Post Election Analysis Shallow and In Depth

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Leper

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1. I am eagerly awaiting Joe Duffy's Liveline Poll taken over a week ago from over 65's in his audience of his monthly humour Friday. Joe Said the pole showed some staggering results. I understand the results are kept in a sealed envelope and will be revealed post election.

2. I'm wondering what way "our" AAM members voted. Did the two main anti public/civil service members (Purple and ATC) have any influence one way or the other?
3. Was the parish pump relevant?

I'll be tuning in from the south of Spain with bated breath.
 
the Anti public/civil service type vote never goes astray always finishes up in the pockets of the only two parties ever to hold power in this Country,in other words the voted for the very system they don't like,
They understanding above statement ,just annoyed when pointed out to them,
I voted and gave them a dig out today,;);)
 
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The exit poll has FF FG SF all on 22%....
I guess transfers will be key.

Was not expecting that...
 
SF have smashed the Unionist veto in the North, that was sustained and perpetuated in no small part by the partitionist parties of the South.

SF smashed the 2.5 party consensus in the South a decade ago, and now they are on the cusp of smashing the 2 party consensus.

If this poll bears fruit, we are truly witnessing a historic moment in Irish political elections.
 
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looks like Ireland voted for South American populism rather than European populism, maybe a taste of Sinn Fein is what the country needs like the girl that cannot resist the bad boy that beats her up
 
You know, two days since the election finished there are people still wondering what went wrong. Most of us know full well what happened. Somebody should tell Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin.
1. Difficulty in acquiring mortgages; even two professional people can't just waltz into a bank or building society anymore. Mortgages are like gold.
2. High Rents, especially in Dublin where the price of renting has soared out of control.
3. Landlords are pulling out of the market and have been for some years. Shortage = Even Higher Rent.
4. Health Service = Poisoned Chalice for years and all the talk about Sláinte Care is stale as we've heard it all before.
5. Universal Social Charge (USC):- Temporary Tax that has become permanent.
6. RetirementAge shoved out to 67/68 by people who can retire much earlier seen as Hypocrisy.
7. Housing Shortage = Another current scandal.
8. Most of us have kids who'll never live beyond an apartment.
9. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been running Ireland Ltd for nearly 100 years. We have full employment and are amongst the wealthiest nations of the world and still most of us don't have a spare bob.
10. Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar tried to brow-beat Ms McDonald live on television. Sorry Lads! This ain't the way to win votes especially when Mary Lou defeated both of you without breaking sweat.

I hear Mr Martin giving interviews in which he appears to change his mind by the quarter hour. Of course, he will go into power with Sinn Féin. We're not stupid, you know! If he wants another election shortly, he'll get it and Sinn Féin will increase its seats.

Labour's Mr Howlin is licking his wounds and wondering where it all went wrong. Look into the Labour Party, Mr Howlin, not outside of it and you'll see.

I'm still wondering what Mr Varadkar will do. I remember hearing him say some years ago that he would exit politics in his early 50's. I wonder while he licks his wounds is he considering this?

For the Record:- I did not vote Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Greens. I voted for the lesser know candidates as I did not wish to waste my vote.
 
You know, two days since the election finished there are people still wondering what went wrong. Most of us know full well what happened. Somebody should tell Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin.
1. Difficulty in acquiring mortgages; even two professional people can't just waltz into a bank or building society anymore. Mortgages are like gold.
2. High Rents, especially in Dublin where the price of renting has soared out of control.
3. Landlords are pulling out of the market and have been for some years. Shortage = Even Higher Rent.
4. Health Service = Poisoned Chalice for years and all the talk about Sláinte Care is stale as we've heard it all before.
5. Universal Social Charge (USC):- Temporary Tax that has become permanent.
6. RetirementAge shoved out to 67/68 by people who can retire much earlier seen as Hypocrisy.
7. Housing Shortage = Another current scandal.
8. Most of us have kids who'll never live beyond an apartment.
9. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been running Ireland Ltd for nearly 100 years. We have full employment and are amongst the wealthiest nations of the world and still most of us don't have a spare bob.
10. Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar tried to brow-beat Ms McDonald live on television. Sorry Lads! This ain't the way to win votes especially when Mary Lou defeated both of you without breaking sweat.

