This is pointless. You cannot predict currency movements. Simply pick the means of conversion with the lowest commission.I've used a forex broker in the past, you can set a price to buy euro at any time between now and when you move back if it drops to that, if the currency is trading in a range with volatility around that and is at the higher end of that it means you take advantage of the time you have left to wait for it to hit a lower price in the range.
have 5 years left on a 25 year tracker (approx 1k/month inc insurance); no other debts so question 1 is - should we pay it off.?
question 2 is- is there a smarter way to bring this money back than simply transferring to our Irish bank account?
all thoughts appreciated
So how do you decide when to do the transfer?This is pointless. You cannot predict currency movements.
I'm buying USD via Revolut at the moment. I just transfer EUR 1,000 once a month to avoid fees. Market fluctuations are beyond my control and I have zero insight into them. As a consumer all I can do is minimse the transaction fee.So how do you decide when to do the transfer?
So what? You can never get a different rate than the one on offer at the point you choose to make the currency conversion. You can split it into a series of smaller transactions but the expected value is the same.Edit: even within a single day the currency can move in a significant range and as a percentage of 130k it could be significant, it's rarely advisable to just submit a market order in any market.
we have 5 years left on a 25 year tracker (approx 1k/month inc insurance); no other debts so question 1 is - should we pay it off.?
But the OP can choose when they do the transfer between now and July or any point in the future really, they are not forced at any point to make a conversion.You can never get a different rate than the one on offer at the point you choose to make the currency conversion
This presupposes that an individual consumer has any actionable insight into future market movements. They don't, and further discussion on this topic is pointless.But the OP can choose when they do the transfer between now and July or any point in the future really, they are not forced at any point to make a conversion.
Lets assume someone has no actionable insight, zero information.This presupposes that an individual consumer has any actionable insight into future market movements. They don't, and further discussion on this topic is pointless.
Good point, well made.Lets assume someone has no actionable insight, zero information.
In that case exchanging now or exchanging in July are equivalent from their perspective.
In that case exchanging now involves taking a position on exchange rates, i.e. that it is a better rate now than in the future.
Being willing to wait until July and setting a limit order at a lower price in the interim makes no assumption on the exchange rate at all, it just uses the optionality the OP has on deciding when to exchange in their favor. The lower limit might be hit due to normal volatility with the currency going nowhere but trading in a range as they do, if it isn't hit you just exchange in July as you would have anyway.
If you have no view on the exchange rate that appears to be a better strategy because you have a bonus chance of getting a low price due to normal volatility without taking any view on the direction of the currency.
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