Question on uk market

qwertyuiop said:
Because historically property doubles every 10 years or so.
In the UK property has risen on average 7% since 1950.
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The UK has seen its doubling in the past 5 years.

I would bet anyone here that UK property doesn't double in value in the next decade.

More likely a decade of stagnation with inflation eating into t he real value.
 
On average since 1950 it rises 7% a year.The point being over the long term it will rise inevitably.
And you're right. It probably won't double over the next 10 years.
By the same token I bet anyone that house prices in the uk will be worth more in nominal terms 10 years from now.
Most people would agree with that statement.
And that's my main point.
i.e. Look on the long term for property and you're still allowed take advantage of any short term gains by remortgaging.
That way you get the best of both worlds.

Even if it averages 4% a year compounded it will increase by 50% - which is a hell of a lot better than selling.
 
I have every confidence that the Uk will double over the next ten years, but I doubt Ireland will. The UK is completely different and Ireland has a massive property bubble and is being driven by the wrong drivers.

Property is no different from any other asset, you buy low and sell high. People seem to forget this. More money can be made playing the property cycles. I know people who sold last year in Ireland and have bought similar properties 20% cheaper recently and I also know people who are waiting to get bigger discounts.

You will never go bust taking a profit.
 
Since available records were calculated by the Deputy Prime Minister's office in 1945 property in the UK has doubled in value every seven years, with no exceptions.

I don't see any reason for this to change especially as :

a) We live on an island and there isn't an inexhaustable supply of land.
b) Divorce rate is on the increase.
c) The influx of foreign immigrants is up.
d) The average age of young adults leaving the parental home is dropping.

Even with the continued rise of interest rates I can only see rented properties becoming more popular which is good news for us 'buy to let' investors.
 

That is one of the funniest things ive ever heard. The UK is never going to double over the next decade. You are judging the UK property market against Ireland. The UK is in a huge bubble also.

Buy low sell high. Buying low in the UK would have occured back in 2001. As an example the house I lived in in Liverpool was sold in 2001 for £38k. Value now £130k-£150k.

You are totally ignoring the biggest issue to face the cost of property - i.e. how much people can pay for it.

Average salary in the UK is probably around £19k. Average house in the cheaper parts of the North around £150k.

Tell me 7-8 times the average salary is not in a bubble. Your having a laugh.
 
Of course it's a bubble, but you need to look further into how the market is driven in the UK. I'm not saying everywhere will double in the UK, especially in the North, particularly as lot of areas up North have been flat for while now and people have bought very badly in terms of apartments in citis like Manchester and Leeds where I'm sure prices will drop if they are not already. But prices nartionally have doubled every decade for the past fifty years. Obviously past performance is no indication of the future, but London is the main driver for house prices in the UK and is going from strength to strength; there is even talk of it taking on New York as the world's no 1 financial centre and this shows no signs of abating. Alot of the money that flows into the London property market is from overseas and therefore not as affected by interest rate rises. Also, in terms of fiscal restraint more money flows to London as a safehaven because its recession proof, whereas previously investors would have felt safe putting money in Manchester or Liverpool, but not in the current market. The bubble vis a vis house prices to wages is very evident in the North, but the capital is different due to the huge discrepances in wage levels in the UK between London and rest of the country. If the South East of England were it's own country it would be the 11th wealthiest in the world; it funds the rest of the country and operates almost as its own state with different economic fundamentals - no wonder its packed to rafters and bursting at the seams.
 
London has become a leading financial centre and structurally UK has been building too few houses

However some factors to consider

Post 2001 interest rates were cut to extremely low levels, at the same time China was exporting lower prices and hence inflation was contained.

These low interest rates have meant huge increases in all asset prices financed largely by debt. This financing boom has driven a London boom.

Higher interest rates will squeez London in 2 ways - higher mortgage payments and a drop off in financing boom.... lower bonuses etc

Chinese costs are relatively zooming up which means their export prices are now pushing up inflation. Cutting interest rates on way down will be more difficult.

Finally the amount people are spending on mortgages in Uk as % of income is increasing significantly.

London prices will long term increase however doubling in 7 years from here looks a big ask as we are now 3 years into a significant city led boom in house prices. And the lag effect of interest rate rises to date will only come through in 2008.

For example Commercial property experts have been warning on prices this year.
 
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