Quinn Life SSIA 1 Year On

Great Stuff

This is great stuff !

I am really enjoying it, a good mixture of fact and fantasy, plenty of passion, some logic and the odd cheap shot.

Keep up the good work lads.

Troy

S'not fair on Toy, sorry Troy. He can't help it if he's a little lost. Too much CH2OH, n' Coke with Eamo. Makes it up as he goes along too!

Doggie's bark is worse than his bite

<!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> says<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote>Quote:<hr> <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> "Troy, corporate pension funds are very large and have an obligation to diversify across a range of assets ... SSIAs are small and difficult to diversify across a range of assets"<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--> Let me get this straight. Corporate pensions have an obligation to diversify!! Is that some legal constraint to invest against their better judgement, or is it because of the exact opposite legal constraint to act in the best interests of their members?!

<!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> "SSIAs are small and Corporate Pensions are big"<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> is a really disappointing contribution from <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->. Of course, you couldn't run your own individual SSIA on active managed fund lines but does <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> not realise that an SSIA invests in a collective unit linked environment many many times bigger than your average corporate pension. (Penny has just dropped. <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> must of course be referring to the QLD fund which would indeed be smaller than your average corporate pension ).

In any case, can I have some fresh opposition, now that I have disposed with <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->. :lol

I'll have a go...

Some gems from Troy:

<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote>Quote:<hr> Thank Zeus that only 2,600 out of 1.25 million SSIA subscribers followed Eddie Hobbs' and AAM's advice to invest in Quinn Life. <hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END-->

<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote>Quote:<hr> The point is that tracking the Eurostoxx blindly for a five year SSIA was daft as a brush in the first place<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END-->

And when asked why tracking the Eurostoxx was daft as a brush. <!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote>Quote:<hr> Coz its bombed out<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END-->

Why restrict your criticism to Quinn Life and Eddie? I would imagine that Irish Life and their RAIPIs have put far more customers into the SSIA Eurostoxx investment than Quinn Life. And Irish Life charged more for it!

Quinn Life offers their customers a choice of Eurostoxx, S&P 500 and the 20 largest Irish companies as well as bonds, technology and biotech!

By the way, Eddie was very critical of my recommendation of a balanced passive investment in Irish shares in preference to an investment in the Eurostoxx. I challenged him to explain why investing in huge European companies was any more likely to do better than investing in blue chip Irish companies. But I challenged him at the time and not with the benefit of hindsight. My recommendation of a balanced portfolio of Irish shares has turned out to be reasonable, at this early stage. But had Irish shares bombed more than comparable investments, I would feel no need to apologize.

I've reached the final!

Having disposed (rather easily) of <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Doggie<!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->, I find myself pitted against the <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Boss<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> himself.

I have noted his opening foray, which is distinctly lacking in killer punch, but I must consolidate my defences at this stage, no immediate response, the title of <!--EZCODE BOLD START--> The Great Debater<!--EZCODE BOLD END--> is up for grabs here and I am not going to make any rash moves.

Alcohol's my baby

SNOT, I would never touch that CH2OH stuff. Give me C2H50H any time.

Preliminary Attack

<!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Boss<!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->, what's wrong with the benefit of hindsight? If someone gives me a tip and it turns out to be a flop, surely I can complain! The only way to judge whether advice was good is with hindsight.:rolleyes

Referee, that is not my complete defence, just I think I caught the <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Boss<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> a bit offside there. I don't think I deserve a goal but I am a bit in front at this early stage of the final.

SSIAs

Hi Troy,

I certainly don't feel I have been disposed of, although I'll leave that to others to decide.

Your contribution continues to be totally off the mark. Comparing large very long-term corporate pension plans with small relatively short-term savings plans is complete nonsense. When I said it was hard to diversify SSIAs I meant because the rules prohibited you using more than one provider. Of course you could choose a managed fund ... as I pointed out myself.

The fact is that SSIAs are entirely different in objective and regulatory controls than corporate pension plans. Proof ? Well how about the fact that most SSIA-ers chose deposits, which is just about as undiversified and as un-gorwth oriented as you can get. The investment objectives and investment risks are entirely different, and it's therefore not at all surprising that the different investors (ie SSIA-ers and corporate pension trustees) have responded differently.

