambling on the rest?

8. Are you basing your calculations on the best rate of exchange you can get i.e. not high street banks?

Only you can answer those questions and make the decisions therein. Much depends on how risk averse you are.

IMO anyone claiming to know the short, medium or long term direction of currency will always have a counterpart who believes exactly the opposite. Opinions are cheap but you are the one who has to live with the decision and the outcome.

If you are depending on GBP to come good at the right time for you, you are living dangerously.

Also, you would have to be psychic to know when it has hit a peak before sliding again.

Check out the historical graphs and ask yourself would you have known at the timewhen to call it. If you answer yes, then I think its time for a reality check.

Hope this helps in some way.
 
I was going to ask a similar question in a new thread but I think I'll post here instead.

OP unfortunately I don;t have an answer for you - I'm actually hoping that Sterling keeps dropping against the Euro (and Dollar), as buying things overseas has never given better value! I'm looking to import a car from the UK - when I started looking many months ago the rate was 1.47 - now it's 1.25!!! On a £10,000 car that's a saving of about €2,200 - so I'm hoping it will continue to slide!

Here is a graph: http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/GBP/graph120.html - a very clear downward trend - I'm no expert, but it does not look like it is going to change direction considerably any time soon.

Anyone else care to (speculate) share some of their wisdom and make a prediction of the likelihood of how low it will go, and when it will stop?

(P.S. This thread is probably more suited to another forum, I don't see its relevance to Mortgages etc - Mods?)
 

Anyone can look at forex historical data and point out what happened.

No-one can look at historical data and say what will happen i.e. if or when the graph will turn the other direction.

But if you want speculation then ok, I predict it will go to parity, on 21st June 2009, just after lunch
 
Not my field at all but I'll make an uneducated guess anyway.
I would have thought that there is more of a risk that British interest rates will drop than Euro interest rates - due to the property crash in Britain with its effects on their economy and the ECB remit of keeping inflation down.
I would imagine that the ECB will keep rates where they are longer than most people would guess - partially to prove their credibility.
Of course this might already be priced in - or I could be completely wrong.

I think there might be some financial people over at the property pin website or boards:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/
http://www.boards.ie/
who you might ask.
 
The predicted sterling interest rate drop is already priced in. Now what would put the cat among the pigeons would be a surprise drop in the Euro rate at the ECB meeting today. A survey of 30 economists were unanimous that there would not be a drop because of Euro zone inflation figures but the current exchange rate is now so severe that it might act as a driver. If they reduced today the Euro will drop like a stone.
 
 
(P.S. This thread is probably more suited to another forum, I don't see its relevance to Mortgages etc - Mods?)

Sorry, I probably should have explained. I just bought a house in Ireland and had sold my house in England. I wanted to pay the mortgage off as much as I could. Up to last September I could have had an extra 20-30 thousand euro to go towards my mortgage. At the moment, I would be at a huge loss. It's coz I was talking about the exchange rate for my mortgate that I went in this thread, but realise now it made no sense. Im new to this site - as you can see by the cock up I just entered before this reply. Forgive me, please!
 
Hi In similar situation...slight aside how did you deal with capital gains tax

Thanks
 
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