Residential Mortgage Arrears and Repossessions Statistics: Q3 2014

[Brendan Burgess]

[broken link removed]

• The number of mortgage accounts for principal dwelling houses (PDH) in arrears continued to fall in Q3 2014 marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. A total of 117,889 (15.5 per cent) of accounts were in arrears at end-Q3, a decline of 6.4 per cent relative to Q2.
• PDH mortgage accounts in arrears over 90 days continued to fall during Q3. The number of accounts in arrears over 90 days at end-September was 84,955 (11.2 per cent of total), reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6 per cent. This represents the fourth consecutive decline in the number of PDH accounts in arrears over 90 days.
• Despite the fall in arrears over 90 days, the number of PDH accounts in arrears over 720 days continues to rise. However, the increase of 418 accounts in Q3 was the lowest increase recorded in this category to date.
• The total outstanding balance on PDH accounts in arrears over 720 days was just over €8 billion at end-September, equivalent to 7.6 per cent of the total outstanding balance on PDH mortgage loans.
• Some 109,911 PDH mortgage accounts were classified as restructured at end-September, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8 per cent. Of these restructured accounts, 83.2 per cent were deemed to be meeting the terms of their current restructure arrangement. The largest increases in restructures were again recorded in the categories of split mortgages and arrears capitalisations.
• Buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage accounts in arrears over 90 days decreased by 0.4 per cent during the third quarter of the year; this follows two consecutive quarters of increase in this category. This increase was entirely driven by accounts in arrears over 720 days which grew by almost 900 over the quarter. At end-September, there were 15,435 BTL accounts in arrears over 720 days, with an outstanding balance of €4.8 billion equivalent to 16.6 per cent of the total outstanding balance on all BTL mortgage accounts.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

The problem as always is that we don't know why the arrears are falling.

It could be because people's financial positions have improved and they are paying more.

It could be because they could always have paid more, but were choosing not to. Now they have chosen to get back on track.

Or it could be because the underlying situation is not improving at all, but the restructurings are just improving the reported figures.

It would be much better if we got information on how many people were servicing less than the interest on their loans. These are in more serious trouble as the balance they owe is increasing.

Brendan

 

[44brendan]

Arrears on the database only relate to current agreements. I.e. those who have made an agreement with their bank to pay interest only and who are in compliance with that agreement are not regarded as being in arrears as historic arrears woudl have been capitalised. Or as you say Brendan there may be a number of clients paying less than IO. however this type of arrangement would not be regarded as sustainable under the CCMA, unless the property was on the market as a voluntary sale.