Conservatories that face south can make a contribution to the energy efficiency of a house by collecting heat on sunny days, the heat can then be shared with the rest of the house by opening the door to the house. When its overcast the door should be kept shut and if possible some form of insulating blind drawn over the conservatory. The conservatory then acts as an insulating layer to the house reducing heat loss through the part of the outside of the house which it covers. Heating a conservatory, from an energy efficiency perspective makes absolutely no sense. Even if you have very low u value glass you are still more or less heating the garden.
If you are heating with gas why don't you try your senarios for a few days each, taking meter readings on the gas usage. You would need to have similar weather conditions, if the conservatory faces south a bit of sun can make a huge difference. Also compare your gas bills with your neighbours without conservatories. Heating the conservatory may cost you a lot but it might be much cheaper than a proper extension or a bigger house.