But rather than let you constantly move the goalposts in your arbitrary way, how about you answer my previous summary of this debate, which was:
<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote>Quote:<hr> Choosing an equity-based product for a fixed 5 year term is somwhat risky. That's why the providers recommended that clients opting for equity SSIAs should at least have some ability to retain their investments for a longer period should market conditions warrant it. Once a client has decided on an equity SSIA, the evidence indicates that it is highly likely that an indexed one will outperform an active one - about a three-in-four probability. A client choosing an indexed SSIA is best served by an index that is well diversified, and one in the investor's base currency eliminates currency risk. An index of Europe largest 50 companies would seem to be an entirely reasonable option.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END-->

Can you tell us which parts of this statement you disagree with and, precisely, why ?

NTMA

May I add one further correction to Troy's moronic poutings.

Far from being entirely actively managed, a visit to the NTMA website reveals that the national pension fund is actually 43% indexed. In fact, both the indexed US equity element and the indexed Eurozone equity element are actually larger than the actively managed element in each case. The active element wins out in Japan and the Pacific Basin, where markets are generally regarded as less efficient (hence active management more likely to add value) and in two global equity mandates, which presumably have the ability to trawl all areas of the world including emerging markets, where again indexation is less effective.

Troy keeps claiming to be winning this debate, even though there do not appear to be any posts agreeing with him. I certainly think he's talking through his horse's ass. Could other contributors perhaps post a vote on whether they agree with Troy's contention that choosing the EuroStoxx 50 Index for your SSIA is indeed as daft as a brush?

Re: NTMA

I vote that Troy's contributions have been generally as daft as Mr Brush McBrush, Brush St, Brush, Co Brush.

I hear Troy's next campaign is to persuade us that the Saudi's actually won yesterday!

Outnumbered

I am about to give this up through sheer weight of numbers.

A few passing comments though.

I feel I have let myself be pushed into arguments which I do not actually believe, or put another way I have been misrepresenting myself.

Thus, I accept that the evidence does seem to show that the historical added value of active management against their benchmarks is debatable, to say the least.

But I stick by my central point. EH/AAM/Boss definitely had no qualms in advising 5 year SSIA customers into the single dimensional Eurostoxx 50 index ala QLD.

The <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Boss<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> has argued that QLD in fact had a range of such options. That rather avoids the point which was that Eurostoxx 50 was promoted pretty well exclusively.

Wasn't this a dubious blanket recommendation (especially with hindsight)?:rolleyes

PS If Ireland proceed any further in this silly game of grown men kicking around a leather ball, the economy will be in serious danger (excepting the drink sector of course). The Saudis were most definitely the winners yesterday.

Re: Security Blankets

Hi Troy - You have this remarkable ability to take a view which has no relation to the supporting data. You really should consider a career in politics.

Check out the from the SSIA forum. There is <!--EZCODE BOLD START--> no recommendation, blanket or otherwise<!--EZCODE BOLD END--> for any specific QL funds. Each of their funds are listed, not just the Eurostoxx - So can you tell use where AAM or the Boss made blanket recommendations for Eurostoxx.

BTW, is it time for you to declare any conflict of interests?

Triumph for Active Management

Just had an updated perfomance sheet from Troy's (alleged) stable-mates at Hibernian re their Target 20 Fund.

The fund's return for the period 1/1/01 to 31/5/02 is quoted as -17.2%. Given this thread I wondered what the much-maligned EuroStoxx 50 had done over the same period. Which was -8.9%. A triumph indeed for active management! Guess Troy would characterise the Target 20 as having double bombed out. Hope he will be suitably harsh on the daft as a brush brokers who had the audacity to recommend Target 20 to their customers for SSIAs.

Not so Honest

Can’t say I understand your numbers honest broker. Quinn Life Euro Stock was priced around €1.30 on 24/5/01. Its now around 90c. That’s a drop of 30.76%. You quote a period from 1/1/01-31/05/01. From what I remember the EuroStoxx was higher in Jan 01 than May 01. So the loss would have been even greater.

