Orlando Florida. Is now 18-03-2008 a good Investment Time?

Wahaay said:

[broken link removed]

Well, three years on it seems that now is an eeeeeven better time to buy in Orlando !

What's the real deal from anyone on here who owns property there rather than the newspaper spin ?

I'm thinking of a recce.

Click to expand...

I read this as "70% of peak prices" and not " 70% off peak prices"

That's a BIG difference.

I respect cnbc.com. They've got people on the ground. They think the recovery is a myth.

quote "The glimmer of hope that housing would stage a sustainable comeback this spring has melted with the winter snow. "


[broken link removed]

EDIT: Case Shiller has just published the latest quarterly survey for resale homes:
[broken link removed]

Quote "These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing."

To loosely paraphrase Warren Buffett recently: "The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time.” "A good investment is one where I never have to ask the sale value of the asset, because I'm happy with the cash stream it is generating."

I would define that as the essential difference between speculating and investing. You could say the same about property investment: you need to generate rental income for it to be an investment. If you can do that then fine, but relying on any capital appreciation may not be wise.

So I guess you should beware of getting sucked in with the hot foreign money, because there doesn't seem to be many local buyers, which is never a good sign. Oh and beware of the local taxes and charges of course. That can quickly make the cash stream negative.

A good investment is one where I never have to ask the sale value of the asset, because I'm happy with the cash stream it is generating."

I totally agree with Warren Buffett via Martin 77 above, if you acquire an income producing asset at a depressed price that produces cash annually after all costs then that is worth investigating and that is before any recovery is considered.

Florida is such a diverse market and is fraught with challenges that can stem from poor Home owners associations, area crime stats, rate of foreclosures, mold, etc etc...deal with a reputable agent who specialises in foreclosed properties within Condo communities and IMO you'll be fine, lots of value there now and more to come.
I used to be a big fan of equities until I got burned, I understand assets that sit in one place and produce cash, as in all matters the subsequent post sale management of the purchase is critical, there are reputable agents available so deal with the experts who have people on the ground.

Interesting statistics just out in an area of Florida I've been looking at which seems to show things are picking up.

Green shoots and all that.

Tampa Bay's existing home sales skyrocketed in March to levels not seen in nearly five years.

Maybe even better news for home*owners is that average sale prices also rose last month in several area counties.

Sales of previously occupied homes in Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties jumped nearly 32 percent, from 3,258 in February to 4,296 in March.

[broken link removed]

Just for the sake of balance.

Here's a link to an article written in 2005 entitled "How Sustainable Are The Forces Driving Florida's Latest Housing Boom" justifying why the Florida market was not a bubble, and concluding that "Higher home prices will not snuff out Florida's housing boom" and "Overall sales will remain strong through the end of the decade"

The economist making these predictions? a guy called Mark Vitner of Wachovia ...... do you think by any chance they may be related? [hint: Wachovia and Wells Fargo merged]

Although to be fair I also found some bearish quotes in articles dated last year.

I agree that there's only so much you can read into newspaper articles but when they're based on genuine statistics they're much more difficult to ignore.

I spent a week on the ground snooping around under the wire, talking to all sorts of people many directly unconnected with property sales and getting a feel for the vibes.

Cautious optimism but with a recognition that there's still a lot of bumping along the bottom to do is probably the best way to describe the mood.

OK. I'll take your on the ground experience over a newspaper any day

Would you say this feeling you got was mainly Tampa Bay (Gulf Coast) or Orlando or both?

I see gulf coast more for locals and retirement homes, and Orlando more for servicing tourist visits and theme parks, or do I have that all wrong?

tdflorida.com is website of teamdonovan who have a comprehensive report on sales in Orlando and Florida generally. You can subscribe and get the report every couple of weeks.
As an owner of a large home on a gated community close to Disney I'm keen to see how much money I've lost since buying the damn place in 2006.
Fortunately, compared to most properties in the Orlando area, houses in the top gated communities (or "sub-divisions" as they call them) have not lost as much as others. i paid just under $400k five years ago and I see similar houses in that sub-division getting 330-380 at present which is represents a far smaller fall than most properties in the area.
You can get the same sized house elsewhere for under half that price, but the rental income would be proportionate to the price. Better to go for a good rentable location as near to Disney as possible.A gated community with facilities -giant pool, gym,shops etc - attracts renters , especially USA renters who know these things.

It's very hard from looking at internet small ads to understand why one house sells for 100k and another that looks similar sells for 300k - just as an American couldn't understand from the internet whats the difference between Ballsbridege/North Circular Rd
It would be crazy to consider buying without an explorative fortnight in Florida.

In one way i regret buying a Florida property in 2006 as prices have fallen, but I probably would have bought something in Ireland or in Spain -or maybe Irish bank shares instead!
I'm glad I bought in a premium sub-division but perhaps should have gone for something smaller -a three bed townhouse or condo. I got carried away. Still, in 2006 an amazing sixbedroomed house, luxuriously furnished, in a private gated/guarded community two miles from Disney for the equivalent of euros275k seemed so cheap.
Today, in 2011 at about euros230-240k they seem incredible value.

(And,I repeat, you can pick up houses for half that amount which for your own use is wonderful if you spend a few months there,but not a guaranteed rental source)

Funnily enough Team Donovan were recommended to me as excellent no-nonsense realtors by a friend of a friend who also owns a property in Orlando.

I considered that area but eventually decided against it mainly because I didn't want to spend a lot of time and effort trying to rent the property out on a week by week basis to Disney-bound families.

Plus I prefer the beach and sea and I've always like the Gulf Coast.

