Outlook for Property Market in Tallinn, Estonia?

geeb

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We purchased two off plan apartments in Tallinn, Estonia in 2006. We did visit the site before buying and were happy with the apartment location – just outside the old town in the port area.

The apartments are due to complete next month (March 2008) and we find that not only have the prices not increased over the last 18 months as we had hoped but prices have fallen by at least 10% as other investors start to move out of the market.

A second issue is that rather than being self funding as we had hoped, when rented there will be a total mortgage shortfall to be met each month of €900. This is primarily due to significantly increased interest rates available to overseas investors and the lack of an interest only option.

We’re fully aware that we broke all investing rules and that property investments should be self funding on an ongoing basis. We’re also aware that we were swayed by the hype of overseas investing and the great capital appreciation to be had (that boat has sailed!).

Rather than look back and say how stupid we were, we’d like to move forward and decide what’s the best way to move forward. We think we have the following options:

Option (A): Hold for the Medium to Long Term

Our fear is however that we’ll send over nearly €10,000 each year and prices will continue to fall and we’ll be throwing good money after bad.

Option (B): Sell One or Both Apartments at a 10% Loss

This loss will be significant. As well as the loss in the value of the apartments we also have to take into account all other fees associated with the buying & selling process. The total loss would be in the region of €70,000.

We’d really appreciate any advice particularly from anyone who has a knowledge of Tallinn.

Thanks in advance!
 
I know nothing of Tallin, but wherever one invests there are times to admit you got it wrong and cut your losses. At the moment you are in a position to subsidise the mortgages; that might not be the case in future. Take a hit now, in my opinion. Another lesson to be learned - spread your investments.
 
Hi Geeb

I researched Tallinn extensively in 2006 before deciding to invest in Lithuania + Slovakia instead. I have no idea how long it will take for the market to recover but in the long term it will be a good investment.

Re: your rental short fall- Have you considered releasing equity from your home or other property in Ireland?
You might be able to get lower rate and better terms (for example interest only for the first year) which could make you cash flow positive or at least neutral, allowing you to hold out for a recovery?

Otherwise 70,000 seems like a huge loss if you sold now- how much were your deposits? would it be less of a loss to walk away, loose your deposits but not have to pay the final 85% ?
 
We purchased two off plan apartments in Tallinn, Estonia in 2006. ........
Thanks in advance!

Your positive that its lost 10% of its value? how did you come to that conclusion?
Sell one at a loss, use the capital to repay your mortgage on the other over time, and when (if) the market recovers over the next 5 years your appreciation on the other should cover your loss on the first
Thats assuming youve purchased in a good location and the market isnt massively supplied - in which case it might not recover for a long time. I dont know much about that market in particular
 
All,

Thanks very much for the feedback. There isn’t an easy solution and we’re going to have to take the hit somewhere.

If we were to sell I’m not sure what price reduction we’d have to suffer. I suggested a drop of at least 10% from talking to estate agents but they have indicated that it may be more. It appears to be very hard to value properties at the moment since buyers are so thin on the ground and the only people selling appear to be those who drop their prices considerably from the peak prices of a year ago.

At this stage we’re thinking of trying to sell one of them and holding on to the other longer term. As GDE suggested this might be the best approach.

It’s been an expensive lesson!

G
 
Have to emphasise last post!-releasing equity from home in Ireland in order to subsidise a far-flung folly would be a very,very unwise thing to do.
 
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