I hear Mr Martin giving interviews in which he appears to change his mind by the quarter hour. Of course, he will go into power with Sinn Féin. We're not stupid, you know! If he wants another election shortly, he'll get it and Sinn Féin will increase its seats.

Labour's Mr Howlin is licking his wounds and wondering where it all went wrong. Look into the Labour Party, Mr Howlin, not outside of it and you'll see.

I'm still wondering what Mr Varadkar will do. I remember hearing him say some years ago that he would exit politics in his early 50's. I wonder while he licks his wounds is he considering this?

For the Record:- I did not vote Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, Greens. I voted for the lesser know candidates as I did not wish to waste my vote.
Leper, have Sinn Féin offered credible solutions to any of those issues? Anger isn't a solution, it isn't a policy.
 
Leper, have Sinn Féin offered credible solutions to any of those issues? Anger isn't a solution, it isn't a policy.
Purple, you're fighting the election again. Newsflash:- The election is over.

People on hospital trollies, people unable to source a mortgage, people who are homeless, people who are overtaxed, people paying huge rents, people of no hope, people of little disposable income, etc etc couldn't give a whit about the parties who ruled Ireland Ltd for nearly a century and who have failed them. And you say they shouldn't show anger; most of the population is entitled to be angry.
 
Purple, you're fighting the election again. Newsflash:- The election is over.

People on hospital trollies, people unable to source a mortgage, people who are homeless, people who are overtaxed, people paying huge rents, people of no hope, people of little disposable income, etc etc couldn't give a whit about the parties who ruled Ireland Ltd for nearly a century and who have failed them. And you say they shouldn't show anger; most of the population is entitled to be angry.
I'm not fighting the election, I welcome our new terrorist overlords. I'm just asking you if they have solutions to the problems you have highlighted.
 
You know, two days since the election finished there are people still wondering what went wrong. Most of us know full well what happened. Somebody should tell Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin.
1. Difficulty in acquiring mortgages; even two professional people can't just waltz into a bank or building society anymore. Mortgages are like gold.
2. High Rents, especially in Dublin where the price of renting has soared out of control.
3. Landlords are pulling out of the market and have been for some years. Shortage = Even Higher Rent.
4. Health Service = Poisoned Chalice for years and all the talk about Sláinte Care is stale as we've heard it all before.
5. Universal Social Charge (USC):- Temporary Tax that has become permanent.
6. RetirementAge shoved out to 67/68 by people who can retire much earlier seen as Hypocrisy.
7. Housing Shortage = Another current scandal.
8. Most of us have kids who'll never live beyond an apartment.
9. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been running Ireland Ltd for nearly 100 years. We have full employment and are amongst the wealthiest nations of the world and still most of us don't have a spare bob.
10. Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar tried to brow-beat Ms McDonald live on television. Sorry Lads! This ain't the way to win votes especially when Mary Lou defeated both of you without breaking sweat.

I won't quote each point individually, but here would be my take on them

#1. Central bank limits here not FF/FG
#2. SF will address this by sabotaging the economy. Rents will drop like a stone and we'll all be happy.
#3. If the rents are so high why are landlords leaving the market? Hint, government interference, likely to increase under SF
#4. Do you really think SF would have an iota when it comes to fixing health?
#5. Nothing gets the left as moist as the prospect of raising taxes so I wouldn't expect much change here from SF
#6. SF supported legislation in the North raising the pension age from 65 to 66
#7. Agree with this one. I could see SF building more social houses alright. 2 things of note here (1) it will be interesting to see how the contracts are divvied out and (2) our national debt will increase even further.
#8. That's probably an exaggeration - most people will probably end up in a house but may spend longer in apartments than previously. Interestingly, apartments in europe are a lot more popular.
#9. I would argue that most people are too consumerist in nature these days. Lots of new cars, foreign holidays, full restaurants etc. We seem to have become accustomed to wanting it all. Of course, not everyone. Many don't have a bob, but I'm sure most if pushed could forgo Netflix!
#10. SF totally caught FF/FG on the hop I'll give you that. I would go as far as saying SF caught themselves on the hop as they could have ran way more candidates!
 