I've picked up a Short Sale 2b condo overlooking the water in a very good gated community for around €120k - it was bought by the owners in 2006 for $385k.

Existing tenants who wish to remain for another year are paying $1400 a month rent - even after HOA and taxes I think that represents a good ROI.

Some of the deals on the 'net for Florida foreclosure property seem too good to be true! Anyway, as someone with absolutely no interest in Disney or Orlando, what part of Florida would be apleasant destination for holidays and a reasonbly priced area for property purchase? I would like the coast, but which part? Slim

It really depends on what you are looking to get out of your vacation, and what time of the year you will be going.

If all you want to do is be lazy and veg out on the beach all day, go with the Gulf Coast from about Clearwater/Tampa on down. The beaches are fab and it is hot year around. The water is very warm and the surf is very gentle compared to the mad waves, cold water and rough surf of the Atlantic Ocean. I have swam at lots of Atlantic beaches from Ft Lauderdale to Palm Beach to Miami Beach. I usually get out after 5 minutes as I get sick of the rough waves knocking me over, the very strong under currents, and the very rough shingle underfoot that will cut your feet to ribbons. The water gets deep very quickly, and is not kid friendly at all.

Avoid the Florida Panhandle. Prices there are cheaper, but it is where folks from Mississippi/Georgia/Alabama go for a beach hollier, as opposed to peeps from overseas. It is not called The Redneck Rivera for nothing. It is also NOT hot year round there. Florida is over 700 miles from north to south. That affects the weather. In the north of the State, it is not unusual for day time temps to be in the or 50's or 60's Nov to March. Not beach or pool weather at all. If you are making the trip from Ireland in the winter, and are expecting it to be hot you could be in for bad surprise. I have been in Daytona, Jacksonville and Orlando in Jan & Feb & they were not warm at all. Only in the lower third of the State are you guaranteed hot weather all year around.

The east coast has more to do and see overall, but prices will be higher, especially the closer you get to Miami. Do you want good shopping and fancy night life and lots of touristy things to do? If you do, then go with the east coast, as the west coast is quieter. Tampa/Clearwater/St Pete are nice, but you can see what they have to offer in about a day each. Miami is where the real action is at, and has a real buzz to it that you get off all big cities. I know Florida very well. I live up the road in Georgia, so holler if you have any more questions.

PS Factor in the cost of home owners insurance to your yearly bills. It used to be fairily cheap, but after all the hurricanes from 2005-2007 the costs have sky rocked. It used to be a flat rate per year, but now it is a percentage of the value of your home. I am not certain, but I think it is in the ball park of 5%. Hurricanes themselves are most common from mid August to mid October, so if that is the time that you are going, get really good travel insurance in case your flights are affected by airport closures or delays. Unlike Europe, airlines operating in the US are under no obligation to reimburse you for expenses incurred if your flights are canceled or delayed due to the weather.

I agree with Beffers in everything he says. Miami is fabulous. So much to do and a great atmosphere. Easy to escape to the Keys or drive across to Naples area on Gulf coast. (Naples is pleasant, good beaches, nice atmosphere, dear property).
Now's a good time to buy with cheap dollar (though reports coming through of prices now increasing in Miami).

I admit I'm saying all this to convince myself to buy when I'll spend a few months in florida this Winter at our house in Orlando - am planning on condo hunting in Miami but will have to take wife there to persuade her.

Remember that after a long flight/s you don't want to be too far from an international airport. Miami is very well connected to everywhere.

P.S. By Miami I mean -for the sunseeking vacationer ,Miami Beach .

(There's not much wrong with slightly further north in nearby Ft Lauderdale)

@Slim

You and other people might find the following site helpful for raw stats when trying to identify a general area to search.

http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/miami-beach/
http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/fl/clearwater/city-center/

It covers the whole of the US. The links I posted zoom in to Miami beach and Clearwater, as they were mentioned in the thread, just to give you an idea of the kind of stats available.

Could be useful to use as a pre-trip filter to see where it's worth looking in more detail.

The crime rates would be of interest to me. As a comparision, Miami Beach scores 14.16, whereas a smart neighborhood like Bethesda in Maryland, scores just 0.76. You can always argue about stats, but you should probably check on who your neighbors are likely to be. There's general appreciation rates for an area available for free, and detailed data if you pay a subscription.

Disclosure: I have zero personal links to this site.

Thanks to all who replied. Guess I fancy the Fort Myers area for some reason. Does that sound reasonable?

It's as good a place as any if you're looking for a place on the coast but nothing really beats doing your homework on the ground.

What you need to do is spend a week driving around the areas you're keen on and which match your budget and do the old-fashioned things like talking to realtors, people in bars, locals - anything to get a feel of a place.

I drove all over Florida on several trips over the last couple of years before choosing the area I wanted a property in.

A couple of things to bear in mind, however - Florida in many ways is like London in that you can have million dollar homes jut a few hundred yards away from poor areas with high crime rates.
The recent unfortunate deaths of two Englishmen in the supposed property hot spot of Sarasota bears testament to that.

The fear of crime amongst Americans is much greater that the chances of them being impacted by crime - tens of millions of tourists visit all parts of the state every year yet few become victims.

Ordinary precautions taken in exactly the same way as you would at home will see you safe.

And now really is a good time to buy if you're looking fora long-term investment. The very same reasons that brought people to Florida during the boom will eventually bring them back again - namely winter sun and the lifestyle.

ft Myers is fine enough - have you done a few tests on internet to see comparison of flights there -connections more than price?
+1 Wahaay on crime comments.
As a travel agent who has sent thousands to florida over 30 ys I can't recall anyone being victim of violent crime.Usual hotel thefts etc but can't recall anything nasty.