Apologies

You're right, Bearish. I keyed in the wrong dates. The figure I gave in my previous post for Eurostoxx was for 2002 to end May. The correct figure for the full period is -26.4%. So maybe there something to be said for active management after all. Apologies to all concerned for the error, and thanks to Bearish for pointing it out.

There is no doubting it but the eurostoxx 50 index is decreasing. Since it recovered after Sept 11 it has bounced around between 3400 and 3800, but is now heading below 3200 down towards its Sept 11 lowest of 2740. I don?t know what the value of the QL units are (I presume that someone has been monitoring these!) but I assume that their value more or less (probably less) reflects the movement of the eurostoxx50 index. With an SSIA you (and I) are trapped into making contributions to a declining index. Each day our contributions will automatically lose value as long as the index continues to decline. There is no reason to believe that it will not continue to decline. Also when (if) it bounces back it will probably go back to the 3400 ? 3800 level (or lower). So if I were making lumo sum invesments I doubt that I would be investing in QL euro tracker until I could see that the index was on the up and going past the 3800 level. But as we have monthly contributions all we can do is get down on our knees and pray for a strong bull market for say the last few years of the SSIA period.
That being said, 254 a month is not that much. It?s the price of a good prostitute and a couple of bottles of champagne ? average expenditure for most guys. Let?s sit back and wait and see what happens to the index.

Off the Point

Troy, having read your submissions, there is hardly a statement you've made, or a line of thinking that stands up to the smallest scrutiny. Firstly it's clear you haven't a clue how Irish life's Consensus fund operates. Secondly you made similar sweeping statements about the national pension reserve fund, without the slightest effort to research. On both counts you introduced things that directly oppose your views!

Next you state that BB and AAM, and EH promoted the Eurostoxx as the preferred SSIA. Neither did, but what's new. Nowhere did BB in my recollection make such a statement. Nowhere did AAM do so either, in fact most contributors promoted broker company offerings. Finally the Consumer report written by EH on it's site does not choose any investment strategy at all. If I recall the Eurostoxx debate originally arose on TV, as an alternative for the small lump sum investor to the advice from full service Irish stockbrokers represented on the programme by Davy's and Merrion- a valid context.

In seven to eight cases out of ten, index tracking has beaten active management in the more efficient large stocks in Europe and US. But uninformed, and lacking the time or energy to study up, most people buy funds sold them, purely on past performance data, manipulated usually by picking a timeframe, usually a short one, and making wild interpretations. Just like you've done. Rarely are people told that most active management promises fail, and that a lower risk approach is index tracking. It's no panacea, and in a falling market it has no breaks, but in rebound and rising market it has no 'interference'.

You've taken a 12 month timeframe,ie one statistical set and cast your comments accordingly. You've used unresearched, and embarrassingly inaccurate examples to prop up your bias, and failed. But still you persist. I'd hate to be a client of yours. Were you trained over a cup of coffe?

I give up

The only thing I haven't received in this thread is a pasting from <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> Mithrandir<!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> but then maybe he is a paster in another guise.

I have a basic rubric in life, a minority of one is in the wrong, even if she is right.

All the world is against me. I sense a secret society of Troy watchers, looking for my least slip. I am afraid for my family.

But maybe I have developed a spot of Dunphy like megalomania.

Which reminds me, I feel emotional and tired.

I've a touch of C2H5OH on board also.

Before final sign off; somebody, I can't remember who, asked for a declaration of conflicts of interest.

I am employed in a humble capacity by a rival of QLD and Hibernian. I dare not give anymore away, lest my employer stumbles to my identity, in which case I truly would finish up without any conflicts.

Fevernova

<!--EZCODE BOLD START--> PS If Ireland proceed any further in this silly game of grown men kicking around a leather ball<!--EZCODE BOLD END-->

Troy - the leather ball [broken link removed]! I also take issue with your casual use of the term <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--> grown men<!--EZCODE ITALIC END-->! :lol

Troy we need you

Troy

Do not give up - we need someone to stir up the debate.

I think you did veer off every now and again but that's allowed. Equity investment requires careful consideration and I did sense a bit of "Eurostox50-great past performance-your only man-don't bother thinking about it" type of promotion.

Well that chicken has come home to roost.

Where customers have been sold on the basis outlined above, any institution selling likew that has a lot of soul searching to do.