While the success story is SF, the other two FF/FG have no option in my opinion other than form a coalition, with Greens in toe, perhaps.
It is simply unconscionable, having vehemently ruled out coalition or negotiation with the party with most 1st preference votes, that they would also rule out coalition with each other. If there are to do so, it speaks volumes of a prevailing arrogance within the two traditional largest parties.
 
#8. That's probably an exaggeration - most people will probably end up in a house but may spend longer in apartments than previously. Interestingly, apartments in europe are a lot more popular.

It is obvious why if you have lived in an apartment in europe v here. In general they are better built with better storage, common areas, more family friendly and regulatory setup.
 
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While the success story is SF, the other two FF/FG have no option in my opinion other than form a coalition, with Greens in toe, perhaps.

It is simply unconscionable, having vehemently ruled out coalition or negotiation with the party with most 1st preference votes, that they would also rule out coalition with each other. If there are to do so, it speaks volumes of a prevailing arrogance within the two traditional largest parties.

I'm a big fan of democracy. I abhor everything SF stand for but, after a glass of very nice rioja, I've come to terms with the result. The people have voted and the vote should be respected. Given that SF won this election, rather than a coalition between FF&FG, I think that SF should form a government with either FF, FG or other parties. The people voted for SF and voted for change and that's what should happen. SF on their end have a clear mandate and should respect the will of the people and have the balls to form a government to deliver what they have promised. The ball is in SF's corner now. They either play or take their ball home again..
 
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SF on their end have a clear mandate and should respect the will of the people and have the balls to form a government and deliver what they have promised.

:)
Politics is a funny game. I think it was a short while ago, Friday in fact, that some would label SF unfit for government.
Now, some are egging them on, challenging their courage to form a government.

I do think they should try, absolutely. But with the stance of FF/FG it will be very difficult in my opinion. SF/Green/SocD/PBP and some Indos already sounds unstable from the get go.
But that is where political leadership and prowess comes into play. FF have been past masters of it. Mary Lou will have to earn her stripes here.
 
:)
Politics is a funny game. I think it was a short while ago, Friday in fact, that some would label SF unfit for government.
Now, some are egging them on, challenging their courage to form a government.

I do think they should try, absolutely. But with the stance of FF/FG it will be very difficult in my opinion. SF/Green/SocD/PBP and some Indos already sounds unstable from the get go.
But that is where political leadership and prowess comes into play. FF have been past masters of it. Mary Lou will have to earn her stripes here.
Mary Lou has shown herself to be well able. Time for SF to get off the pitch and grab a hurley. Senior hurling/camoige time now!
 
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I think that people voted for change and change meant different things to different people.

Housing, health, childcare, unequal distribution of wealth, climate change, transport, education, pensions, rural/urban divide, etc., were the concerns.

I really don’t think that people nowadays care any more about ideological left, right or centre, but only that these concerns are tackled.

They clearly have had enough of FF and FG not particularly because of their political leanings but because of their perceived shortcomings.

Sinn Fein have been given an opportunity. I’m sure that it is aware of how important it is not waste the chance to prove it is a credible alternative.

Otherwise it will be as dead as the proverbial Monty Python parrot.
 
I'm a big fan of democracy.

Fair enuff Firefly - but don't you think it's too important to leave it up to the votes of the people? Isn't democracy just a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve? Personally, I'm not so sure that we deserve to be governed that well. The pre-elections debates were a-la-fois low-grade, boring and depressing!

Ze line at the bottom is that a genuine politician holding and honestly expressing a couple of unpopular views will invariably get mushed at the polls. Conversely, the ingenuine complete bull-sheisse artist with the common (read populist) touch gets elected. So we reward bad behaviour and then wonder why we continue to get sub-standard governance?
 
I think that people voted for change and change meant different things to different people.

Well they are about to find out what "change" means ,I think they secretly thought they were getting fine gael or fianna fail in some role in the future government, that is increasingly unlikely now with both more or less ruling themselves out and leaving it to Sinn fein to do the running.
Maybe its some sort of Sinn fein minority leftist government, after a year or two of that people will have had enough especially if it coincides with a recession.
 
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